Draft Summary 2010

[hoosiers]

I thought I would do a little review of the top prospects selected by Joe Jordan in the recent draft. For the past few years save this one, I've prepped a Draft Preview article and am quite familiar with Joe Jordan's picks. For two years, I did write-ups on the draft picks based on web-research.

All of this is from an analyst's point of view. I am certainly no scout and try to base my opinion on an accumulation of inputs from various sources.

Some folks have been underwhelmed by this draft. Annually now, there seems to be a nice buildup in anticipation of the draft and then a let down regarding the Os draft as our scouting director passes on known "national" names in early rounds. Few franchises do down the list of available prospects and draft $M prospects three or four picks in a row - unless there is an accumulation of compensation picks. Still, at the end of the day last year, Joe Jordan had signed Hobgood plus three others to bonuses over $750k and plus six more to bonuses over $200k in big year for Os spending above slot.

Jordan tends to dance around within the top 10 rounds - spending slightly above slot, but not consensus Baseball America (BA) national million dollar talents through the 10th round though Jordan spent $1M on Arrieta in the fifth round in 2007, $600k on Bundy in the 2008 eighth round.

It seems every year I remind folks that the Os selected six BA Top 200 talents in the 2001 draft - Chris Smith, Bryan Bass, Mike Fontenot, Rommie Lewis, David Crouthers, JJohnson. Not much there. Pedro Beato was considered a pre-draft top 15 talent. On the other hand, Nolan Reimold was outside the BA pre-draft top 200. On the Os today are former top 20 picks Jeremy Guthrie, Corey Patterson and Lou Montanez who provided little to nothing to the teams that drafted them. Also on the Os today are multiple Joe Jordan picks including tonight's winner, Arrieta, and the saver, David Hernandez. Jordan has another pick in the bullpen (Berken) and another in the rotation (Matusz). Jordan is also responsible for the starting catcher (Wieters). The draft is a very difficult science and there are good picks (like one that takes a third round pitcher like Zach Britton who turns into a top 50 prospect) and bad ones (like taking Bill Rowell inside the top 10). It's more important to have faith that your scouting director is a good one with adequate funding and organizational support than to run down the BA Top 200 and complain about the top guys who slipped in the draft and we passed on as well - as much as I read BA, that's what I've learned.

Regarding the 2010 picks, some minor web-research yields the following:

Machado - consensus top 3 pick. Don't feel like doing a lot of research on an acknowledged talent.

Klein - third round - per BA (pre-draft 119, "three effective pitchers .... perfectly suited to work as a set-up man". Per mlb.com, "should get a chance to start at the next level .... can excel in relief ... if teams feel he's healthy .... that's the type of arm that usually gets drafted fairly early." Andy Seiler, mlbbonusbaby.com, "in my personal top 50". I pulled my notes from my discussion with Joe Jordan after the 2007 draft when Klein was selected in the 24th round - "premium HS talent ..... I like him a lot .... big, athletic, has upside as has not concentrated solely on baseball". Those concerned about JJ spotting HS pitching talent, take note of JJ trying to convert a 24th round pick into a top three round talent.

Hummey - fourth round - per BA, "well rounded player ... above average arm strength". BA's John Manuel, "elicits Lenny Dykstra comps ... has a chance to be CF as a pro if you believe in him". Hardball Times sleeper pick of the fourth round - "elite defensive CF .... last year 10 runs above average in CF in 60 games ... doesn't mess around at the plate." Seiler - "solid pick with signability."

Narron - fifth round - BA pre-draft 198, "tough to scout because he averaged two walks a game .... surprising power and solid hitting tools from both sides of the plate." Narron played in 2009 AFLAC HS All American game as one of top 40 2010 HS seniors. Maxpreps top player in state of North Carolina as of Feb 2010 - "graded by Perfect Game Crosschecker as the top infield prospect in the country for the class of 2010." Seiler - "good makeup and maximizes tools with heady play."

Anderson - sixth round - BA pre-draft 177 - "attributes are obvious ... build is stream-lined and well-proportioned ... FB into the mid 90s .... with easy effort ... just scraping the surface of his potential." Seiler - "has good stuff and #3 starter potential". Pitched in Northwoods League AS game in 2009. Keith Law espn.com insider article on March 29 - "established himself as potential Day 1 draft pick". I believe Anderson was inside Law's Top 50 draft prospects to start 2010.

I will on the later rounds later. Thanks.

[Hutman]

Good stuff Hoosiers, I really hope we are able to sign Narron away from UNC, on top of his talent you have a to love a kid who grew up in a MLB environment with his dad Jerry.

Considering we didn't have a 2nd round pick we got 5 interesting talents in the first 6 rounds, plus a kid who has the chance to be really special in Machado.

[PBR Street Gang]

Thanks Hoosiers. Good work. I'm interested to see what you find on Bridwell.

[LookinUp]

Good stuff Hoosiers. Have you seen any negative feedback at all? Keith Law in particular wasn't nearly as high on Mummey as your quotes above.

[bluehens45]

Complete rundown of day 2 from MLB.com Our 13th and 14th RD picks have fantastic numbers. Im also a big fan of Kenneth Wise as well. Sleeper written all over him.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100608&content_id=10944534&vkey=draftcentral2010&fext=.jsp

Round 3 (pick 85), Daniel Klein, RHP, UCLA: The Orioles redrafted Klein, who was originally selected with the 729th pick (Round 24) in 2007. The 21-year-old two-sport star redshirted his sophomore season at UCLA after having shoulder surgery, but appeared fully healthy in '09, when he excelled as the Bruins' closer. The 6-foot-3, 190-pound righty can throw four pitches for strikes, leading some scouts to think he may move back into a starter's role. Otherwise he may wind up rising quickly to the Majors as a reliever.

Round 4 (pick 118), Trent Mummey, CF, Auburn: Mummey missed the first six weeks of his junior season with an ankle injury, but was lights-out in his return to the Tigers. The 5-foot-10, 180-pounder hit one home run for every nine at-bats, finishing with 17 dingers, 54 RBIs and a .366 batting average. As a sophomore, Mummey won the Rawlings Gold Glove Award and made the SEC All-Defensive Team. He also led the Tigers with 17 steals that year and was 8-for-9 in steal chances in 2010.

Round 5 (pick 148), Connor Narron, SS, Charles B. Aycock HS, N.C.: In his senior season at C.B. Aycock, the 6-foot-3, 187-pound switch-hitter batted .317 with 30 RBIs, seven homers and notched a fielding percentage of .955.

Round 6 (pick 178), Dixon Anderson, RHP, California: The 6-foot-5, 225-pound hurler started 13 games for Cal in 2010, going 5-4 with a 5.17 ERA. He had been a closer in his redshirt freshman season, going 1-0 with a 3.98 ERA and three saves in 20 appearances. Along with his best pitch -- a plus fastball that tops out around 94 mph -- Anderson also has a sinking curveball and is working on a splitter. Considered a possible first-day talent, he is projected as a reliever in the Majors who may ready for his debut sooner rather than later.

Round 7 (pick 208), Matthew Bywater, LHP, Pepperdine: In a Draft pool light on good southpaws, Bywater is among the elite. He went 6-5 with a 2.40 ERA in 13 starts for Pepperdine in 2010 and broke a school record with four shutouts. The 6-foot-3, 193-pounder was projected to go by Round 5.

Round 8 (pick 238), Wynston Sawyer, C, Scripps Ranch HS, Calif.: The 6-foot-3, 190-pound backstop has had trouble behind the plate but plenty of success beside it. In his senior season he batted .400 with 10 doubles, two triples, seven home runs and 38 RBIs en route to Eastern League Player of the Year honors. Sawyer was a late riser after putting on 20 pounds of muscle in his senior year and improving on his defense, which still remains his biggest weakness.

Round 9 (pick 268), Parker Bridwell, RHP, Hereford HS, Texas: A three-sport star who also played quarterback and was on the basketball team at Hereford, the 6-foot-4, 190-pound hurler was recruited in football, but appears committed to baseball after making a verbal commitment to pitch for Texas Tech. In his senior season, he went 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 65 innings.

Round 10 (pick 298), Clayton Schrader, RHP, San Jacinto College North, Texas: A bit undersized at 6-foot, 200 pounds, Schrader was the closer for the top junior college team in the country. Working with a 92- to 94-mph fastball, a plus slider and an average curveball, he racked up 11 saves with a 2.73 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings for the Gators in 2010.

Round 11 (pick 328), Alexander Gonzalez, RHP, Boca Raton Community HS, Fla.: Gonzalez may not bring the heat, with his fastball maxing out in the high 80s, but he excels with his command. He signed a letter of intent to play for Oral Roberts.

Round 12 (pick 358), Ryan Hornback, C, San Jacinto College North, Texas: The Orioles' second pick from San Jacinto, Hornback hit .361 in his freshman campaign. Perhaps more impressively, he didn't commit a single error in 151 innings of work behind the plate.

Round 13 (pick 388), Jeremy Nowak, OF, Mt. Olive College: The switch-hitter broke school records with 99 hits (sixth in the nation) and a .446 batting average in his senior season. He also hit 17 homers and started the season with a 35-game hitting streak, the second-longest streak to start a season in Division II history.

Round 14 (pick 418), Michael Mosby, 3B, Wabash Valley College: In his sophomore season, he hit .451 with 18 homers and 86 RBIs. He signed a letter of intent to play for Western Kentucky in 2011.

Round 15 (pick 448), Joe Oliveira, C, Pacific College: The right-handed hitter batted .332 with five homers and 29 RBIs in 2010. He didn't learn to play catcher until his freshman year at Pacific, but by his senior year, he earned manager Ed Sprague's trust to call games, a rare circumstance in college baseball.

Round 16 (pick 478), Brandon King, OF, Fresno Community College: A 6-foot, 190-pound lefty, King hit .370 with 31 RBIs and led his conference with eight home runs.

Round 17 (pick 508), David Richardson, RHP, Hillsborough Community College: The 5-foot-11 left fielder and reliever for Hillsborough is projected as a hitter after posting a 9.92 ERA in 16 1/3 innings while batting .331 in his freshman season.

Round 18 (pick 538), Sebastian Vader, RHP, San Marcos HS, Calif.: With a lanky 6-foot-4, 175-pound frame, Vader is an athletic pitcher who also played quarterback in high school. An outfielder and closer for San Marcos, he signed a letter of intent to pitch for San Diego State before his senior season.

Round 19 (pick 568), Kenneth Wise, RHP, Santa Fe Community College: After two years in junior college, the big 6-foot-6, 225-pound pitcher is projected as a possible starter in the big leagues. His works with a fastball in the 89- to 91-mph range and also has a curveball.

Round 20 (pick 598), Matt Drummond, LHP, UCLA: The second Bruins reliever selected by Baltimore, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Drummond was 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA in 11 appearances as a redshirt junior.

Round 21 (pick 628), Scott Copeland, RHP, Southern Mississippi: In 14 starts for the Golden Eagles, the 6-foot-3, 210-pound senior went 11-1 in 14 starts and posted a 3.75 ERA.

Round 22 (pick 658), Tanner Murphy, C, Mountain Ridge HS: The 6-foot-1, 190-pound backstop hit .351 in his senior year and led his team with five home runs and 29 RBIs.

Round 23 (pick 688), Christopher Clinton, CF, Eckerd College: As a sophomore, he led the Tritons in nearly every offensive category and was fourth in Division II with 40 steals. His numbers dipped slightly in 2010.

Round 24 (pick 718), Timothy Adleman, RHP, Georgetown: The 6-foot-5, 205-pound starter was the Hoyas' ace as a junior, leading the club with an ERA of 5.71, opposing batting average of .296 and 66 strikeouts in 14 starts. He dropped his ERA to 5.51 in his senior campaign.

Round 25 (pick 748), Vincent Zazueta, SS, Arizona Western College: At 6-foot and 150 pounds, Zazueta is known more for his glove than his bat. The diminutive shortstop hit .270 with 16 RBIs while posting a .910 fielding percentage in 2010.

Round 26 (pick 778), Austin Goolsby, C, Embry-Riddle University: The Birds picked their fifth catcher of the day with this 6-foot-2, 185-pounder. After being drafted by San Francisco in the 49th round of the 2009 First-Year Player Draft, he returned for his senior year to hit .319 and lead the Eagles with 13 homers and 57 RBIs. He also recorded a .990 fielding percentage.

Round 27 (pick 808), Austin Urban, RHP, Richland HS, Pa.: It might be tough for the Orioles to sign this 6-foot-1, 185-pound pitcher, as he signed a letter of intent to play for Penn State. Ranked just outside the Top 200 by Baseball America, Urban has drawn mixed opinions about his future as a starter or as a reliever.

Round 28 (pick 838), Jaime Esquivel, RHP, South Houston HS: This 6-foot-2, 185-pound strikeout artist earned district MVP honors after helping his team end a 22-year streak of missing the state playoffs. The Rice-bound righty posted a 2.10 ERA in 2010.

Round 29 (pick 868), Cameron Roth, LHP, UNC-Wilmington: The 6-foot-2, 202-pound southpaw led UNCW with a 7-4 record and 2.98 ERA as a junior.

Round 30 (pick 898), Michael Rooney, SS, UNC-Wilmington: The Orioles wrapped up Day 2 by picking their second consecutive player from UNCW. The 5-foot-11, 170-pound senior hit .282 and posted a fielding percentage of .963 for the Seahawks in 2010.

[hoosiers]

Good stuff Hoosiers. Have you seen any negative feedback at all? Keith Law in particular wasn't nearly as high on Mummey as your quotes above.

Thanks for the comment. Before I get to some additional research later, I wanted to address this post. There is a reason these kids are not drafted in the first 50. I certainly do not mean to mislead anyone by providing glowing reports as if Joe Jordan has secretly drafted five of the top 20 talents in the entire draft in the first six rounds.

What I try to do is focus on the positive attributes noted by others because those probably hint at what drew Joe Jordan and his scouts to the prospect. Jordan looks for present and/or projectable major league tools, but he looks for upside. Jordan is not afraid of injured prospect (Beato, Berry, Adams, Klein) and it is a relatively common theme among write-ups of JJ draft picks to see phrases like "that type of arm gets drafted early", "just scraping the surface of his talent", etc.

[Duke2010]

Law was fairly critical in his evaluation of Mummey, but I wonder when he saw him. Perhaps Law saw him when he was first returning from his injury?

Mummey missed the first 6 weeks of his season, yet was still able to hit 17 HR's in the best conference in college ball. He's not a burner on the field, but he was good enough to be thought of as the best CF'er in the league last year. Sure, there were other guys that I may have preferred, but in the 4th round I feel like we got a guy who's at least a 4th outfielder or possibly more if his power translates. I'm interested in following this guy over the next few years.

[Stotle]

Law was fairly critical in his evaluation of Mummey, but I wonder when he saw him. Perhaps Law saw him when he was first returning from his injury?

Mummey missed the first 6 weeks of his season, yet was still able to hit 17 HR's in the best conference in college ball. He's not a burner on the field, but he was good enough to be thought of as the best CF'er in the league last year. Sure, there were other guys that I may have preferred, but in the 4th round I feel like we got a guy who's at least a 4th outfielder or possibly more if his power translates. I'm interested in following this guy over the next few years.

I saw a lot of Mummey this year. He may turn into a nice little pro player, but I would be astounded if he turned into a power threat.

[Duke2010]

I saw a lot of Mummey this year. He may turn into a nice little pro player, but I would be astounded if he turned into a power threat.

Is that because his swing does not translate well to wood? I'm not expecting him to be an outstanding CF'er with 30 home runs a year, but is it reasonable to hope that he could be a guy who plays above average defense while proving 14-18 HR's a year? That would be a valuable piece to a lot of teams.

Jordan selected Mummy in round 4 while some other impressive names were out there, so his projection may not be similar to yours, but I'm curious as to what kind of player you think Mummy can be.

[allstar1579]

Is that because his swing does not translate well to wood? I'm not expecting him to be an outstanding CF'er with 30 home runs a year, but is it reasonable to hope that he could be a guy who plays above average defense while proving 14-18 HR's a year? That would be a valuable piece to a lot of teams.

Jordan selected Mummy in round 4 while some other impressive names were out there, so his projection may not be similar to yours, but I'm curious as to what kind of player you think Mummy can be.

Ceiling? Aaron Rowand maybe.

[eb45]

Is that because his swing does not translate well to wood? I'm not expecting him to be an outstanding CF'er with 30 home runs a year, but is it reasonable to hope that he could be a guy who plays above average defense while proving 14-18 HR's a year? That would be a valuable piece to a lot of teams.

Jordan selected Mummy in round 4 while some other impressive names were out there, so his projection may not be similar to yours, but I'm curious as to what kind of player you think Mummy can be.

I don't think it's so much that his swing doesn't translate to wood as his strength doesn't translate to wood. With aluminum, his solid contact on pitches goes a lot farther, and with wood he can make the same contact and it won't go as far. I still like this pick, personally. Not a huge upside, but he could be fun to watch.

[Stotle]

Is that because his swing does not translate well to wood? I'm not expecting him to be an outstanding CF'er with 30 home runs a year, but is it reasonable to hope that he could be a guy who plays above average defense while proving 14-18 HR's a year? That would be a valuable piece to a lot of teams.

Jordan selected Mummy in round 4 while some other impressive names were out there, so his projection may not be similar to yours, but I'm curious as to what kind of player you think Mummy can be.

He has a swing that's upper-body-heavy. He doesn't incorporate his lower-half in his weight shift, which is likely to sap his power with wood. Now I'm not a swing expert at all -- that is, I'm not saying that my opinion should carry any special weight -- but this is what I see. With someone his size, I'm usually looking for a pronounced horizontal weight shift from load through swing that is going to help build momentum through contact. Someone stronger can use a wider base with minimal horizontal shift, instead relying on rotational power and leverage (think Pujols).

What I saw from Mummey was very good hand-eye coordination and a solid ability to get the barrel to the ball. But there were also a lot of defensive swings that are not necessarily going to turn into basehits when he faces better pitching with wood. He's a very good outfielder that should provide defensive value, so the bar for offense production is lower than a lesser "skill" position. But I see more of a gap-to-gap guy with mid to high single-digit homerun totals as a MLer. His ability to barrel is great, though, because it gives me some hope that if he's able to modify his approach and swing some, he should have the hand-eye to make hard contact.