So, I guess Buck's honeymoon is over?

[flashjordnk]

I disagree with almost everything you say. I think the cumulative effect of all the issues you identify here on the W-L record are negligible. I think, in 9 years on the Hangout, I have observed that all managers are more patient with veteran players, and slower to either cut their playing time or change their role, than many posters are. I have zero problem with Buck sticking with his original lineup, for the most part, to this point in the season. (He did move Lee down in the order a few spots and moved Jones and Wieters up.) I'd prefer Koji over Gregg as the closer, but think that issue is highly overrated since they both pitch an inning (in Koji's case, sometimes 2) in just about every close game we are winning and it really doesn't matter whether a run is yielded in the 8th vs. the 9th, or vice-versa. I don't think Buck has any good options at 2B, and that's not his fault; he was fortunate last year that BRob returned just a few days before he started as the manager, and he'd be looking better now if BRob were playing.

Like I said, it's all about the starting pitching. The team is scoring just as many runs now as it did during Buck's tenure last year, maybe even a few more relative to the rest of the league. But the starting pitching hasn't been there -- the starters' ERA is about a run higher, and they are pitching substantially fewer innings compared to what they were doing last August/September. When the starting pitching is good, managers look good.

Bottom line is that I think that I really don't like about Buck so far this year:

1. Bullepn usage. It just seems odd. So many games early on we saw him kept using Gonzo when we didn't want him too. Gregg stayed closer despite Koji being better. One and done innings for guys. The continual usage of Accardo despite the fact that he gave up runs like pitched in 25 games and gave up earned runs in 14 of them! I mean at no point during the year did Accardo have more K's than BB's and that guy logged 32 innings this year. Despite the fact that Gonzo has shown he's nothing but a LOOGY, Buck continues to use him for full innings. OPS against vs RHB 1268 vs LHB 620. Just don't let him pitch to righties. Rapada should be off the roster, give Gonzo his role and get another bullpen arm up here. There are just so many times where it's not clear to me he's doing the right things.

2. Roster Management. Look I'm fine if you want to leave Lee/Vlad in their spots. Honestly it doesn't make that huge of a difference. But give them a couple days off every week. Vlad won't be upset he's not starting 7 days a week and if he is, point to his OPS. I don't want a caretaker running this team, I want a guy who is assessing future talent and not worrying about what the veterans are going to say about him. The Adams/Davis this was literally crazy. Pie is OPSing like sub .600 and yet Reimold over .800 cant' find his way to RF. It seems like some roster spots are where players go to die. Adams/Reimold/Fox all know this well. And all are guys who might have been able to contribute to this team. I think most of all I'm frustrated by a complete lack of creativity by Buck. Maybe this wouldn't have solved anything, and I'm advocating for shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic, but I'd rather have a guy that's trying to do something, rather than a guy that is doing the same thing over and over and hoping for results (see what I did there).

3. Motivation/Preparation. So one big thing that it felt like last year was that this team was always prepared and always motivated. They didn't get games get away from them, and when they were behind they fought in counts, they fought in innings, they tried hard to play the game the right way. Right now...this team doesn't feel like that. Maybe in that regard the honeymoon is over. But if Buck is this genius of preparation, why doesn't it seem like our guys are more prepared? If it's so crystal clear to us fans what's going wrong, why can't the guy who has the microscope of details help figure out what's wrong? What happened to the guy that called out Derek Jeter and the Yankees?

The lineup...the results...the changes in coaching...I can live with all that. But the stuff that at least feels tangible to fans seems really to be lacking. Maybe that's a little too much of my gut talking and not enough of my mind, but that's kind of how I feel about it all.

As for your starting pitching comment, link

Starting pitching in 2010 is about 25% of baseball. It’s easy to figure that percentage.

Step 1: Figure that run scoring and run prevention are each 50% of the game.

Step 2: Bill James figure that pitching is about 75% of run prevention with defense the other 25%. You can adjust this if you want, but it won’t change the overall number much. Anyway that seems about right.

Step 3: Starting pitchers averaged six innings per start in 2010. You have to go back almost 25 years, to 1988, to find a year when starting pitchers averaged even 6 1/3 innings per start.

Do the math ((.50*.75) *.66) and it means that starting pitching as a whole is about 25% of the game.

No doubt good starting pitching makes it easier, but there are other ways to win games.

[DrungoHazewood]

Reimold is better than a fringe player. He has good OBP and power. If Vlad wasn't here he'd probably be playing everyday.

You are talking about the same Nolan Reimold who had a .610 OPS last year, is a poor fielder, and was putting up a .237/.329/.410 line in AAA at the age of 27, right?

There is a little bit of wiggle room, that maybe some off-field stuff and motivation and whatnot might allow for a scenario where he's better than that. But you don't bench Vlad a month or two into the season so that a 27-year-old guy with a .730 OPS in AAA can play every day.

[El Gordo]

The joke of this thread is Frobby mentioned all the message board criticism cliche's about managers, plug in the name of team/manager, and the response has been a regurgitation of those same cliches. People need to get some new material.:rofl:

[primetime]

This is a minor thing but I have no idea why Buck did not start Pie vs. Mark Buerhle when were in Chicago on May 2nd. Albeit, it's a SSS but Pie is 4 for 8 lifetime off Buerhle with 2 HRs. However, Buck didn't start him.

I can only guess it was lefty-lefty thing? But I'm sure if we analyzed all the games played this year, we could probably find other matchups that Buck could've explotied and didn't.

Quite frankly, when you don't have a team loaded with talent, the best way to compete is to exploit every favorable matchup possible. This is something that Earl Weaver and Davey Johnson excelled at.

Sometimes, it might not feel right to bench Raffy Palmeiro for Jerome Walton in the ALDS, but if it gives you and advantage, you do it.

[DrungoHazewood]

As for your starting pitching comment, link

Starting pitching in 2010 is about 25% of baseball. It’s easy to figure that percentage.

Step 1: Figure that run scoring and run prevention are each 50% of the game.

Step 2: Bill James figure that pitching is about 75% of run prevention with defense the other 25%. You can adjust this if you want, but it won’t change the overall number much. Anyway that seems about right.

Step 3: Starting pitchers averaged six innings per start in 2010. You have to go back almost 25 years, to 1988, to find a year when starting pitchers averaged even 6 1/3 innings per start.

Do the math ((.50*.75) *.66) and it means that starting pitching as a whole is about 25% of the game.

No doubt good starting pitching makes it easier, but there are other ways to win games.

If you're pretty evenly matched in 75% of the game, but your starters are allowing 40% more runs than the good teams', you're going to lose a lot.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is a minor thing but I have no idea why Buck did not start Pie vs. Mark Buerhle when were in Chicago on May 2nd. Albeit, it's a SSS but Pie is 4 for 8 lifetime off Buerhle with 2 HRs. However, Buck didn't start him.

I can only guess it was lefty-lefty thing? But I'm sure if we analyzed all the games played this year, we could probably find other matchups that Buck could've explotied and didn't.

Quite frankly, when you don't have a team loaded with talent, the best way to compete is to exploit every favorable matchup possible. This is something that Earl Weaver and Davey Johnson excelled at.

Sometimes, it might not feel right to bench Raffy Palmeiro for Jerome Walton in the ALDS, but if it gives you and advantage, you do it.

Maybe because Buck sees no predictive value in extremely SSS bits. If you have a lefty-lefty matchup with a guy who hits .200 against lefties, but he's 4-for-8 off that guy for his career, your best guess at his batting average going forward against that pitcher is going to be a lot closer to .200 than .500.

[RandyM]

I love extreme this board is. Wasn't there statements that Buck had "changed" the culture and things were different now. People were pretty much claiming that the "Buck factor" would push this team to contending this year.

Buck is a solid manager, but he isn't going to effect this team that much.

[DrungoHazewood]

I love extreme this board is. Wasn't there statements that Buck had "changed" the culture and things were different now. People were pretty much claiming that the "Buck factor" would push this team to contending this year.

Buck is a solid manager, but he isn't going to effect this team that much.

Not to call anyone out, we all make predictions that don't work out, but I'm interested in wildcard's take on things. He's the one who said our baseline expectations for this season should be near the winning percentage under Buck last year, say a roughly 90 win team. Mainly because of Buck's impact on culture, pitching, etc.

[carolinaoriole]

I think that the Orioles have won at least 10 games this year because of Buck. This team is a lot better this year as opposed to last season pre Buck. Buck still has a winning record as an Oriole Manager. I do not see the doom and gloom as other seem to see. The Orioles are getting better every day even when they lose the young pitchers are learning how to win. They are not doing as well as I had hoped but they are not stinking up the joint either.

[flashjordnk]

If you're pretty evenly matched in 75% of the game, but your starters are allowing 40% more runs than the good teams', you're going to lose a lot.

Just pointing out that if we know our SP is bad...let's try and make it up for in other ways. We don't have to just sit around and wait for our SP to be dominant to win. We've lost way too many games where our SP has been good (just ask Guthrie) to say that our SP hasn't given us enough to be .500 right now.

I've seen non starting pitching factors like fielding errors, lack of getting on base or situational hitting, base running errors, terrible bullpen to put the fact that we're under .500 just on the starting pitching. We've lost 3 games due to these things for sure. That's our .500 record.

I don't think I'd say this team has 'lost a lot' this year. We're only 6 games under. Again my objections really aren't about our record. We're probably right around where we should be in terms of talent, or not far from it. I just don't like what's been done by our manager this year. I don't use his record as an indictment of that...I never once used the fact that we were under .500 to strengthen my arguments. Personally I'm not a fan of how he's run the team this year. I'm not saying I'd be complaining as much if we were 10 games over .500 and he ran the team the exact same way. But I do think this team could operate a lot smarter than it has.

[Fan4Life]

I think Buck is a worse manager this year than he was last year...Not because we are losing but because it seemed to me that he did things differently than he is doing now.

This! 1000%.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Maybe because Buck sees no predictive value in extremely SSS bits. If you have a lefty-lefty matchup with a guy who hits .200 against lefties, but he's 4-for-8 off that guy for his career, your best guess at his batting average going forward against that pitcher is going to be a lot closer to .200 than .500.

Well, in Buehrle's case he splits out about the same against LHH's (worse this year) as RHH's, so there is probably more to it than that.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well, in Buehrle's case he splits out about the same against LHH's (worse this year) as RHH's, so there is probably more to it than that.

Not that 4-for-8 is any evidence either way.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Not that 4-for-8 is any evidence either way.

No, of course not. But if it's a guy he sees well and squares up on. on those AB's (even if they were all outs), it could be.

[Frobby]

Bottom line is that I think that I really don't like about Buck so far this year:

1. Bullepn usage. It just seems odd. So many games early on we saw him kept using Gonzo when we didn't want him too. Gregg stayed closer despite Koji being better. One and done innings for guys. The continual usage of Accardo despite the fact that he gave up runs like pitched in 25 games and gave up earned runs in 14 of them! I mean at no point during the year did Accardo have more K's than BB's and that guy logged 32 innings this year. Despite the fact that Gonzo has shown he's nothing but a LOOGY, Buck continues to use him for full innings. OPS against vs RHB 1268 vs LHB 620. Just don't let him pitch to righties. Rapada should be off the roster, give Gonzo his role and get another bullpen arm up here. There are just so many times where it's not clear to me he's doing the right things.

2. Roster Management. Look I'm fine if you want to leave Lee/Vlad in their spots. Honestly it doesn't make that huge of a difference. But give them a couple days off every week. Vlad won't be upset he's not starting 7 days a week and if he is, point to his OPS. I don't want a caretaker running this team, I want a guy who is assessing future talent and not worrying about what the veterans are going to say about him. The Adams/Davis this was literally crazy. Pie is OPSing like sub .600 and yet Reimold over .800 cant' find his way to RF. It seems like some roster spots are where players go to die. Adams/Reimold/Fox all know this well. And all are guys who might have been able to contribute to this team. I think most of all I'm frustrated by a complete lack of creativity by Buck. Maybe this wouldn't have solved anything, and I'm advocating for shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic, but I'd rather have a guy that's trying to do something, rather than a guy that is doing the same thing over and over and hoping for results (see what I did there).

3. Motivation/Preparation. So one big thing that it felt like last year was that this team was always prepared and always motivated. They didn't get games get away from them, and when they were behind they fought in counts, they fought in innings, they tried hard to play the game the right way. Right now...this team doesn't feel like that. Maybe in that regard the honeymoon is over. But if Buck is this genius of preparation, why doesn't it seem like our guys are more prepared? If it's so crystal clear to us fans what's going wrong, why can't the guy who has the microscope of details help figure out what's wrong? What happened to the guy that called out Derek Jeter and the Yankees?

The lineup...the results...the changes in coaching...I can live with all that. But the stuff that at least feels tangible to fans seems really to be lacking. Maybe that's a little too much of my gut talking and not enough of my mind, but that's kind of how I feel about it all.

As for your starting pitching comment, link

No doubt good starting pitching makes it easier, but there are other ways to win games.

The one-run differential in the team's ERA is enormous. In pythagorean terms, that's about an 8-win swing over 75 games. Instead of 35-41 (which is actually 2 wins better than our pythagorean record), we'd be 41-35 and on a pace for an 88-win season.

I disagree completely about Michael Gonzalez. Buck is doing exactly what he should do, trying to nurse him back to being his former self, or something similar. He's pitched to a 2.00 ERA in June, and while he is not completely out of the woods, I feel Buck is getting him pointed in the right direction.

I generally have liked Buck's bullpen usage. I don't understand where you are coming from on "one and done." He has used Koji multiple innings 5 times, Gonzalez 6 times, JJ 15 times, Accardo 11 times, Berken 9 times, Rapada 3 times. Who exactly would you like to see pitching multiple innings more often? It is not Buck's fault that he only has three reliable guys out there (I am including Gregg on that list since his 3.26 ERA is quite respectable). Speaking of that, if you make Koji the closer, all you are doing is adding to the number of innings Gregg is likely to pitch, and subtracting from Koji -- is that really what you want?

The idea that we have a lot of guys in the minors who can come up and do better than the Accardos of the world is a fantasy.

As I said in my OP, when the starting pitchers pitch better and go deeper into games, the team will win more and the bullpen won't be so exposed. It's tough to cover 3-2/3 innings with your bullpen every day, which is what the Orioles have had to do so far this year.