Tillman vs Bergesen

[Sports Guy]

Hasn't Guthrie been a sub 4 ERA guy on a consistent basis? I'm not sure why Bergesen can't be. In fact, I already posted how Bergesen was a sub 4 guy his first year and was a sub 3 guy over the last two months. Isn't that consistent, especially when you take into account the arm problem he had when the spring started and the probably he had getting in sync in the first half. What constitutes consistent in your world? How many years would he have to have a sub 4 ERA in a row? If he had a sub 4 ERA next year would you call it a fluke?

Well, the idea that you are pointing out that he was good for 2 months of the season tells me a lot...How was he the rest of the season? Pretty poor.

Now, maybe his injury had something to do with that but he was ok in April and then was bad in May/June IIRC.

He was very solid in his first stint...But remember, he was still new to the league and he ended the season early...so, we don't know what would have happened in that first season if he was able to be seen more.

[SteveA]

I pretty much agree with what Frobby said... by a very slight margin, I chosen to deal Tillman. I think there's a higher likelihood that Bergeson is a contributing member of a good rotation (not just a back end guy) for a long period of time.

[Frobby]

Well, I may have been aggressive when I said Bergy's upside was a 3.75 ERA pitcher, if we are talking about career numbers. There are only 23 starting pitchers in MLB who have 1000 innings and an ERA below 4.00, and only 11 at 3.75 or below: Santana, Oswalt, Hernandez, Halladay, Peavey, Hudson, Cain, Zambrano, Sabathia, Wood and Haren. (Some of Wood's time is as a reliever but he does have more than 1000 innings as a starter.) But I certainly do think Bergy is capable of putting up 3.75 or better in a good season.

I don't buy into the idea that Bergy "is what he is." We already saw him throw a lot more 4-seam fastballs in 2010 than in 2009. He's still developing. He'll never be a big strikeout guy, but he may be able to nudge his K rate up a bit and it wouldn't surprise me to see his BB rate go lower than it already is, even though it's quite good already.

[Scrat1]

To play along with the poll, I voted Tillman, but I'd rather keep them both. We'd be selling low on Tillman and I think Bergesen is worth more to us than he'd bring back in a trade. For many of the reasons being discussed here, other clubs are probably going to be worried about Bergesen's future, despite the results. I think he'll be a 4.00-4.50 pitcher with maybe an occasional sub 4.00 ERA season, which is hugely valuable and if we're not getting a return that matches that sort of production, than we've got to keep him.

Hard to answer the question without knowing how other clubs value the pitchers, though.

[Sports Guy]

Lets compare BB's first 2 season(2009/2010):

K rate: 4.74/4.29

BB rate: 2.34/2.70

HR rate: .8/1.38

K/BB: 2.03/1.59

FIP: 4.10/5.14

xFIP: 4.42/4.90

LD%: 17.5%/14.6%

BABIP: 289/295

HR/FB: 8.3/11.9

str%: 65%/64%

swgstr%: 11%/9%

1stpitstr%: 61%/63%

P/PA: 3.59/3.49

If he pitches next year like he did for this WHOLE SEASON, then he is going to struggle. His LD% isn't likely going to be sustainable but I also doubt his HR rate stays that high.

But he doesn't miss bats.

He does throw strikes, get batters out in the count quickly and get ahead with first pitch strikes. That is all is very good to see. His BB rate is solid, even at the 2.70 level it was this year.

One thing I will say for BB is this...give him a very good IF defense and he should be able to be solid....but I do think he will need a very good defense behind him to succeed on a long term, consistent basis.

[Sports Guy]

Anyone with a brain realizes he didn't pitch the same way all season. It's obvious that he was a different pitcher in the 2nd half. And the pitcher in the 2nd half closely resembled the pitcher he was in 2009. Everyone knows about the injury to his arm while filming the commercial. If you wish to dismiss that as nothing go ahead. You have to use a little common sense when looking at statistics.

If his arm injury was that bad, it would have effected him in April...So, I think that excuse only holds so much water.

[Stan P]

I would prefer to trade Tillman over Bergesen for two reasons. One, I have more faith in Bergesen to be a good starting pitcher than I have for Tillman to achieve his potential as a good to great starting pitcher. Secondly, Tillman probably has more value and can bring in a better return.

[mweb]

If his arm injury was that bad, it would have effected him in April...So, I think that excuse only holds so much water.

And it did, or at least he was awful, so it can be thought that it did.

[mweb]

I like Bergesen quite a bit. I think he can be a 4-4.3 or so ERA SP who can eat innings.

Tillman is harder to predict as he has a larger range of possibilities. He still has the ability to be a #1 or #2 imo, but may also never make it as a starter. BB is likely to settle in as a #3 but could move up or down a spot.

I think I'd keep BB, but it'd be a tough call.

[Sports Guy]

And it did, or at least he was awful, so it can be thought that it did.

Right..My mistake.

He had a poor first 3 starts, went down to the minors and had a very good May. 6 starts with a 4.26 ERA. But he was poor in June and July.

I remembered it wrong.

However, I still feel you can't really blame his arm injury on his poor first half..I will agree that it probably had something to do with his poor first 3 starts in April.

If you take out his April starts, he pitched to a 4.51 ERA. I would expect him to be in that 4.5-5 range in most seasons with the possibility that he could do better in any given season.

[mweb]

Right..My mistake.

He had a poor first 3 starts, went down to the minors and had a very good May. 6 starts with a 4.26 ERA. But he was poor in June and July.

I remembered it wrong.

However, I still feel you can't really blame his arm injury on his poor first half..I will agree that it probably had something to do with his poor first 3 starts in April.

If you take out his April starts, he pitched to a 4.51 ERA. I would expect him to be in that 4.5-5 range in most seasons with the possibility that he could do better in any given season.

I wouldn't say a 4.26 ERA is very good, especially with offense down this year, but look at the stats you normally like to look at for May. You'd normally call that month very lucky.

You may not be able to totally blame the injury on his ineffective first four months, but it should be factored in.

[JTrea81]

I think the injury messed up his mechanics and once he was able to get those straightened out, he pitched much better.

[Roll Tide]

Tillman. Bergesen is more suited to OPACY with his groundball rate and is better at eating innings.

Tillman is also less polished and doesn't have as good a head on his shoulders as Bergesen does.

I thought about this & Bergy was my keeper for the reasons you mention. However I chose Tillman's higher ceiling.

[Avsfan]

I'm trading Bergesen

I believe he's a 4/5/bullpen starter anyway. He is the type of pitcher who has to be perfect to be successful....that's the thing about pitching, very seldom, are you perfect on a consistent basis.

[Frobby]

Right..My mistake.

He had a poor first 3 starts, went down to the minors and had a very good May. 6 starts with a 4.26 ERA. But he was poor in June and July.

I remembered it wrong.

However, I still feel you can't really blame his arm injury on his poor first half..I will agree that it probably had something to do with his poor first 3 starts in April.

If you take out his April starts, he pitched to a 4.51 ERA. I would expect him to be in that 4.5-5 range in most seasons with the possibility that he could do better in any given season.

I don't think Bergesen was hurt, he just wasn't in sync after starting spring training late. I think you point about him falling back in June and July after a pretty solid May is well taken, but I still have the feeling that he just took a long time to get his bearings.

Well, we probably will see next year. I'm pretty sure Bergy won't be traded, and I'm pretty sure he won't be filming any commercials this winter.