Thoughts on package O's got for Koji?

[weams]

Tommy Davis is our best starter when healthy #1 Draft choice who lived up to hype. . Chris Davis? http://www.bbtia.com/home/2010/6/24/the-curious-case-of-christopher-davis.html

Chris Davis Going Forward

Prior to each season, Baseball Prospectus publishes a list of players whose age-appropriate statistical profiles are most similar to each player in the league. Earlier this year, the 15 players with statistical profiles through their age-23 seasons that were most similar to Chris Davis comprised eight players who became everyday contributors in the major leagues and included Eric Karros (No. 1), Glenn Davis (No. 4), Joey Votto (No. 6), Lee Stevens (No. 9), Richie Sexson (No. 12), and David Ortiz (No. 14).

According to the Minor League Equivalency Calculator, Davis’ .361/.414/.564 in 202 Triple-A at-bats would be equivalent to a major league line of .305/.354/.459. That’s Adam LaRoche/Gaby Sanchez-level production. Davis’ .368/.418/.583 in 163 Triple-A at-bats against right-handed pitchers translates to a major league line of .312/.358/.482, while his .306/.381/.389 against left-handers would be equivalent to .259/.302/.326 in the majors. Davis is Ryan Howard when facing right-handers and a Triple-A journeyman when facing left-handers.

[SteveA]

I know Chris Davis has a ton of power but hasn't been able to translate it to the major league level yet. Tommy Hunter seems like a solid pitcher who has trouble staying healthy but has a ton of ability. Thoughts?

42 HRs and 49 doubles in 878 ML plate appearances... I would say his power has translated to the majors just fine. His average is what has suffered at the ML level.

[Go_Os]

Rotoworld's take:

This is a great haul for the Orioles. They acquire a pair of young players whose trade value was at its nadir for a setup man with little utility on a last-place team. Hunter has been operating in relief for the Rangers, but the Orioles view him as a long-term starter. The 24-year-old right-hander, a first-round pick in the 2007 draft, is 23-13 with a 4.36 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 151/74 K/BB rate over 266 1/3 career major league innings.

[SteveO]

I think Andy has been a horrible GM but am gonna give kudos to him on this trade. For a 36 y.o reliever who has zero chance of being part of the team when the Orioles are finally competitive Andy managed to get a guy who can be a competent #4 starter and in Davis a guy who at worst provides you some depth at 1B/DH has some pop in his bat and some upside to him. Both these guys are young enough to be part of a rebuilding project but also contribute immediately ....thats pretty darn good haul for Koji...

[weams]

Rotoworld's take:

This is a great haul for the Orioles. They acquire a pair of young players whose trade value was at its nadir for a setup man with little utility on a last-place team. Hunter has been operating in relief for the Rangers, but the Orioles view him as a long-term starter. The 24-year-old right-hander, a first-round pick in the 2007 draft, is 23-13 with a 4.36 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 151/74 K/BB rate over 266 1/3 career major league innings.

I am almost certain.

[SpdyAlanWiggins]

I know Chris Davis has a ton of power but hasn't been able to translate it to the major league level yet. Tommy Hunter seems like a solid pitcher who has trouble staying healthy but has a ton of ability. Thoughts?

I think its a good deal, but I'm not sure about Chris Davis the guy strikes out a lot, but he has huge power. Tommy "Big Game" Hunter as he was known in Texas will definately help the rotation.

[eb45]

I don't see someone with Davis' walk rate being too successful in the bigs, but I'd love to be wrong. Hunter on the other hand I love if he can stay healthy.

[RavNMadMan]

I think it's a good trade. The acid test will be when we see these guys play for us.

[ccbird]

The first thing I thought when looking at Hunter's numbers is "Jeremy Guthrie". Low walks and strikeouts, prone to home runs, and seems to out-perform his peripherals. Those who know more than I do: how far off am I?

That was my thought as well. If Hunter can be Guthrie for the next 3 or 4 years, I'll be happy. Coming around on the trade because I'm starting to think Hunter can indeed give us 3 Guthrie type years. Davis I'm chalking up to being a AAAA but still holding out hope something clicks. Still, would have prefered a lower lever higher upside prospect but I'll say a B or B-.

[Crazysilver03]

Disappointing. Koji is top notch, signed for another year, might well be worth two picks at the end of it. Return isn't bad but I was hoping for a top prospect at a lower level.

The argument can be made that it is pointless to have a top notch set-up guy on a team like the Orioles. While he was signed for another year, if he stayed healthy for the rest of this year, it is highly unlikely he would have been worth picks at the end of this year, or next. A team will unlikely give up a first round pick for a 37 year old reliever. While he has been top notch, there are still lingering questions about health and endurance.

[BaltimoreTerp]

The argument can be made that it is pointless to have a top notch set-up guy on a team like the Orioles. While he was signed for another year, if he stayed healthy for the rest of this year, it is highly unlikely he would have been worth picks at the end of this year, or next. A team will unlikely give up a first round pick for a 37 year old reliever. While he has been top notch, there are still lingering questions about health and endurance.

That's something that people often forget when they think about the Type-A compensation. Another team has to want to pay not only for that player, but give up those picks. The older a player is or the more questionable their production, the less likely a team will be to sign them in that circumstance.

Then again, I think two-plus seasons as a lights-out reliever might make him a Type-B, so at least a supplementary pick would be in play. But is that one pick worth multiple years each of Hunter and Davis?

[SpdyAlanWiggins]

I don't see someone with Davis' walk rate being too successful in the bigs, but I'd love to be wrong. Hunter on the other hand I love if he can stay healthy.

I fear you could be right about Chris Davis. I get to see the Rangers a lot and the accepted scouting report on him is that he is a AAAA player. He'll play brilliantly in the minors and disappoint in the majors, but I'm hopeful he'll turn things around here he's only 25. Hunter is only 24 and we can count on him going right into the rotation.

[Can_of_corn]

Folks keep saying that Koji would be worth two picks and while he would be a type "A" free agent I don't think the O's would have received two picks for him. First off Koji liked Baltimore, he wasn't offered arbitration last offseason because AM felt confident that he would accept if it was offered, a suspicion proved true as he signed a deal with Baltimore for less money then he would have received in arbitration. What makes anyone think he would have refused arbitration after the '12 season? I also agree with Crazysilver that a team would be unlikely to give up a first or second round pick to secure Koji's services as a 38 year old.

[fish113d]

I am a huge Koji fan since they put him in a late-inning role, and I will miss him, BUT with that being said, I am a huge supporter of this deal. Davis has potential as does Hunter, and I'm excited to see us deal Lee for minor league support, unload Vlad, and retool our minor league system a bit with some depth.

Davis can play 1B..no worries there. Tommy Hunter had 13 wins for Texas last year with a sub-4 ERA and he pitched in Arlington which is a huge hitters' park. Who knows? This can't be a bad deal...it really can't.

[Crazysilver03]

That's something that people often forget when they think about the Type-A compensation. Another team has to want to pay not only for that player, but give up those picks. The older a player is or the more questionable their production, the less likely a team will be to sign them in that circumstance.

Then again, I think two-plus seasons as a lights-out reliever might make him a Type-B, so at least a supplementary pick would be in play. But is that one pick worth multiple years each of Hunter and Davis?

Well I should restate that Koji would be worth picks, definitely. He is the highest rated reliever in the majors in terms of Elias, but no teams will pay the price for him.