Keith Law on Taillon/Orioles

[Arthur_Bryant]

That seems pretty risky for a HS kid doesn't it? Is he more advanced than Loewen, despite being younger? I get the idea that it helps these guys make more money earlier, but why would you want to risk stunting your development (if you're a player).

For a HS kid, the big potential payoff under current rules is that he becomes a free agent before he hits age 30. Taillon was born Nov. 1991, so even if he is optioned down three times, he is still 28* when he finishes his sixth big league season in 2019.

This gives him a good shot at two major FA contracts.

Of course he has to be good, and he has to avoid a career-ending injury. But the potential payoff makes it a risk worth taking. Basically, the kid is set up with serious money at age 18, and sets himself up for BIG BIG money down the road.

EDIT: Checking my arithmetic, Taillon is still 18, so even if he spends three years in the minors under option, his last year under club control would be his age 27 season. Wow.

[waroriole]

For a HS kid, the big potential payoff under current rules is that he becomes a free agent before he hits age 30. Taillon was born Nov. 1991, so even if he is optioned down three times, he is still 28 when he finishes his sixth big league season in 2019.

This gives him a good shot at two major FA contracts.

Of course he has to be good, and he has to avoid a career-ending injury. But the potential payoff makes it a risk worth taking. Basically, the kid is set up with serious money at age 18, and sets himself up for BIG BIG money down the road.

I think that is looking at it from an agent's point of view more than a player's. I would imagine that the player is focused on improving so that he can make the club as soon as possible. So, if this were strictly up to the player I would think it would be in his best interests to not have a ML contract and risk stunting his development (as Loewen did). If Taillon is as good as advertised, he should have a very good shot at being on the team in 2014 anyway. If he's not, then it could be in his best interests to still be in the minors figuring things out. That way, when he does get to FA he has a better shot of getting a big pay day.

[LookinUp]

That seems pretty risky for a HS kid doesn't it? Is he more advanced than Loewen, despite being younger? I get the idea that it helps these guys make more money earlier, but why would you want to risk stunting your development (if you're a player).

Generally, I hate Adam Loewen comps. He could never command the baseball. I know he had great size and projection, but I sure hope anyone the O's take is more of a finished product than Loewen.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I think that is looking at it from an agent's point of view more than a player's. I would imagine that the player is focused on improving so that he can make the club as soon as possible. So, if this were strictly up to the player I would think it would be in his best interests to not have a ML contract and risk stunting his development (as Loewen did). If Taillon is as good as advertised, he should have a very good shot at being on the team in 2014 anyway. If he's not, then it could be in his best interests to still be in the minors figuring things out. That way, when he does get to FA he has a better shot of getting a big pay day.

Hard to say what the player is thinking. But 18-year-olds don't usually foresee adversity. I imagine that Taillon and his family know that he's a stud, and they envision him staying healthy and gobbling up the minors.

Health is really the issue. From all that I've heard about Taillon, there's no reason that he should need even three seasons of development, much less a fourth. But if he spends a season or more on the DL, then he might need those extra seasons.

[waroriole]

Hard to say what the player is thinking. But 18-year-olds don't usually foresee adversity. I imagine that Taillon and his family know that he's a stud, and they envision him staying healthy and gobbling up the minors.

Health is really the issue. From all that I've heard about Taillon, there's no reason that he should need even three seasons of development, much less a fourth. But if he spends a season or more on the DL, then he might need those extra seasons.

Good points. I'm not necessarily just talking about Taillon, but kids in general (especially HS kids) who demand a ML contract. I think the agents are abdicating their responsibility of doing what is best for the kids. The agent can afford to take the risk because maybe the next kid they sign will be the one that hits the double FA mega pay day if the first guy flames out. It's a shame that they can't get advice from a source who doesn't stand to profit off of them.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Good points. I'm not necessarily just talking about Taillon, but kids in general (especially HS kids) who demand a ML contract. I think the agents are abdicating their responsibility of doing what is best for the kids. The agent can afford to take the risk because maybe the next kid they sign will be the one that hits the double FA mega pay day if the first guy flames out. It's a shame that they can't get advice from a source who doesn't stand to profit off of them.

But it isn't always a bad idea. And we can't be sure that the agent didn't provide the info and the alternatives. The kid and his family may be taking a well-calculated risk.

In the end, it's his career.

[clapdiddy]

Wow...this would be great news if it's true. You can never have too much pitching.

[PBR Street Gang]

What, pray tell, are wunderkind Taillon's stats right about now? Anyone know?

[ChaosLex]

The Bucs are said to be focusing on Machado or a college arm.

From the same Keith Law chat :

Mike (Rutland, Vt)

Keith,Have you heard anything yet on the draft strategy the Pirates might use this year? Similar to last year?

Klaw (1:31 PM)

At a general level, yes, similar to last year. The difference is that last year, they saw two can't-miss guys, but picked 4th, and both were gone. Now there's one guy in another league, then a group of 3-5 guys who are all in the mix to be called the second-best guy in the draft, and I believe the Pirates are considering all of them but the prep arms. (They'll take prep arms in later rounds, like last year.) I wrote a few weeks ago that if you don't take Matzek at 4 you're not likely to take Taillon at 2, and I think that's still valid.

Good stuff, gents. Thanks!

[Stotle]

What, pray tell, are wunderkind Taillon's stats right about now? Anyone know?

The important ones (to the extent there are "important" HS stats):

47 IP

97 SO

Threw a no-hitter in which he struck out 19 of 21 recorded outs earlier this year against Conroe HS.

[PBR Street Gang]

The important ones (to the extent there are "important" HS stats):

47 IP

97 SO

Threw a no-hitter in which he struck out 19 of 21 recorded outs earlier this year against Conroe HS.

Here's some stuff my lazy self found in the Houston Chronicle. Looks like yours is more up to date.

Pitching

Win Loss Save ERA IP R ER K BB

6 0 0 1.91 22 11 6 58 3

[PBR Street Gang]

Taillon's own web page.....

http://jamesontaillon.com/

[Stan P]

Is Talion signable? What will he cost? I think that plays an important part in this.

He should be signable.

We should be willing to give him a lot especially since we don't have a 2nd round pick this year. We need to make sure we get the best guy available.

[hobbycars]

Let's not forget that the Bucs pick #2. They could easily snatch Taillon up.

Yep-and it sounds like they will. The Pirates are improving and I think this year they are going to try and prove they have a new approach.

[birdman57]

Everyone needs to get a reality check. If the consensus is he is the next Strasburg, then there is no way he drops into our arms at #3. Machado will be our pick:)