O's not offering Koji arbitration

[Palmoripken]

Baffling move.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I guess they don't like the injury risk.

They're going to need another good reliever, though. Balfour, maybe? Though I guess that depends on whether the Rays offer him arbitration.

[MatthewW]

Stupid decision. By the way, assuming we don't offer Millwood arbitration, that will make 5 years in a row we haven't gotten a single compensation pick in the draft.

Not including this year, the Red Sox have had 17 (Billy Wagner (2), Jason Bay (2), Eric Gagne (1), Keith Foulke (1), Alex Gonzalez (1), Johnny Damon (2), Bill Mueller (2), Orlando Cabrera (2), Pedro Martinez (2), Derek Lowe (2)) the previous 6 years...

Names include Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Jed Lowire

[Johnny]

Unless they resign him, this appears to be a head scratcher. What am I missing?

Perhaps the thinking goes like this:

1) He'd probably maintain his salary if not get a raise through arbitration.

2) He'd probably accept arbitration because I don't see another team coming close to $5 million, so he would stay here and there would probably be no draft pick anyway.

3) That's a lot of money for a set-up/closer/middle reliever who tends to spend time on the DL and needs to be handled with kid gloves when he is healthy (How much do you want to bet the trainer runs every time Koji sneezes?)

4) He could probably be resigned for less money ($3-4 million?) or he can walk. I like Koji, but it wouldn't break my heart to lose him because.....

5) .... We have several experienced late inning guys who are some combination of; younger, less hurty, cheaper (DH, Berken, Simon, Johnson etc). We still have Cobra to blow saves. Perhaps we could spend that extra $2-5 million on a bat?

[Oriolesfan8]

Absolutely pathetic. And inexcusable.

They're either stupid or cheap.

When you're stated strategy is to develop players through your minors, because your competitors have a much higher payroll...

...and you're outspent by every other team in the AL East for international players

...and you consistently have the fewest number of draft picks of any AL East team because of awful compensation pick strategy

HOW EXACTLY DO YOU EXPECT TO COMPETE???

[Oriolesfan8]

And based on this article, and what we've heard from the team:

(1) They want to sign him to a one year deal

(2) He is seeking a multi-year deal

THIS IS THE EXACT SITUATION WHERE YOU WANT TO OFFER ARBITRATION

There's a low likelihood he accepts, and if he doesn't get a multi-year deal and accepts arbitration, we get what we want -- Koji on a one-year deal.

The only downside is that we may have to pay slightly more than we want to if arbitration doesn't go our way. That's a small risk an organization in our position HAS to take, for the chance to get a supplemental pick in a strong draft class...and potentially pick another Brian Roberts.

UNBELIEVABLE

[Hank Scorpio]

They'd better have a deal in place.

If he walks, this is inexcusable.

[VeveJones007]

Maybe that just means they are close to signing him?

That better be it. Otherwise, it's inexcusable.

[VeveJones007]

They'd better have a deal in place.

If he walks, this is inexcusable.

And Hank beat me to it.

[RVAbird]

And based on this article, and what we've heard from the team:

(1) They want to sign him to a one year deal

(2) He is seeking a multi-year deal

THIS IS THE EXACT SITUATION WHERE YOU WANT TO OFFER ARBITRATION

There's a low likelihood he accepts, and if he doesn't get a multi-year deal and accepts arbitration, we get what we want -- Koji on a one-year deal.

The only downside is that we may have to pay slightly more than we want to if arbitration doesn't go our way. That's a small risk an organization in our position HAS to take, for the chance to get a supplemental pick in a strong draft class...and potentially pick another Brian Roberts.

UNBELIEVABLE

Yeah, I don't get the refusal to offer arb. if the discrepancy is over length of contract. The Orioles are obviously unwilling to take the risk that they may have to pay Koji 5-6 MM if he accepts.

For this to make any sense at all, Baltimore had better be pretty damn sure that A) Koji would accept arbitration if offered, and, B) If BAL offered 3-4 MM in arbitration and Koji offered 6 MM or more, he would win.

Even still, it's only moderately defensible considering that a one year/5-6 MM deal for Koji is still better than some contracts they've given out over the last few years and, at this time next season, we could be right back in the position of being granted a pick or two.

[VeveJones007]

I guess they don't like the injury risk.

They're going to need another good reliever, though. Balfour, maybe? Though I guess that depends on whether the Rays offer him arbitration.

Which means that an arbitrator would likely rule in the O's favor and not give Koji a raise.

[Oriolesfan8]

Yeah, I don't get the refusal to offer arb. if the discrepancy is over length of contract. The Orioles are obviously unwilling to take the risk that they may have to pay Koji 5-6 MM if he accepts.

For this to make any sense at all, Baltimore had better be pretty damn sure that A) Koji would accept arbitration if offered, and, B) If BAL offered 3-4 MM in arbitration and Koji offered 6 MM or more, he would win.

Even still, it's only moderately defensible considering that a one year/5-6 MM deal for Koji is still better than some contracts they've given out over the last few years and, at this time next season, we could be right back in the position of being granted a pick or two.

Yup.

The Orioles were willing to pay a good but injury-prone reliever $6MM a year even though it cost them a 2nd round pick (Gonzalez), yet they won't risk doing the same (and for fewer years) for another good but injury-prone reliever, even though we'd have a chance to GET a 1st round supplemental pick.

[hoosiers]

And based on this article, and what we've heard from the team:

(1) They want to sign him to a one year deal

(2) He is seeking a multi-year deal

THIS IS THE EXACT SITUATION WHERE YOU WANT TO OFFER ARBITRATION

I am not sure how a reporter provides these two statements without getting additional clarification as to why we would not want to offer arbitration.

Koji should seeking a deal around 2/$8M give or take and he should prefer that to going to arbitration to us and winning, say, 1/$4M.

[McNulty]

Loud noises.

[Ven6]

Perhaps the thinking goes like this:

1) He'd probably maintain his salary if not get a raise through arbitration.

2) He'd probably accept arbitration because I don't see another team coming close to $5 million, so he would stay here and there would probably be no draft pick anyway.

3) That's a lot of money for a set-up/closer/middle reliever who tends to spend time on the DL and needs to be handled with kid gloves when he is healthy (How much do you want to bet the trainer runs every time Koji sneezes?)

4) He could probably be resigned for less money ($3-4 million?) or he can walk. I like Koji, but it wouldn't break my heart to lose him because.....

5) .... We have several experienced late inning guys who are some combination of; younger, less hurty, cheaper (DH, Berken, Simon, Johnson etc). We still have Cobra to blow saves. Perhaps we could spend that extra $2-5 million on a bat?

This.

And a note to point 1: players get raises in arbitration.