Should we Blow It Up again?

[mweb]

These trade threads are silly. Look, if you can tilt the deal squarely in your favor, as in the Bedard or Hardy trades, you pull the trigger. If you can trade from strength into weakness, a-la the Reynolds trade, you do it.

What you DON'T do is blow it up like Syd Thrift and have a fire-sale just to appease fans who are upset at the current performance of the team.

Your opinion of why I and some others are leaning in this direction is silly.

It's about what's the best way to build this organization into one with a chance at contending.

[Sports Guy]

These trade threads are silly. Look, if you can tilt the deal squarely in your favor, as in the Bedard or Hardy trades, you pull the trigger. If you can trade from strength into weakness, a-la the Reynolds trade, you do it.

What you DON'T do is blow it up like Syd Thrift and have a fire-sale just to appease fans who are upset at the current performance of the team.

There are some players, like Vlad for example, where you just dump them to save some money and hope to get back a Brett JAcobson like prospect....But if you think people are advocating dumping players for nothing, then you are obviously not paying attention to what people are saying.

[wildcard]

No, he is an interim piece, until Machado is ready. He's a very good player but if he won't be on our next team that has a prayer of contending, who cares?

So you have given up on 2012?

[Phantom]

Reloading, while easier for our fans to swallow, carries the very real risk of sustained mediocrity until our trade chips lose a lot of value. I would like to see a reload, but it had better be an all out blitz (read: hundreds of millions of dollars committed).

Otherwise, start shopping everyone.

[LA2]

You can blow it up but there is little point in doing so if you don't blow up everything else as well: scouting, drafting, front office, player development, trainers, ownership, etc. etc.

Otherwise, it is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Yeah, I'm feelin' really optimistic.

Thanks for the bigger perspective on the "blow up." Despite all the complaints about our acquisitions this year, relatively speaking MacPhail did a pretty good job obtaining Reynolds and Hardy and the jury's still out on Lee. Considering Uehara's frailness and the uncertainty about Berken, Gonzalez, and Johnson, even Gregg turned out not to be a bad move. It's not as flashy and headlines-making, but what the O's really need to do is improve their scouting and player development. The farm system is just not providing enough good players and those who do make it to the majors and show some potential keep running into problems. Both the O's teams of the glorious past and a good number of current teams around both leagues have proven it is very achievable; why haven't we done it so far?

[Slappy]

Your opinion of why I and some others are leaning in this direction is silly.

It's about what's the best way to build this organization into one with a chance at contending.

So, what is my opinion on why you and some others are leaning in this direction?

My point is that trade threads are silly without names on both sides. And even then those are silly because we always overvalue our players and undervalue the ones coming back. There are exceptions to the latter. If I recall, a few posters nailed what it would take to get Reynolds and most of us over estimated what it would take to get Hardy.

But just saying "we should trade X, Y, and Z"... yeah, that's silly.

[wildcard]

This thread is way out there IMO.

The main problem with this team is that the starting pitching is not pitching up to expectations. Do you really think Matusz is done or will not be back to his late 2010 form by the start of 2012? Britton should get even stronger with experience. Arrieta is winning now and should get better with experience. These are growing pains that these guys are going through. That is the O's top three starters. And they all should be good ones.

It is a good question if Tillman, Bergesen, Atkins can be 4's or 5's. That is what the second half it for. They should get their chances so the O's know what to do in the off season. Depending on what those three show, the O's do something with Guthrie in the off season. Trade him or extend him.

I am for trading Guthrie at the deadline if MacPhail gets blown away with at deal. But if he doesn't its an off season issue IMO.

Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Hardy, Wieters, Reynolds at 1B or DH are the core position players. I don't trade them unless someone blows the O's away with a deal.

I would like to see Fox get a shot at being the everyday DH in the 2nd half. That needs to be explored.

The biggest need for me is an everyday 3B. I would be looking for fits for the position.

There will be money available in the off season. Vlad, maybe Lee, Scott, Gonzo may all be gone. That is about 27M. MacPhail traded relievers for Hardy and Reynolds. That is the kind of deals the O's should be looking for. Plus there is always Fielder. He is not the only avenue but he is worth looking into.

The guy I could see trading at the deadline is Koji. I would want an everyday player or starter for 2012 for him. That could be someone in the minors.

I realize this approach takes patience that does not exist with some on the Hangout. You really have be believe in the younger players the O's have and want to supplement them. Add pieces. I like that direction best.

[mweb]

This thread is way out there IMO.

The main problem with this team is that the starting pitching is not pitching up to expectations. Do you really think Matusz is done or will not be back to his late 2010 form by the start of 2012? Britton should get even stronger with experience. Arrieta is winning now and should get better with experience. These are growing pains that these guys are going through. That is the O's top three starters. And they all should be good ones.

It is a good question if Tillman, Bergesen, Atkins can be 4's or 5's. That is what the second half it for. They should get their chances so the O's know what to do in the off season. Depending on what those three show, the O's do something with Guthrie in the off season. Trade him or extend him.

I am for trading Guthrie at the deadline if MacPhail gets blown away with at deal. But if he doesn't its an off season issue IMO.

Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Hardy, Wieters, Reynolds at 1B or DH are the core position players. I don't trade them unless someone blows the O's away with a deal.

I would like to see Fox get a shot at being the everyday DH in the 2nd half. That needs to be explored.

The biggest need for me is an everyday 3B. I would be looking for fits for the position.

There will be money available in the off season. Vlad, maybe Lee, Scott, Gonzo may all be gone. That is about 27M. MacPhail traded relievers for Hardy and Reynolds. That is the kind of deals the O's should be looking for. Plus there is always Fielder. He is not the only avenue but he is worth looking into.

The guy I could see trading at the deadline is Koji. I would want an everyday player or starter for 2012 for him. That could be someone in the minors.

I realize this approach takes patience that does not exist with some on the Hangout. You really have be believe in the younger players the O's have and want to supplement them. Add pieces. I like that direction best.

I would think it is out there to someone who is one of the most optimistic people on the board.

Yeah, I totally realize and admit that the current core can potentially compete with some smart additions. However, I have lost most of my faith in that regard.

As far as the patience line, well blowing it up obviously requires patience since it pushes back the timeline for potential winning baseball so lets not act like anyone of my opinion lacks that trait. Yes, patience is also required to see the rebuild through, but you have to admit that the current rebuild is well behind schedule and not looking nearly as promising as it once did.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think we need to re-tool instead of blow it up.

Hardy and Guthrie should be dealt at the deadline. I'd explore a deal for JJ as well.

We can can dump Lee, and maybe Vlad, Scott and Gonzalez in August. If somebody wants Nick's contract as well, I'd let them have it.

If Scott is still on the team at the end of the season, non-tender him and also non-tender Pie.

The goal should be to clear as much payroll going into the offseason of mediocre guys and expensive roster fillers where we can make trades for and sign premium talent.

We'd keep Wieters and Jones to build around and Arrieta, Britton and hopefully Matusz and really make an effort to win in 2012.

Agreed on most points. I'm a lot more open to resigning Hardy and keeping Nick than you are, but we agree on the general direction the team should take. They have no Tejada/Bedard assets at this point. Get what you can for Guthrie and maybe Scott. See if there are any takers for any of the old guys. Then move forward with more amateur investment and carefully considered acquisitions for 2012.

[DrungoHazewood]

What good does putting Guerrero on the trading block? No one will give up anything of value for him.

If they'd give up a real, live minor league baseball player for two months of Aubrey Huff producing at a -0.6 WAR level, they might just give up something for Vlad.

[mweb]

Agreed on most points. I'm a lot more open to resigning Hardy and keeping Nick than you are, but we agree on the general direction the team should take. They have no Tejada/Bedard assets at this point. Get what you can for Guthrie and maybe Scott. See if there are any takers for any of the old guys. Then move forward with more amateur investment and carefully considered acquisitions for 2012.

I think going with that approach is very defensible. However, when you say we don't have assets like Tejada and Bedard, while true, Jones could bring back a nice haul, and they could get a lot from the collection of Guthrie, Hardy, Koji, JJ, Gregg, and possibly Reynolds, Scott, and Nick.

I will say that a big glitch in this plan is that it suggests spending a lot of the saved money on amateur talent, which just isn't likely with PA.

[El Gordo]

I am not for blowing it up but the Matusz situatioin coupled with Jakes elbow troubles have me very concerned about the pitching. Id trade Guthrie, Hardy(if he won't extend) and Jones, along with Soctt, Vlad, and Lee, focusing on more young SP.

[wildcard]

I would think it is out there to someone who is one of the most optimistic people on the board.

Yeah, I totally realize and admit that the current core can potentially compete with some smart additions. However, I have lost most of my faith in that regard.

As far as the patience line, well blowing it up obviously requires patience since it pushes back the timeline for potential winning baseball so lets not act like anyone of my opinion lacks that trait. Yes, patience is also required to see the rebuild through, but you have to admit that the current rebuild is well behind schedule and not looking nearly as promising as it once did.

I am not sure that the O's are that far behind on the rebuilding. When MacPhail traded Tejada and Bedard I know we had a big discussion on whether it would take 4 or 5 years to be a contender. 2011 is 4 years. 2012 is 5 years.

I think the pitching staff has the talent to contend it just needs experience and health. On the health side there needs to be more depth.

The O's have a pretty good outfield and catcher. Hardy and Reynolds are keepers though Reynolds may have to move positions. Roberts really caused problems by hitting himself in the head. How do you predict that kind of behavior from one of the leaders of the team and a very solid guy?

So the O's need an everyday third baseman and some depth. Not everyone is going to have a good year. So the depth is a important element.

I think the O's are closer to contention that many think because when you start talking about the players their is a lot of talent of this team. The failure of the supplementary players like Vlad and Lee have hurt. Markakis 1st two months were ...what? Out of character. Roberts...Ugh.

If the talent is there blowing it up doesn't help, because health issues will always be there. I think its really a depth issue and the willingness to be patience with the current talented group.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think going with that approach is very defensible. However, when you say we don't have assets like Tejada and Bedard, while true, Jones could bring back a nice haul, and they could get a lot from the collection of Guthrie, Hardy, Koji, JJ, Gregg, and possibly Reynolds, Scott, and Nick.

I will say that a big glitch in this plan is that it suggests spending a lot of the saved money on amateur talent, which just isn't likely with PA.

I'm not ruling out trading anyone, but I think you have to keep a core to build around. I'm not up for a wholesale demolition. I have no interest in 3-4 more 60-win seasons, and I don't really care if that's theoretically more likely to build for 2015 and beyond.

And while I admit more investment in neglected areas is unlikely, that's the only way forward that'll work.

[wildcard]

I'm not ruling out trading anyone, but I think you have to keep a core to build around. I'm not up for a wholesale demolition. I have no interest in 3-4 more 60-win seasons, and I don't really care if that's theoretically more likely to build for 2015 and beyond.

And while I admit more investment in neglected areas is unlikely, that's the only way forward that'll work.

I agree.