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Why_Knott?

By Why_Knott?
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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

Posted
Posted
By this logic, that means that the difference between replacement pitchers win total and Clayton Kershaw or Just Verlanders is less than 7 wins for the pitcher. Also, does that mean if Verlander's WAR is 7, that a replacement level pitcher wins 17 games?

I understand the WAR logic for positional players but I still dont understand it for pitchers.

fWar for pitchers is based on FIP (rWar is more complicated, but lets stick with fWar for simplicity). It's bit more involved than just FIP and it diverges for relievers with leverage considerations, but that's basically how it's determined, so stay with me. How far you rate above/below replacement level FIP is converted into wins. You have a good FIP and pitch a lot of innings, you'll have a good WAR. It does not matter how many games you actually win or lose. This is a contribution to wins. It's (primarily) FIP and the IP contribution (remember WAR is a counting stat) that determines value.

The methodology for a replacement level appears to be pretty well set. Basically, a replacement level SP will win (for his team, not himself) 38% of his starts. This is assumes he is pitching for an "average" team against an "average" opponent and has a replacement level bullpen. That's the basis for fWar for an SP. In 30 starts a replacement level SP would net his team 11.4 wins. Not good. A league average pitcher (league average FIP) would win 50% of his starts (fairly inuititive) so it would be 15 wins (for his team again) in 30 starts. So the difference between replacement and average for a SP is 3.6 wins (in 30 average starts). This is the basis (for SP's only), so it does not change. I do not know how they came up with it and the basis for RP's is different.

The more complicated part is determining what FIP is replacement level. It changes each year, is different for SP's and RP's and is different for each league. I'm not going to get into that, but just believe it can be calculated with a little work. Once it's calculated, you can determine where each pitcher falls and figure his win/WAR value.

Hope that helps.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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Posted
Is there a stat that shows how many wins (total) a player is responsible for?

You could calculate wins above average or even wins above average for each respective team with a little work. I don't know that those are published but runs above average is provided in various formats I believe. Theoretically you could proportion WAR against an average/index and come up with a number I guess.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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I'm far from a stat expert, but that's the way I'm leaning. The everyday player has to be more valuable.

Depends how you look at value I guess. A 7 WAR pitcher may in fact equal a 7 WAR hitter/player (I have some doubt), but a 7 WAR pitcher is a heck of a lot harder to find. Hence a team may be inclined to pay more for that 7 WAR pitcher than the 7 WAR hitter. Then we could get into whole bunch of other issues like durability, marginal value etc.

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