Tillman vs Bergesen

[Sports Guy]

Let's say the trade value to these 2 were equal.

A team has a player we are after and they say we could have player X for either Tillman or BB.

If you had to choose between which pitcher to trade, which one would you trade and why?

[Frobby]

Not an easy call, but I think I'd trade Tillman. He might have more upside, but I have a feeling that Bergy is going to be a 200 IP guy for a long time and that's too valuable to pass up.

[QBsILLEST1]

Bergy is safer, Tillman has more upside. Who woulda thought this would be such a hard question to answer back in 08 when Tillman was a top prospect and Bergy was barely a top 15 prospect for the O's.

I lean towards trading Bergy though. Bergy looks like a possible 200IP guy with a 4.50ERA. That is replaceable with maybe a $10M/year vet off of FA. If Tillman comes close to his ceiling he will be a better pitcher and far harder to replace through FA......

Tillman is getting better, and I expect him to continue to get better. Bergy has nearly as many questions as Tillman does. Who is the real Bergesen?

[JTrea81]

Tillman. Bergesen is more suited to OPACY with his groundball rate and is better at eating innings.

Tillman is also less polished and doesn't have as good a head on his shoulders as Bergesen does.

[bej6789]

Man this is a great question.

If Dave Trembley was still the manager, I'd trade Tillman. My uninformed opinion aside, I just have the feeling that Tillman's potential is vastly superior but he needs someone who will push him to the limit in order to reach it. Trembley wouldn't have been able to do that, or... I should say that I would feel a whole heck of a lot less confident in his being able to do that. Bergesen, to me, is what he is. BB's a #5 pitcher in the majors for the next 8 seasons, nothing more, nothing less.

With Showalter on board, I want to keep players like Tillman around. When you have accountability, you're going to see more results. Buck won't tolerate 5 walks a start, and thats exactly what Tillman needs.

Beyond the individual talents of each player, I'm also of the opinion that the Orioles don't really need a pitcher like Bergesen as much as they could use a guy like Tillman. As I've previously said, Bergesen's ceiling is pretty much established. There's definitely something to be said for knowing what you can get... but are the Orioles that much better off knowing they have a dependable #5 starter? The team is still in a rebuilding mindset, and players like Tillman are the ones they ought to be looking for. Yeah there's a strong chance that Tillman ends up not sticking, but the type of player we'd lose out on if he does figure it out means you have to trade BB. If the Orioles were a wild card team, you might prefer BB, but until that long overdue playoff berth happens... give me the risk/reward guy with Showalter any day.

[byrdz]

I'm liking Bergy's uptick in velocity. Rather trade Tillman. Just don't know what you're going to get for a launching pad.

[weams]

Bergy is safer, Tillman has more upside. Who woulda thought this would be such a hard question to answer back in 08 when Tillman was a top prospect and Bergy was barely a top 15 prospect for the O's.

I lean towards trading Bergy though. Bergy looks like a possible 200IP guy with a 4.50ERA. That is replaceable with maybe a $10M/year vet off of FA. If Tillman comes close to his ceiling he will be a better pitcher and far harder to replace through FA......

Tillman is getting better, and I expect him to continue to get better. Bergy has nearly as many questions as Tillman does. Who is the real Bergesen?

Curt Schilling

[backwardsk]

Man this is a great question.

If Dave Trembley was still the manager, I'd trade Tillman. My uninformed opinion aside, I just have the feeling that Tillman's potential is vastly superior but he needs someone who will push him to the limit in order to reach it. Trembley wouldn't have been able to do that, or... I should say that I would feel a whole heck of a lot less confident in his being able to do that. Bergesen, to me, is what he is. BB's a #5 pitcher in the majors for the next 8 seasons, nothing more, nothing less.

With Showalter on board, I want to keep players like Tillman around. When you have accountability, you're going to see more results. Buck won't tolerate 5 walks a start, and thats exactly what Tillman needs.

Beyond the individual talents of each player, I'm also of the opinion that the Orioles don't really need a pitcher like Bergesen as much as they could use a guy like Tillman. As I've previously said, Bergesen's ceiling is pretty much established. There's definitely something to be said for knowing what you can get... but are the Orioles that much better off knowing they have a dependable #5 starter? The team is still in a rebuilding mindset, and players like Tillman are the ones they ought to be looking for. Yeah there's a strong chance that Tillman ends up not sticking, but the type of player we'd lose out on if he does figure it out means you have to trade BB. If the Orioles were a wild card team, you might prefer BB, but until that long overdue playoff berth happens... give me the risk/reward guy with Showalter any day.

I like this part of your explananation.

[lint06]

I'd rather trade Tillman. I know folks say he has a better upside, but Bergy seems to have the proper make-up to get through the ups and downs that follow a #3 type (which is what Bergy looks like--hell, he looks like a top notch #2 sometimes). BB is the one pitcher I really like to watch---he's fast and goes after hitters.

As for the argument that Tillman has a better upside, well what is that except conjecture? It is informed conjecture, but I'll take the guy who has shown me the most thus far (generally).

[weams]

Man this is a great question.

If Dave Trembley was still the manager, I'd trade Tillman. My uninformed opinion aside, I just have the feeling that Tillman's potential is vastly superior but he needs someone who will push him to the limit in order to reach it. Trembley wouldn't have been able to do that, or... I should say that I would feel a whole heck of a lot less confident in his being able to do that. Bergesen, to me, is what he is. BB's a #5 pitcher in the majors for the next 8 seasons, nothing more, nothing less.

With Showalter on board, I want to keep players like Tillman around. When you have accountability, you're going to see more results. Buck won't tolerate 5 walks a start, and thats exactly what Tillman needs.

Beyond the individual talents of each player, I'm also of the opinion that the Orioles don't really need a pitcher like Bergesen as much as they could use a guy like Tillman. As I've previously said, Bergesen's ceiling is pretty much established. There's definitely something to be said for knowing what you can get... but are the Orioles that much better off knowing they have a dependable #5 starter? The team is still in a rebuilding mindset, and players like Tillman are the ones they ought to be looking for. Yeah there's a strong chance that Tillman ends up not sticking, but the type of player we'd lose out on if he does figure it out means you have to trade BB. If the Orioles were a wild card team, you might prefer BB, but until that long overdue playoff berth happens... give me the risk/reward guy with Showalter any day.

Curt Schilling

[weams]

Year 	Team 	        G 	GS 	GF 	W 	L 	PCT 	ERA 	CG 	SHO 	SV 	IP 	BFP 	H 	ER 	R 	HR 	BB 	IBB 	SO 	WP 	HBP 	BK 	HLD1988 	Orioles 	4 	4 	0 	0 	3 	.000 	9.82 	0 	0 	0 	14.2 	76 	22 	16 	19 	3 	10 	1 	4 	2 	1 	0 	-1989 	Orioles 	5 	1 	0 	0 	1 	.000 	6.23 	0 	0 	0 	8.2 	38 	10 	6 	6 	2 	3 	0 	6 	1 	0 	0 	-1990 	Orioles 	35 	0 	16 	1 	2 	.333 	2.54 	0 	0 	3 	46.0 	191 	38 	13 	13 	1 	19 	0 	32 	0 	0 	0 	-

[sangar]

I voted for Tillman but after reading this thread I'm leaning the other way, it's okay to be wishy-washy when you're as hungover as I am.

[weams]

Yeah, I might be leading the Tillman fan club but I'm not sure I would compare him to Schilling. Of course you are probably making the point that Schilling was pushed out of town in the Davis trade, partly because Hemond was unsure Schilling would ever calm down / work harder and meet the potential of his arm. Houston would make the same judgement later. I'm sure you are pointing out that we could really regret moving Tillman now before we firmly understand what we have.

I totally agree with that. I would rather keep him and see if he develops to what we think he can... even if he fizzles out and does not develop at all (costing us to lose his current trade value).

Tillman will be 23 next April, and has had major success at both the AA, and AAA levels. He has made just 23 Major League starts, and while his cumulative MLB era is 5.61, he has flashed his potential several times.

I agree with the logic that nobody is untouchable, but Tillman should be on that list of damn near close.

Very few people reach the type of career that Curt Schilling did. I hope we keep Tillman around until he works hard enough to see what type of career he might aspire to.

Trading Brad doesn't scare me the same way that that trading Chris does.

[Arthur_Bryant]

This would be a bad time to have to make that choice. When Tillman returned from Norfolk last month, he was a much improved pitcher, to such an extent that I would hate to bail on him just when he is simultaneously undervalued and looking as if he is ready to turn a corner.

IMO, Tillman is not far off from being a consistently successful MLB starter. His two-seamer is still evolving, but it shows a lot of potential, and if it comes around, I think we will see a much different pitcher snap into focus. I don't know whether that will ever happen, but IMO he is on the cusp of turning into the pitcher we have hoped he would be, and to bail on him now would be foolish.

Tillman is also less polished and doesn't have as good a head on his shoulders as Bergesen does.

An analysis of their mental makeup is so presumptuous and so far beyond your knowledge that it borders on being offensive. Critique their pitching, to the extent that you can; but you really should refrain from areas where you lack both expertise and basis for judgment.

You might note that Bergesen is two and a half years older than Tillman, and has 174 more innings in MLB--the equivalent of a full MLB season. A reasonable person might consider the possibility that the edge in age and experience could account for whatever difference in "polish" or maturity may exist between them.

As to what is between their ears... You are way out of your depth.

[sangar]

Yeah, I might be leading the Tillman fan club but I'm not sure I would compare him to Schilling. Of course you are probably making the point that Schilling was pushed out of town in the Davis trade, partly because Hemond was unsure Schilling would ever calm down / work harder and meet the potential of his arm. Houston would make the same judgement later. I'm sure you are pointing out that we could really regret moving Tillman now before we firmly understand what we have.

I totally agree with that. I would rather keep him and see if he develops to what we think he can... even if he fizzles out and does not develop at all (costing us to lose his current trade value).

Tillman will be 23 next April, and has had major success at both the AA, and AAA levels. He has made just 23 Major League starts, and while his cumulative MLB era is 5.61, he has flashed his potential several times.

I agree with the logic that nobody is untouchable, but Tillman should be on that list of damn near close.

Alright, now I'm convinced. I voted wrong.