Comparing the Orioles' first half/second half grades

[Frobby]

This is a reconstruction of an OP I put together last weekend, but unfortunately it got eaten by my computer when I tried to post it.

At the 81-game mark (through July 3), I posted a thread giving grades to each of the players, and posting their first-half stats and some comments. I thought it would be interesting to do the same with the second half (beginning July 4), juxtaposed with my earlier grades and comments. In this post, I'll focus on the position players who were with the team all year, and in subsequent posts I'll do the pitchers and the players who joined the team in the second half. I'll also post separately some comments on the team as a whole in the two halves, though looking at the individual players, the team comments are going to be pretty obvious. Please note that all grades are on a curve, considering my expectations for the player before the season started.

Chris Davis, 1st half: .242/.350/.512, 21 HR, 56 RBI, 2.5 rWAR: B. Offensively, he's capable of a better batting average, but he is drawing his walks and hitting about the expected number of homers. Defensively, he's been outstanding IMO, and better than I expected.

2nd half: .198/.313/.403, 17 HR, 28 RBI, 0.5 rWAR: D. The power and the walks were OK in the second half, but look at his HR/RBI ratio. Solo city!

Jonathan Schoop, 1st half: .301/.331/.510, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 2.1 rWAR: A-. He's about at the very top of the spectrum of what I would have expected offensively. Defensively, he's made a few mistakes that keep my from giving him an unqualified A. But I'm really happy with his performance.

2nd half: .233/.265/.399, 12 HR, 35 RBI, 0.0 rWAR: D-. Huge step backwards by Schoop in the second half, and his plate discipline seemed to get worse and worse. 0.0 rWAR says it all. I think Buck made a big mistake playing Schoop all 162 games.

Manny Machado, 1st half: .329/.384/.592, 18 HR, 50 RBI, 4.1 rWAR: A. He's having an MVP-caliber season. I would have given him an A+, except for a few baserunning mistakes and plays where he didn't hustle as much as he should have. Still, he's been absolutely tremendous.

2nd half: .259/.303/.475, 19 HR, 46 RBI, 2.6 rWAR: B-. That might seem to be a harsh grade for a guy who put up 2.6 rWAR in half a season, but this is Manny we're talking about. His plate discipline slipped and he seemed to get homer-happy. His defense also slipped a little.

J.J. Hardy, 1st half: .241/.274/.358, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 0.3 rWAR: C-. He played much better before his broken foot (.701 OPS vs. .538 OPS). Hopefully he can pick it up in the second half.

2nd half: .284/.326/.433, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 1.6 rWAR: B+. One of the few second half bright spots. He was vintage JJ Hardy in the second half, minus a little bit of power. I'd gladly take a full season like that in 2017.

Matt Wieters, 1st half: .268/.321/.444, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 1.0 rWAR: B+. He's pretty much the pre-TJ Wieters, and has had a number of key hits in important situations.

2nd half: .220/.285/.376, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 0.7 rWAR: C. BA slipped a lot but he continued to get a lot of his hits when they counted most. He also played a lot as Joseph was unable to contribute offensively.

Caleb Joseph, 1st half: .174/.240/.203, 0 HR, 0 RBI, -0.3 rWAR: D-. I'm being charitable here because I think Joseph has been credible defensively, though not up to last year's standards. His offense has been pathetic. There's no other way to say it.

2nd half: .175/.188/.190, 0 HR, 0 RBI, -0.7 rWAR: F. He was so bad, he eventually got shipped to Norfolk. Total fail.

Hyun Soo Kim, 1st half: .338/.423/.477, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 1.0 rWAR: A. He's exceeded my expectations by a lot on offense. He's about what I expected on defense.

2nd half: .274/.350/.377, 3 HR, 11 RBI, -0.4 rWAR: C+. His offensive numbers were about what I'd hoped for going into the season, but his defense wasn't too good, hence the negative rWAR in the second half.

Adam Jones, 1st half: .261/.310/.455, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 0.8 rWAR: C+. His power stats are decent after a red-hot June, but his slash line is lower than normal and his defense is down a bit too. I hold Jones to a high standard, hence the low grade on the curve.

2nd half: .269/.310/.417, 13 HR, 32 rbi, 0.3 rWAR: C. Slightly less productive on both sides of the ball.

Mark Trumbo, 1st half: .281/.326/.559, 24 HR, 62 RBI, 1.6 rWAR: A-. His offense has exceeded my expectations and has been about as good as I could have expected. Defensively, I had fairly modest expectations, but honestly, he's been a bit worse than I hoped.

2nd half: .228/.303/.509, 23 HR, 46 RBI, 0.0 rWAR: B-. He has a reputation as a first-half hitter and his BA/OBP lived up to that, but the power kept coming and he had a lot of timely hits. His defense, bad in the first half, got worse in the second half IMO.

Joey Rickard, 1st half:.264/.320/.381, 5 HR, 16 RBI, -0.1 rWAR: B. I'm sure I would have said that if he posted a .700 OPS I'd be very satisfied. I think his defense has gotten better as he has adjusted to playing in major league stadiums.

2nd half: .308/.308/.346, 0 HR, 3 RBI: Incomplete. He only played 10 games in the second half. I think the team missed having him in the mix, especially considering the 2nd half performance of the next player on the list.

Nolan Reimold, 1st half: .279/.336/.459, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 0.6 rWAR: B. About what I'd expected, or maybe slightly better. He's losing the playing time battle.

2nd half: .136/.247/.222, 2 HR, 4 RBI, -1.0 rWAR: F. Handed an opportunity for more 2nd half playing time with Rickard on the DL, Reimold wet the bed, forcing the Pearce trade and other OF acquisitions. I don't see him on the team next year.

Pedro Alvarez, 1st half: .241/.317/.461, 9 HR, 26 RBI, -0.1 rWAR: B-. He's been pretty much as I expected, and I'm factoring in the fact that he's normally a better hitter in the second half.

2nd half: .256/.326/.547, 13 HR, 23 RBI, 0.8 rWAR: B+. Alvarez lived up to his rep as a second half hitter. I probably would have graded him slightly higher if so many of his homers hadn't been solo shots.

Ryan Flaherty, 1st half: .233/.313/.353, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 0.7 rWAR: B. He's played wherever we needed defensively and held his own, and his OBP is a bit higher than normal, but pretty much it's business as usual with Flaherty.

2nd half: .171/.227/.220, 0 HR, 3 RBI, -0.3 rWAR: C-. The entire starting infield was healthy for the whole second half, so Flash barely played, getting only 45 PA. For that reason, I'm being a little charitable here.

Bottom line, only Hardy and Alvarez were better in the second half than they were in the first. All of the other position players were worse, several markedly so.

[Mitch Connor]

I'm going to include Dan Duquette's grade for the season. Beginning of the season B Resigned Davis and lucked out with Trumbo trade. Kim and Alvarez were pleasant additions 2nd half grade D Did nothing as team faded after allstar break.

[Superbee83]

I'm going to include Dan Duquette's grade for the season. Beginning of the season B Resigned Davis and lucked out with Trumbo trade. Kim and Alvarez were pleasant additions 2nd half grade D Did nothing as team faded after allstar break.

DD made the following moves after the All Star break:

Acquired Wade Miley in a trade with Seattle.

Acquired Steve Pearce in a trade with Tampa.

Acquired Drew Stubbs off waivers from Texas

Acquired Michael Bourn in a trade with Texas

Signed Tommy Hunter after his release from the Indians.

None of these moves were blockbusters, but they were made to address needs on the club at the time. 9 Starter to replace Jimenez in the rotation, right handed bat, OF defense and speed, and bullpen depth)

Because of the costs involved, ( minor league players, non of whom appear to be on the cusp of the major leagues) I think that these were all reasonable moves at the time. I also think that it is unfair to say that he did nothing after the All Star Break. I would give him a "C" Grade for the second half of the season. I agree with your B grade for the off season. He gets a B- overall in my gradebook.

[backwardsk]

I'm going to include Dan Duquette's grade for the season. Beginning of the season B Resigned Davis and lucked out with Trumbo trade. Kim and Alvarez were pleasant additions 2nd half grade D Did nothing as team faded after allstar break.

With the benefit of hindsight, what moves do you think were out there that he could have made?

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[ChosenOne21]

Why is Pedro Alvarez being penalized for hitting too many solo shots? He can't make people get on base in front of him.

[LA2]

Why is Pedro Alvarez being penalized for hitting too many solo shots? He can't make people get on base in front of him.

The implication was that Alvarez hit significantly better when the bases were empty, which the stats bear out: OPS was .894 with no runners on (scary 18 bombs / 228 PAs) vs. .719 with at least one runner on (only 4 homers / 148 PAs).

[Can_of_corn]

I generally think the authors of such exercises are overly lenient in their grading.

In this case I think you were pretty much on the money.

[ChosenOne21]

The implication was that Alvarez hit significantly better when the bases were empty, which the stats bear out: OPS was .894 with no runners on (scary 18 bombs / 228 PAs) vs. .719 with at least one runner on (only 4 homers / 148 PAs).

I see where he's coming from, but if statistics have shown "clutch" hitting to be random variation, is there any reason to think differences between men on/bases empty aren't just random variation?

[LA2]

I see where he's coming from, but if statistics have shown "clutch" hitting to be random variation, is there any reason to think differences between men on/bases empty aren't just random variation?

All FRobby said was "I probably would have graded him slightly higher if so many of his homers hadn't been solo shots." It was merely a recognition of a drastic difference (he was 300% better at hitting homers with the bases empty!) based on enough plate appearances (376) to make a difference to the team in 2016. If you're going to resort to the sample size/random variation argument, almost nothing FRobby stated is valid and players like Flaherty, Reimold, and Rickard would not have even deserved any mention or grade at all. The assumption was comparisons across a single season, no matter how little activity the player saw, it seems.

[Triple Crown]

I'm going to include Dan Duquette's grade for the season. Beginning of the season B Resigned Davis and lucked out with Trumbo trade. Kim and Alvarez were pleasant additions 2nd half grade D Did nothing as team faded after allstar break.

Explain why he "lucked out" with the Trumbo trade

[Morgan423]

I generally think the authors of such exercises are overly lenient in their grading.

In this case I think you were pretty much on the money.

Except maybe being a little overly harsh on second-half Flaherty, who was barely getting at-bats and was pretty much in a defensive sub role in almost every game he appeared in. He did that job well, so I might have graded him a little higher.

[25 Nuggets]

Explain why he "lucked out" with the Trumbo trade

Yeah that makes no sense - if anything he got unlucky because his intent was clearly to play Trumbo at 1B, or DH if Davis signed. "Forced" to RF after the Fowler talks broke down and he signed Alvarez.

EDIT - even then, I think Duquette made that bed he slept in... Gallardo was a bad sign, made worse by making Fowler balk after the re-negotiations with Gallardo due to injury concerns (which turned out to be right, yet again with the Orioles med staff). One thing leads to another.

[Frobby]

The Pitchers

Chris Tillman, 1st half: 10-2, 3.71 ERA: B+. A few weeks ago I would have given him an A, but he has struggled lately. Still, I have no complaints about his first half performance.

2nd half: 6-4, 3.84, B. Very consistent season for Chris. He was not quite as effective after his bout with tendinitis, but he competed and put up decent numbers despite missing a few starts.

Kevin Gausman, 1st half: 1-6, 3.97 ERA: C+. That might seem a bit harsh for a guy with a sub-4 ERA, but I had higher expectations for him and I'm not seeing improvement in his breaking stuff.

2nd half: 8-6, 3.31 ERA, A-. Saw the improvement I wanted in his breaking stuff, and he got deeper into games. Very pleased with his second half.

Ubaldo Jimenez, 1st half: 5-8, 6.95 ERA: F. 'Nuff said.

2nd half: 3-4, 3.48 ERA, B+. Wow, what a turnaround. Lord knows what he'll do next year.

Yovanni Gallardo, 1st half: 3-1, 5.77 ERA: D+. More like an F before he went on the DL, and a C+ since he came back. I'm giving him a bit of a break on his overall grade because I believe he was pitching hurt at the start of the year. I'm hoping for more in the second half.

2nd half: 3-7, 5.27 ERA, D. I was lenient due to his injury in the first half, but in the second half he didn't have that excuse.

Tyler Wilson, 1st half: 4-6, 5.22 ERA: D. He has been OK at times, but doesn't have good command consistently enough for a guy with just so-so stuff. His demotion was warranted.

2nd half: 0-0, 5.54 ERA, D. Only pitched relief, and was substandard doing it.

Mike Wright, 1st half: 3-4, 6.12 ERA: F. He deserved to be demoted before Wilson.

2nd half: 0-0, 3.60 ERA, C+. Probably could have said incomplete, because he barely pitched.

Zach Britton, 1st half: 2-1, 23/23 saves, 0.80 ERA: A+. Can't have asked for more.

2nd half: 0-0, 24/24 saves, 0.27 ERA, A+. And yet somehow, he did more. Maybe he should get an A++.

Brad Brach, 1st half: 5-1, 1.01 ERA: A+. Ditto.

2nd half: 5-3, 3.11 ERA, C+. Brach was very inconsistent in the second half, and seemed to lose some command and some bite on his slider.

Darren O'Day, 1st half: 2-1, 3.15 ERA: B. He was solid before his injury. Hopefully he's back soon.

2nd half: 1-0, 4.91 ERA, D+. He only made 12 appearances for 11 innings in the second half, but was pretty shaky.

Mychal Givens, 1st half: 5-1, 3.72 ERA: B-. Started off hot but has been vulnerable lately, especially vs. LHB, who did not trouble him last year.

2nd half: 3-1, 2.58 ERA, A-. Really came on strong as the season closed, and at times was our 2nd most effective reliever down the stretch.

Dylan Bundy, 1st half: 2-1, 3.28 ERA: B+. Has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. I'm really looking forward to see how he does in the second half. He's learning fast and his stuff is getting crisper as he goes.

2nd half: 8-5, 4.38, B+. He gets that grade because I never expected him to get into the rotation in 2016. He was brilliant for a while after getting his feet wet down the stretch, and clearly tired at the end, but he exceeded my expectations for 2016 by a lot. It will be much harder for him to exceed my expectations in 2017.

Vance Worley, 1st half: 2-0, 3.12 ERA: B+. He's been better than I expected.

2nd half: 0-2, 3.95 ERA, B-. That's more along the lines of what I expected from him. But overall, a solid season for Worley and his versatility helped the team a lot.

T.J. McFarland, 2-2, 5.63 ERA: D. Has had a few good outings but overall he's been very disappointing.

2nd half: He made one appearance, pitching 0.2 innings and allowing 3 ER. I won't embarrass him by calculating his ERA or giving him a grade. Let's just say T.J. may have pitched himself off the roster in 2016.

Overall, the starting pitching was materially better in the second half, even though not world-beating. The bullpen was good, but not as good as the first half.

[Can_of_corn]

I would have given Bundy an A. Yes the FIP wasn't great but talk about exceeding all reasonable expectations. 110 ERA+ over 109.2 IP. Dan and Buck rode him a lot harder than I thought was safe and he battled the whole way.

[Mitch Connor]

Explain why he "lucked out" with the Trumbo trade

Trumbo was a salary dump by Seattle and ended up leading MLB in HRs. I don't think anyone expected the output.