Duquette needs a "Plan B" for the offense

[El Gordo]

I would have asked the Mets what David Wright's price tag was and entertained moving Reynolds to 1B. That's about it in terms of the offense.

Take a look at Wright's stats the past 3 years, epecially his D numbers. And then take a look at his contract.

[LookinUp]

But we should be in the range of the Jays (who outscored us by 35 runs last year) and the Rays (who scored one run less). And, we should be in the top half of the league again.

Just to interject myself into this argument...

I think Frobby's original quote on this WAS presumptious, and that's what SG is pointing out. We can take for granted that this team SHOULD be in the top half, or we can consider the possibility that Endy Chavez, Matt Antonelli and Jai Miller get a ton of ABs; Hardy plays 60 games; Markakis isn't his old self until July; Davis K's every other AB and is benched in favor of "Big" Joe Mahoney, etc.

Sure, if Reimold plays 155 games, Davis is ok, Hardy stays healthy, Andino isn't Mendoza and Markakis is ready and performing early in the season, projections suggest we should be about average. That's a lot of if's to be average though.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Take a look at Wright's stats the past 3 years, epecially his D numbers. And then take a look at his contract.

He's one year removed from an .855 OPS season (I'll let you guess where that would have ranked on our team last year) and last season he was hurt -- who knows if his back injury hindered him.

The point is, when you consider his contract he probably would not cost a lot prospect-wise. Hell, maybe the Mets would be willing to eat some of his salary. I think Wright at 3B and Reynolds at 1B makes our team exponentially better than Reynolds at 3B and Davis at 1B. It's a risk worth taking and it costs $0.00 to make a phone call (unless DD bills his hours).

[mweb]

Just to interject myself into this argument...

I think Frobby's original quote on this WAS presumptious, and that's what SG is pointing out. We can take for granted that this team SHOULD be in the top half, or we can consider the possibility that Endy Chavez, Matt Antonelli and Jai Miller get a ton of ABs; Hardy plays 60 games; Markakis isn't his old self until July; Davis K's every other AB and is benched in favor of "Big" Joe Mahoney, etc.

Sure, if Reimold plays 155 games, Davis is ok, Hardy stays healthy, Andino isn't Mendoza and Markakis is ready and performing early in the season, projections suggest we should be about average. That's a lot of if's to be average though.

Well of course there are if's.

However, the additions and subtractions likely leads to a positive gain offensively.

On paper, the offense is at least as good as it was last year.

[mweb]

He's one year removed from an .855 OPS season (I'll let you guess where that would have ranked on our team last year) and last season he was hurt -- who knows if his back injury hindered him.

The point is, when you consider his contract he probably would not cost a lot prospect-wise. Hell, maybe the Mets would be willing to eat some of his salary. I think Wright at 3B and Reynolds at 1B makes our team exponentially better than Reynolds at 3B and Davis at 1B. It's a risk worth taking and it costs $0.00 to make a phone call (unless DD bills his hours).

I believe the cost to get him is still rather high from what was reported earlier this off-season.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I believe the cost to get him is still rather high from what was reported earlier this off-season.

I hadn't read those reports. Obviously if they are asking for the moon we hang up.

Do you have a link?

[mweb]

I hadn't read those reports. Obviously if they are asking for the moon we hang up.

Do you have a link?

No, just from memory. I wouldn't say they are asking for the moon either, just far from giving him away.

Plus, he'd be able to nix the '13 team option if traded.

I wouldn't deal much for 1 year of him.

[LookinUp]

Average isn't good enough.

Trea,

IMO, you need to totally flip the target of your anger. Here are a few things that I think DD understands, but that you disagree with.

1. Payroll isn't going to jump wildly under Angelos.

We have certain committments embedded into our payroll. That includes Roberts, and underperforming and injured Markakis, a declining Guthrie, a next-to-worthless Gregg and an overpaid Reynolds. Absent payroll dumps, we don't have the flexibility to add much of anything in this budget.

2. Understanding our payroll limitations, our only chance at short term success is to take chances at low probability players.

DD is doing this in the form of Davis, Reimold, Chen, Wada and whatever we do at 2B. If these guys perform like O's fans would wish in their dreams, this team has a chance to surprise even under this payroll.

3. DD's only other way to improve this team would include trading an expensive guy now (e.g., Guthrie, Reynolds, Jones) and trying to replace them in the payroll with guys like Jackson, Jurrjens and Prado.

This is TBD, but those changes are likely to net only little improvement for 2012. They would be moves that are expected to pay off moreso in 2013 and beyond in the form of payroll flexibility and hopefully a couple of good prospects.

4. The "low probability" description cannot be ignored.

This franchise can only compete under our current constraints (payroll and ownership) if EVERYTHING goes right. Stranger things have happened, but the probability for 2012 real success is very small and the opportunity to improve under these constraints is equally small.

5. This all points out the obvious...AM's rebuild was a complete failure.

We have a couple of pieces, most of which were actually drafted before he even came here. He failed to acquire many real solutions for the future, and his most talented young acquisitions aren't here yet, or even close. This organization is in shambles, with very little payroll flexibility, zero talented depth and only a couple of average/good trade chips.

6. So, DD is starting his own, full-scale rebuild.

Make no mistake, DD has started over. We all see it in the organizational chart, but it's also on the ML team. They don't want to say it, but this team isn't concerned about 2012 and they shouldn't be. They're concerned about using 2012 to get better in the future. That means giving Reimold and Davis sink or swim opportunities. Trading Jones and Guthrie. Only signing guys to substantial deals (so far, nobody) who will be here and good in a couple of years. Getting out of contracts for underperforming (Gregg) or soon to be expensive (Jones) guys.

So, my advice to you is simple. Keep your fandom and your passion. Just recognize that this team is once again in a rebuild. Accept that and re-direct your awesome Orioles-fan energy away from pipe dreams like signing Fielder or giving Cespedes $60 million high risk dollars and toward arguing for how we can best implement a successful rebuild this time.

That's my 52 cents.

[Frobby]

Just to interject myself into this argument...

I think Frobby's original quote on this WAS presumptious, and that's what SG is pointing out. We can take for granted that this team SHOULD be in the top half, or we can consider the possibility that Endy Chavez, Matt Antonelli and Jai Miller get a ton of ABs; Hardy plays 60 games; Markakis isn't his old self until July; Davis K's every other AB and is benched in favor of "Big" Joe Mahoney, etc.

Sure, if Reimold plays 155 games, Davis is ok, Hardy stays healthy, Andino isn't Mendoza and Markakis is ready and performing early in the season, projections suggest we should be about average. That's a lot of if's to be average though.

I guess I missed the part where the word "should" meant "will." Of course things could happen that would cause the offense not to be average. That could happen to Toronto or Tampa, as well. Take a look at how few games Tampa has lost to injuries the last two years -- it is near-miraculous.

[JTrea81]

Trea,

IMO, you need to totally flip the target of your anger. Here are a few things that I think DD understands, but that you disagree with.

1. Payroll isn't going to jump wildly under Angelos.

We have certain committments embedded into our payroll. That includes Roberts, and underperforming and injured Markakis, a declining Guthrie, a next-to-worthless Gregg and an overpaid Reynolds. Absent payroll dumps, we don't have the flexibility to add much of anything in this budget.

2. Understanding our payroll limitations, our only chance at short term success is to take chances at low probability players.

DD is doing this in the form of Davis, Reimold, Chen, Wada and whatever we do at 2B. If these guys perform like O's fans would wish in their dreams, this team has a chance to surprise even under this payroll.

3. DD's only other way to improve this team would include trading an expensive guy now (e.g., Guthrie, Reynolds, Jones) and trying to replace them in the payroll with guys like Jackson, Jurrjens and Prado.

This is TBD, but those changes are likely to net only little improvement for 2012. They would be moves that are expected to pay off moreso in 2013 and beyond in the form of payroll flexibility and hopefully a couple of good prospects.

4. The "low probability" description cannot be ignored.

This franchise can only compete under our current constraints (payroll and ownership) if EVERYTHING goes right. Stranger things have happened, but the probability for 2012 real success is very small and the opportunity to improve under these constraints is equally small.

5. This all points out the obvious...AM's rebuild was a complete failure.

We have a couple of pieces, most of which were actually drafted before he even came here. He failed to acquire many real solutions for the future, and his most talented young acquisitions aren't here yet, or even close. This organization is in shambles, with very little payroll flexibility, zero talented depth and only a couple of average/good trade chips.

6. So, DD is starting his own, full-scale rebuild.

Make no mistake, DD has started over. We all see it in the organizational chart, but it's also on the ML team. They don't want to say it, but this team isn't concerned about 2012 and they shouldn't be. They're concerned about using 2012 to get better in the future. That means giving Reimold and Davis sink or swim opportunities. Trading Jones and Guthrie. Only signing guys to substantial deals (so far, nobody) who will be here and good in a couple of years. Getting out of contracts for underperforming (Gregg) or soon to be expensive (Jones) guys.

So, my advice to you is simple. Keep your fandom and your passion. Just recognize that this team is once again in a rebuild. Accept that and re-direct your awesome Orioles-fan energy away from pipe dreams like signing Fielder or giving Cespedes $60 million high risk dollars and toward arguing for how we can best implement a successful rebuild this time.

That's my 52 cents.

Let me tell you that what I heard during the Fielder saga, especially at the end tells me Duquette and Angelos are not rebuilding, and were and are prepared to ramp up payroll.

This is not a rebuilding team and the Orioles want to be competitive in 2012 if they can get the pieces to do so.

The question is can they?

[Spoonless]

Am I the only one on this site who isn't "hearing things" as an insider? I want to play, too.

[spneca]

Let me tell you that what I heard during the Fielder saga, especially at the end tells me Duquette and Angelos are not rebuilding, and were and are prepared to ramp up payroll.

This is not a rebuilding team and the Orioles want to be competitive in 2012 if they can get the pieces to do so.

The question is can they?

The answer is "No, probably not." Unless we catch lightning in a jar, I don't think we will come anywhere close.

[crawjo]

I think getting Jackson would go a long ways towards stabilizing the rotation for the next few years, which is why I hope they will green-light the cash to sign him. No, he's not an ace, but he would remove some question marks around the pitching at this point, which I think still has to be the greatest concern.

Otherwise, I like the moves Duquette has made for very little money: Betemit can be very useful if platooned and Chavez upgrades our outfield defense. I think the bench will be much better next year.

[El Gordo]

Just to interject myself into this argument...

I think Frobby's original quote on this WAS presumptious, and that's what SG is pointing out. We can take for granted that this team SHOULD be in the top half, or we can consider the possibility that Endy Chavez, Matt Antonelli and Jai Miller get a ton of ABs; Hardy plays 60 games; Markakis isn't his old self until July; Davis K's every other AB and is benched in favor of "Big" Joe Mahoney, etc.

Sure, if Reimold plays 155 games, Davis is ok, Hardy stays healthy, Andino isn't Mendoza and Markakis is ready and performing early in the season, projections suggest we should be about average. That's a lot of if's to be average though.

We were average last year with this production from the positions:

C. 739 OPS

1B .755 OPS

2B ,641 OPS

3B. 696 OPS

SS .788

LF. 638 OPS

CF .765 OPS

RF .777 OPS

DH .734 OPS

You really think Reimold can't do better than .638 OPS Betemit can't do better than .734 OPS, or Reynold can't top .696? Granted Davis may not do .755 and Jones Markakis and Hardy may not do more than their last years position averages but they are not likely to do much worse. Anyone can invent ddomsday scenarios But the odds are pretty good they do as well, if not better, next year.

[Dagger420]

This is just a terrible lineup going into 2012 IMO:

DH Betemit

RF Markakis

CF Jones

3B Reynolds

SS Hardy

C Wieters

LF Reimold

1B Davis

2B Antonelli/Andino/Flaherty

Jones is not a #3 hitter and is better suited for #5

Reynolds should be near the bottom of the order.

Reimold/Davis/Betemit and our 2B crew are basically better served as depth, not starters for a competitive team.

We lost Scott, Vlad, Lee and even though they were not setting the world on fire last year, we still haven't adequately replaced them.

How are we supposed to be over .500 with this lineup especially with the collection of #4 starters we are putting in our rotation?

The offense has to be fixed as it is likely worse than last years.

Ryan Adams is every bit as solid as the three second basemen you listed. And i think Jai Miller is going to compete with Reimold/Betemit.

To me Cespedes is a must, but we all know this is the O's... We'll be lucky to finish 4th in any given year.