Mark Freaking Reynolds!

[RVAbird]

Reynolds has made more outs and how productive were those 183 K's in comparisons to the outs Vlad made. Vlad has GIDP 10 more times than Reynolds, but tonight is a perfect example of why Vlad bats 4. With runners in scoring position the odds were much better that Vlad would get a hit and Reynolds would get a K.

So...now making outs isn't the essential criterion?

[ChrisAF79]

So...now making outs isn't the essential criterion?

I'm getting dizzy from all the spin.

Reynolds would be a MUCH better #4 hitter than Vlad. I'm not sure how this can really even be debatable.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Reynolds has made more outs and how productive were those 183 K's in comparisons to the outs Vlad made. Vlad has GIDP 10 more times than Reynolds, but tonight is a perfect example of why Vlad bats 4. With runners in scoring position the odds were much better that Vlad would get a hit and Reynolds would get a K.

Saying Reynolds has made more outs is meaningless, because he's had many more plate appearances. That's like saying Brandon Morrow is better than Jon Lester because he has more strikeouts when Lester has pitched more innings to a lower ERA.

[El Gordo]

So...now making outs isn't the essential criterion?

The question is about productive outs. If you can demonstrate that Reynolds has significantly more productive outs than Vlad, I'll concede your point. I suspect if Reynolds batted 4, he would have more walks, fewer HR, more K's. and fewer RBI's.

[BaltimoreTerp]

So...now making outs isn't the essential criterion?

No, because that doesn't help his argument anymore.

[BaltimoreTerp]

The question is prosuctive outs. If you can demonstrate that Reynolds has significantlky more productive outs the Vlad I'll concede your point. I suspect if Reynolds batted 4, he would have more walks, fewer HR, more K's. and fewer RBI's.

Can you demonstrate the number of "productive" outs either player has had?

EDIT: And can you give some evidence for your "suspicions"?

[RVAbird]

The question is about productive outs. If you can demonstrate that Reynolds has significantly more productive outs than Vlad, I'll concede your point. I suspect if Reynolds batted 4, he would have more walks, fewer HR, more K's. and fewer RBI's.

The question was not about productive outs when you said the following:

Because he strikes out 200 times a year and has a .220 BA. He makes too many outs to bat 4th. He is much better hitting 5th or 6t. Wieters would be a better choice.,

I won't try to argue with you about productive outs or try to convince you that Reynolds is a more productive hitter than Vlad regardless of where he hits in the batting order. But it's okay to admit you were wrong in saying "he makes too many outs to bat 4th." It's okay to admit you took the wrong line of reasoning initially. No need to backpedal.

[El Gordo]

Can you demonstrate the number of "productive" outs either player has had?

EDIT: And can you give some evidence for your "suspicions"?

I suspect some one who puts the ball in play much more frequently than someone else, and only has 10 more GIDP, has many more productive outs than that someone who K's 200 times per year.

[El Gordo]

The question was not about productive outs when you said the following:

I won't try to argue with you about productive outs or try to convince you that Reynolds is a more productive hitter than Vlad regardless of where he hits in the batting order. But it's okay to admit you were wrong in saying "he makes too many outs to bat 4th." It's okay to admit you took the wrong line of reasoning initially. No need to backpedal.

I should have said he makes too many unproductive out.(In general K's are unproductive). I'll agree to that. But I don't think Reynolds would be as productive batting 4, because he would be pitched to differently. In a game situation I would rather face some one who is much more likely to K than some one who is much more likely to get a hit or at least put the ball in play.

[allstar1579]

I should have said he makes too many unproductive out.(In general K's are unproductive). I'll agree to that. But I don't think Reynolds would be as productive batting 4, because he would be pitched to differently. In a game situation I would rather face some one who is much more likely to K than some one who is much more likely to get a hit or at least put the ball in play.

Is any out productive?

I mean, a Sac Fly is an out scoring a run, but it's not counted as an AB and therefore on a stats basis isn't counted as an out. A Sac, advancing runners, same thing. Maybe if you get into FC with an RBI, but seriously how many times does that happen? Walking with the basis loaded would kind of negate that last one, if it happens.

I could see if you said the argument for Reynolds is because he hits a HR every 14 AB or about 3x more often than Vlad does, so he'd have more RBI hitting in a better spot in the lineup, but even that doesn't hold a lot of water.

Vlad is hitting 4th because he gets a hit 30% of the time and Mark gets one 20% of the time. That's a big difference in baseball.

[El Gordo]

Is any out productive?

I mean, a Sac Fly is an out scoring a run, but it's not counted as an AB and therefore on a stats basis isn't counted as an out. A Sac, advancing runners, same thing. Maybe if you get into FC with an RBI, but seriously how many times does that happen? Walking with the basis loaded would kind of negate that last one, if it happens.

I could see if you said the argument for Reynolds is because he hits a HR every 14 AB or about 3x more often than Vlad does, so he'd have more RBI hitting in a better spot in the lineup, but even that doesn't hold a lot of water.

Vlad is hitting 4th because he gets a hit 30% of the time and Mark gets one 20% of the time. That's a big difference in baseball.

I agree with this. But in addition, there is a 1 in 3 chance that Reynolds will strike out. There is a 1 in 3 chance that Vlad will get a hit. A ball put in play can advance the runner or result in an error. With RISP that could result in a R. In the same situation a K is a rally killer. To put it simply Reynolds is an easier out than Vlad.

[e16bball]

I won't try to argue with you about productive outs or try to convince you that Reynolds is a more productive hitter than Vlad regardless of where he hits in the batting order. But it's okay to admit you were wrong in saying "he makes too many outs to bat 4th." It's okay to admit you took the wrong line of reasoning initially. No need to backpedal.

More to the point --- and I'm sure you agree with this, so I'm not attempting to correct your stance in any way, but at this point the argument has gotten sidetracked --- since when is "productive outs" the relevant criterion for determining who should be your cleanup hitter? Guys like Markakis and Brandon Phillips make more "productive outs" than guys like Jay Bruce and Ryan Howard. Would anyone suggest that the former pair is more qualified to be a team's cleanup hitter than the latter two?

Completely ignoring the productiveness of hits (i.e., the magnitude of impact the player makes when he succeeds) in favor of considering only the productiveness of outs is asinine. A productive out can only exist in certain limited situations, and at best can advance a runner one base. An extra base hit, for example, is always valuable and of course can advance baserunners multiple bases at a time. Which is not to mention that the skillset required to make productive outs (putting the ball in play frequently) also leads to MULTIPLE outs via the double play, unquestionably the most devastating and rally-killing event in baseball.

Obviously, in an ideal world, you'd prefer to have Reynolds hitting 5th or 6th. The total package he offers as a hitter is not sufficient to make him a bona fide cleanup hitter. But this isn't an ideal world, this is the 2011 Orioles lineup, and to argue that a guy with an ISO that places him firmly between Alex Gonzalez and Cameron Maybin is a better option as a cleanup hitter simply because Reynolds isn't a great option simply doesn't hold water.

[El Gordo]

More to the point --- and I'm sure you agree with this, so I'm not attempting to correct your stance in any way, but at this point the argument has gotten sidetracked --- since when is "productive outs" the relevant criterion for determining who should be your cleanup hitter? Guys like Markakis and Brandon Phillips make more "productive outs" than guys like Jay Bruce and Ryan Howard. Would anyone suggest that the former pair is more qualified to be a team's cleanup hitter than the latter two?

Completely ignoring the productiveness of hits (i.e., the magnitude of impact the player makes when he succeeds) in favor of considering only the productiveness of outs is asinine. A productive out can only exist in certain limited situations, and at best can advance a runner one base. An extra base hit, for example, is always valuable and of course can advance baserunners multiple bases at a time. Which is not to mention that the skillset required to make productive outs (putting the ball in play frequently) also leads to MULTIPLE outs via the double play, unquestionably the most devastating and rally-killing event in baseball.

Obviously, in an ideal world, you'd prefer to have Reynolds hitting 5th or 6th. The total package he offers as a hitter is not sufficient to make him a bona fide cleanup hitter. But this isn't an ideal world, this is the 2011 Orioles lineup, and to argue that a guy with an ISO that places him firmly between Alex Gonzalez and Cameron Maybin is a better option as a cleanup hitter simply because Reynolds isn't a great option simply doesn't hold water.

The idea is that the #4 hitter is more likely to bat with RISP. So in a situation like tonight, with one out, a tie game, and 2 RISP, would you rather have Reynolds batting with a 1 in 3 chance of striking out, or Vlad with a 1 in 3 chance of getting a hit. If Vlad gets the hit it's 2 R. If Reynolds hits a HR it's 3, but Reynolds hits a HR 1 in 16 times. If Vlad puts the ball in play theres a good chance we score a R and he puts the ball in play 170 times more often than Reynolds with 36 fewer PA.

[SrMeowMeow]

The idea is that the #4 hitter is more likely to bat with RISP. So in a situation like tonight, with one out, a tie game, and 2 RISP, would you rather have Reynolds batting with a 1 in 3 chance of striking out, or Vlad with a 1 in 3 chance of getting a hit. If Vlad gets the hit it's 2 R. If Reynolds hits a HR it's 3, but Reynolds hits a HR 1 in 16 times. If Vlad puts the ball in play theres a good chance we score a R and he puts the ball in play 170 times more often than Reynolds with 36 fewer PA.

How about instead of this bizarre patchwork analysis we just look at OPS and agree that Reynolds' 797 is better than Vlad's 743 and that therefore Reynolds is the better hitter?

[El Gordo]

Because it is too simple minded.