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BA: Adam Jones 2nd best defensive OF in the AL

wildcard

By wildcard
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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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I've never understood this statement. Why are one season's numbers not useful, but two or three season's numbers are?

The statisicians estimate that one year of offensive stats has about the same stability as 3 years of UZR/advanced fielding metrics. There are less opportunites and more variables with defensive stats so it is more unstable on a year-to-year basis. A 3-4 average and consideration of trends and variations is the appropriate way to look at advanced fielding metrics like UZR. Even then, a pool of more/less talented players at a particular position has to be considered as it can cause wide variation since it's a relative scale with a small pool of comparative players. Not to mention injuries/age etc. potentially affecting defense more than offense. Bottom line is people get too wrapped up about one years worth of numbers instead of looking at the broader overall picture.

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ledzepp8 Hangout Grand Counsel

ledzepp8

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The statisicians estimate that one year of offensive stats has about the same stability as 3 years of UZR/advanced fielding metrics. There are less opportunites and more variables with defensive stats so it is more unstable on a year-to-year basis. A 3-4 average and consideration of trends and variations is the appropriate way to look at advanced fielding metrics like UZR. Even then, a pool of more/less talented players at a particular position has to be considered as it can cause wide variation since it's a relative scale with a small pool of comparative players. Not to mention injuries/age etc. potentially affecting defense more than offense. Bottom line is people get too wrapped up about one years worth of numbers instead of looking at the broader overall picture.

Thanks for the reply. What makes one year's worth of info unstable though? Are we saying that it could be inaccurate? If so, why does repeating that info for three years suddenly make it accurate?

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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Thanks for the reply. What makes one year's worth of info unstable though? Are we saying that it could be inaccurate? If so, why does repeating that info for three years suddenly make it accurate?

I'll try and use an anaology here. Maybe it will be easier. Would you judge every hitters year by how they were doing on May 20th?

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ledzepp8 Hangout Grand Counsel

ledzepp8

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I'll try and use an anaology here. Maybe it will be easier. Would you judge every hitters year by how they were doing on May 20th?

No I would not. It just seems like a year's worth of stats are deemed unstable because there could be inaccuracies. If those inaccuracies get repeated, it seems like the stats are then deemed stable just because there's a larger sample size.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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No I would not. It just seems like a year's worth of stats are deemed unstable because there could be inaccuracies. If those inaccuracies get repeated, it seems like the stats are then deemed stable just because there's a larger sample size.

Sample size is definitely the core of the issue. A hitter will get many more AB's over a year than a fielder will get chances. It also has to do with the variation of hit balls. More accurate measurement and scoring of a hit ball with Field F/X should help with the stability.

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