Mark Freaking Reynolds!

[Austin]

Yes.

Lettuce.

Well that's pretty silly. I don't care how old you are, 14 years isn't a drop in the bucket, even if it feels like it. If you live to be 80 years old 14 years is still one sixth of your entire life.. and it's certainly far too long to go without a winning baseball team.

[OFFNY]

.

The Yankees had Bucky "****ing" Dent, and now we have Mark "****ing" Reynolds.

[LookitsPuck]

To keep in back of head when viewing Mark Reynold's value.

WAR positional adjustments (from Tango):

+1.0 wins C

+0.5 SS/CF

+0.0 2B/3B

-0.5 LF/RF/PH

-1.0 1B

-1.5 DH

I think a lot of us say, "Move him to 1B or DH, and we'll get better value out of Reynolds there." In other words, the O's could maximize Reynolds oWAR component by taking away his negative defensive value. But it's not as simple as that.

Depending upon your view of Reynold's true defensive ability, the WAR positional adjustment shows us that the O's may not gain anything in terms of value by moving him down the defensive spectrum.

While Reynolds has been atrocious this year defensively, his career average is ~-1.0 wins per year with the glove. Which is basically the same effect as moving him to 1B, and actually a detriment when viewed as a DH.

If we go by Fangraphs, his defensive value:

2007: -3.9

2008: -11.0

2009: -11.4

2010: 1.7

2011: -18.5

If he keeps this pace up, he'll have a total WAR that was WORSE than his last 2 years (2009 it was 3.5, 2010 it was 2.3).

Basically, historically speaking his defense has been horrid. 2010 was good. Every other year was absolutely poor. I don't know why everyone is giving him the benefit of the doubt when historically he's been poor.

[Frobby]

If we go by Fangraphs, his defensive value:

2007: -3.9

2008: -11.0

2009: -11.4

2010: 1.7

2011: -18.5

If he keeps this pace up, he'll have a total WAR that was WORSE than his last 2 years (2009 it was 3.5, 2010 it was 2.3).

Basically, historically speaking his defense has been horrid. 2010 was good. Every other year was absolutely poor. I don't know why everyone is giving him the benefit of the doubt when historically he's been poor.

It is just a matter of how poor. There is no precedent for him to be as bad as he has been this year.

[GoGoPower]

If we go by Fangraphs, his defensive value:

2007: -3.9

2008: -11.0

2009: -11.4

2010: 1.7

2011: -18.5

If he keeps this pace up, he'll have a total WAR that was WORSE than his last 2 years (2009 it was 3.5, 2010 it was 2.3).

Basically, historically speaking his defense has been horrid. 2010 was good. Every other year was absolutely poor. I don't know why everyone is giving him the benefit of the doubt when historically he's been poor.

A -11 UZR is only below average, not horrid. Horrid is Ryan Braun (or Mark Reynolds this year). He may not have ever been a great third baseman, but he's been serviceable prior to this season.

[Frobby]

A -11 UZR is only below average, not horrid. Horrid is Ryan Braun (or Mark Reynolds this year). He may not have ever been a great third baseman, but he's been serviceable prior to this season.

Just for context, Melvin Mora was at -7.0 in 2004 and -10.1 in 2006.

[RVAbird]

A -11 UZR is only below average, not horrid. Horrid is Ryan Braun (or Mark Reynolds this year). He may not have ever been a great third baseman, but he's been serviceable prior to this season.

Ryan Braun has a career UZR/150 of -6.4. That's below average.

-11 is pretty awful. If he were -11 at just about any other position he'd have necessitated a move by now. The fact that the 3B/1B positional gap is the largest differential in single-step positional value (about 12-14 runs over a full season) is the only reason he could survive as a -11 defender.

Anything worse than -10 UZR/150 over 900+ innings is a pretty safe bet for the worst or second worse defender at the position in a given season.

Last year there were no third baseman with 900+ innings who were 10 runs below average or worse.

[Nolanseye14]

LooksitsPuck..... We get it man you don't like Reynolds defense. Please stop beating it into the ground.

[GoGoPower]

Ryan Braun has a career UZR/150 of -6.4. That's below average.

-11 is pretty awful. If he were -11 at just about any other position he'd have necessitated a move by now. The fact that the 3B/1B positional gap is the largest differential in single-step positional value (about 12-14 runs over a full season) is the only reason he could survive as a -11 defender.

Braun's UZR/150 at third was -41.5. That's why he doesn't play there anymore. He's not horrible in the outfield, but since we're talking about third base that isn't very relevant.

Reynolds' -11.3 UZR/150 at third in 2008 was the absolute worst of his career before this season and he had been improving since then. His other years were -8, -7.4, and 2.5. Would anyone really be complaining about his defense if he were a -11 fielder at third? That's pretty close to David Wright, and he still plays third...

[LookitsPuck]

LooksitsPuck..... We get it man you don't like Reynolds defense. Please stop beating it into the ground.

Sigh.

People keep giving his defense the benefit of the doubt. I'm trying to tell people that historically you can not.

[Nolanseye14]

Sigh.

People keep giving his defense the benefit of the doubt. I'm trying to tell people that historically you can not.

There is nothing that can be done about it right now. We have no other options. At the end of the year is there is zero progression I'm sure it will be reevaluated.

[crowmst3k!]

Even if his defense at third is sucky, Mark Reynolds is a great guy to have in the fold.

DH is the likely long-term place for him, maybe first, but he's become a game changer for the Orioles offensively.

[RVAbird]

Braun's UZR/150 at third was -41.5. That's why he doesn't play there anymore. He's not horrible in the outfield, but since we're talking about third base that isn't very relevant.

Reynolds' -11.3 UZR/150 at third in 2008 was the absolute worst of his career before this season and he had been improving since then. His other years were -8, -7.4, and 2.5. Would anyone really be complaining about his defense if he were a -11 fielder at third? That's pretty close to David Wright, and he still plays third...

Well, I think we're getting at different things here.

First of all, Braun is not a third baseman. He never realistically was going to be one. And yes, his defense at third is beyond horrible. However, Looking at 900 or so innings of UZR/150 is highly unreliable.

David Wright is an interesting case. His UZR numbers were solid up until two years ago, and they've been very bad since. And again, even if he is "truly" a -10 defender, he's still probably more valuable there than he would be at first (unless he were solidly above average there).

Again, if Reynolds is truly a -10 defender, he's probably better off staying at third. You take the offense, sacrifice the defense, and end up with a solid average to slightly above average player. I was on board for that when the trade was made.

However, to say that -11 is just below average is simply not true. It's probably enough to keep the job, but it will regularly make you one of the worst two or three starters at your position, and often the worst. I think plenty of people would be complaining about -11 defense.

Remember, UZR gets more reliable with larger sample sizes, and it's best to take three year averages of the data at the very least before you can infer much from them. This year's -18 (-32.7 UZR/150) is probably an outlier. Then again, last year's +2.5 probably was as well.

[GoGoPower]

OK, I think we're pretty much saying the same thing here - Being a -10 defender isn't great, but it's not something that gets you moved to DH. I just think that saying that that level of defense is "awful" or "horrid" is grossly exaggerating.

But I also think that with Reynolds, context is important. He wasn't a prospect that was being groomed as the third baseman of the future in Arizona, he was an organizational-filler type player that developed unexpectedly and was thrust into full-time duty in the majors due to the team having a bunch of injuries to their 3B and all of the guys ahead of him on the depth chart. 2007 was the first year the Diamondbacks thought enough of him to even give him a position to play, and he made his major league debut that year. This guy wasn't a polished player at all when he got called up, and I think it's reasonable to give him some slack when he was playing third for the first time professionally at the major league level. Not excusing his play this year, but having watched him a lot I think he's below average at worst, unless he really has just fallen off a cliff this year.

[Frobby]

Sigh.

People keep giving his defense the benefit of the doubt. I'm trying to tell people that historically you can not.

EVERYBODY ON THIS BOARD knows that Reynolds is a below average defender. You aren't telling anyone anything they don't know. Go ahead, start a poll and see how many people think Reynolds is average or better, or is likely to be in the future.

Saying he is below average is different that saying you expect him to be about -37 UZR in a typical season (which is the pace he's on right now). He has never done that. He may do it this year, or he may improve in the second half. In any event this is highly likely to end up as the worst defensive season he has had thus far in his career, and it is reasonable to believe that he can do much better than that, even if he is still below average.