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Mark Freaking Reynolds!

xKHx

By xKHx
in Orioles Talk

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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EVERYBODY ON THIS BOARD knows that Reynolds is a below average defender. You aren't telling anyone anything they don't know. Go ahead, start a poll and see how many people think Reynolds is average or better, or is likely to be in the future.

Saying he is below average is different that saying you expect him to be about -37 UZR in a typical season (which is the pace he's on right now). He has never done that. He may do it this year, or he may improve in the second half. In any event this is highly likely to end up as the worst defensive season he has had thus far in his career, and it is reasonable to believe that he can do much better than that, even if he is still below average.

I do agree with this.

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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OK, I think we're pretty much saying the same thing here - Being a -10 defender isn't great, but it's not something that gets you moved to DH. I just think that saying that that level of defense is "awful" or "horrid" is grossly exaggerating.

But I also think that with Reynolds, context is important. He wasn't a prospect that was being groomed as the third baseman of the future in Arizona, he was an organizational-filler type player that developed unexpectedly and was thrust into full-time duty in the majors due to the team having a bunch of injuries to their 3B and all of the guys ahead of him on the depth chart. 2007 was the first year the Diamondbacks thought enough of him to even give him a position to play, and he made his major league debut that year. This guy wasn't a polished player at all when he got called up, and I think it's reasonable to give him some slack when he was playing third for the first time professionally at the major league level. Not excusing his play this year, but having watched him a lot I think he's below average at worst, unless he really has just fallen off a cliff this year.

Maybe it's semantics, but I feel comfortable calling a regular -11 defender awful. If you are bad enough to regularly be the worst defensive starter at your position I'm of the opinion that you're not below average, you're awful.

I haven't been involved in this thread, and I see others are exaggerating his lack of defense. Even if he regularly loses his team 10 runs with the glove, I'm fine with him as a starting third baseman. Production is production. I know production that includes poor defense and massive moon shots elicits more reactionary responses, but the bottom line is what matters to me, regardless of how you get there. I simply don't want it to be overlooked that he is one of the worst defensive starting third basemen in MLB.

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ccbird Hangout Grand Counsel

ccbird

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.

The Yankees had Bucky "****ing" Dent, and now we have Mark "****ing" Reynolds.

You got that right. With the context of the "****ing" being one extreme or the other. BTW.. his hands are pretty solid so I don't think he has to be a DH and probably would be a good 1B. We're still a long way from next APril 2012 but my guess is that his where he is for us next year.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Maybe it's semantics, but I feel comfortable calling a regular -11 defender awful. If you are bad enough to regularly be the worst defensive starter at your position I'm of the opinion that you're not below average, you're awful.

I haven't been involved in this thread, and I see others are exaggerating his lack of defense. Even if he regularly loses his team 10 runs with the glove, I'm fine with him as a starting third baseman. Production is production. I know production that includes poor defense and massive moon shots elicits more reactionary responses, but the bottom line is what matters to me, regardless of how you get there. I simply don't want it to be overlooked that he is one of the worst defensive starting third basemen in MLB.

Reynolds is not a regular -11 UZR/150 3. He was -8 in '06, -11.3 in '08, -7.4 in '09 and 2.5 in '10. That is not a regular -11 by my math. He has never been the worst fielding 3B according to fangraphs. His Rtot average is -8 RS. less than - one W. This year is by far an outlier.
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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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Reynolds is not a regular -11 UZR/150 3. He was -8 in '06, -11.3 in '08, -7.4 in '09 and 2.5 in '10. That is not a regular -11 by my math. He has never been the worst fielding 3B according to fangraphs. His Rtot average is -8 RS. less than - one W. This year is by far an outlier.

Of course this year is an outlier! Where have I argued differently?

Defense, and the metrics that measure it, is volatile. His UZR numbers have bounced up and down around a mean. -8 by Rtot, -9.5 by UZR/150. I'm done playing semantics, so call that kind of defense what you want.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Of course this year is an outlier! Where have I argued differently?

Defense, and the metrics that measure it, is volatile. His UZR numbers have bounced up and down around a mean. -8 by Rtot, -9.5 by UZR/150. I'm done playing semantics, so call that kind of defense what you want.

You said he is a regular -11 UZR player. How is it semantics to point out that that is not true?
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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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You said he is a regular -11 UZR player. How is it semantics to point out that that is not true?

If you trace the conversation back, you'll see that I was responding to the concept of a -11 UZR player being only below average. Mark Reynolds is probably a little better than that.

My larger point was global.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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If you trace the conversation back, you'll see that I was responding to the concept of a -11 UZR player being only below average. Mark Reynolds is probably a little better than that.

My larger point was global.

My point is you seem to think he regularly puts up a -11 UZR and regularly is the worst defender at his poistion. Neither are true. His UZR on actual innings played to date is an average of -7.3 per season. A big difference from -11 IMO.
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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My point is you seem to think he regularly puts up a -11 UZR and regularly is the worst defender at his poistion. Neither are true. His UZR on actual innings played to date is an average of -7.3 per season. A big difference from -11 IMO.

You are putting words in his mouth and picking a fight where it is totally unnecessary. The point, which is not really debatable, is that over his 5 year career Reynolds has generally been significantly below average at 3B. -7 for a season is not a big deal, but when that is your average over 4+ years, it's a clear downward departure from average. So, if you believe in the validity of the metric, then you have to believe Reynolds is significantly below average.

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RVAbird All-Star

RVAbird

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My point is you seem to think he regularly puts up a -11 UZR and regularly is the worst defender at his poistion. Neither are true. His UZR on actual innings played to date is an average of -7.3 per season. A big difference from -11 IMO.

No, that's not at all what I was saying, but nice try.

I said that a regular -11 defender is awful and regularly the worst or second worst at his position. I have no dog in this Reynolds fight. I've been well aware of his warts for some time and I was one of the first advocates for his acquisition.

My only investment in this entire thread is to point out that -11 defense is not merely below average.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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My point is you seem to think he regularly puts up a -11 UZR and regularly is the worst defender at his poistion. Neither are true. His UZR on actual innings played to date is an average of -7.3 per season. A big difference from -11 IMO.

Four runs of UZR is not a big difference. Four runs of UZR is probably not even enough to declare one player better than another with any confidence. If one player is -11 per 150 games and another is -7.3 all that tells you is that the -11 guy is fairly likely to be the worse defender.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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There is no doubt that Reynolds has been below average according to UZR. But, prior to this year, he had been showing improvement in that category. I figured we would get slightly below average to average defense this year...We haven't yet although I still feel he isn't as bad over at third as his UZR and errors numbers suggest. Not saying that he hasn't "earned" those numbers, just that he is capable of being better than that.

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