Cespedes to Oakland

[Dwight Schrute]

This is a pretty smart risk to take IMHO.

$12 million a year is significant (especially for Oakland) but at 4 years, I think that's less risky then paying $8 million a year for 6 years.

Why the Orioles wouldn't be all over a 4 year deal is beyond me.

Unless the scouts didn't like what they saw...

If our scouts didn't like what they saw that's an even better reason to make the deal.

[Os84]

Any chance this motivates the Marlins to start talking to the O's about Jones?

[hobokenPauli]

How do think Jai Miller would match up with Cespedes? I just think its interesting that BB would let a cheap athletic, speedy powerful outfielder go (for nothing)...to acquire an expensive speedy powerful outfielder. Especially considering there are huge risks with Cespedes (steroids, no experience outside Cuba etc). So let me ask you...who has a better year in the majors in 2012: Cespedes or Jai Miller?

[Spoonless]

Don't you just love how teams like the Marlins and the A's are offering contracts, and the O's had plans to go down there again this week to "check" him out again? So by current calculations a week after he signs the O's will be ready to offer a contract that will be off by both years and dollars.

Typical

So you're a proponent of spending more than 4 years, $36M on a player of almost a complete unknown quality, with the team in the state it's in?

[canonfaz]

I was hoping that we signed him only because we could see his youtube video on the jumbotron during home games.

[Can_of_corn]

How do think Jai Miller would match up with Cespedes? I just think its interesting that BB would let a cheap athletic, speedy powerful outfielder go (for nothing)...to acquire an expensive speedy powerful outfielder. Especially considering there are huge risks with Cespedes (steroids, no experience outside Cuba etc). So let me ask you...who has a better year in the majors in 2012: Cespedes or Jai Miller?

Jai Miller is a fifth outfielder, for the contract that Cespedes signed he will be starting.

[DrungoHazewood]

That seems a huge gamble on his MLB-readiness. Even a minor hiccup and you're looking at $12m a year.

I just don't see how it's that big of a gamble for a team with a relatively bare minor league system and a serious talent deficit at the MLB level. It's $9M a year, or about 1/10th of their payroll or 1/15th of their (payroll + what used to be a good amateur/int'l budget).

So you're a proponent of spending more than 4 years, $36M on a player of almost a complete unknown quality, with the team in the state it's in?

But he's not a complete unknown. There's all kinds of scouting reports on him. People have a pretty good idea that he's a somewhat riskier Adam Jones, potentially with more power and defense but a shaky contact/hit tool.

I'm curious as to why the O's expressed interest, but weren't interested in a pricetag that was far below his rumored level. (Insert pennypinching Angelos shots here, MacPhail faux interest in free agent cracks here)

[DrungoHazewood]

How do think Jai Miller would match up with Cespedes? I just think its interesting that BB would let a cheap athletic, speedy powerful outfielder go (for nothing)...to acquire an expensive speedy powerful outfielder. Especially considering there are huge risks with Cespedes (steroids, no experience outside Cuba etc). So let me ask you...who has a better year in the majors in 2012: Cespedes or Jai Miller?

Jai Miller's mid-case would have to be Cespedes' worst-case scenario. Strikes out in 45% of PAs and crashes and burns, ends up as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. Given the relative interest in the two players I'd assume Cespedes' scouting reports are massively better. Stotle?

[Lucky Jim]

I just don't see how it's that big of a gamble for a team with a relatively bare minor league system and a serious talent deficit at the MLB level. It's $9M a year, or about 1/10th of their payroll or 1/15th of their (payroll + what used to be a good amateur/int'l budget).

It's only $9m a year if he makes it to MLB in year one. What if he makes it in year two? Or year two-and-a-half?

I'm not shocked that we disagree on int'l spend, or on translating performance.

[SammyBirdland]

Jai Miller is a fifth outfielder, for the contract that Cespedes signed he will be starting.

That being said, he'll spend most of the season as the 4th outfielder due to Chavez injuries.

[Kinvan]

So you're a proponent of spending more than 4 years, $36M on a player of almost a complete unknown quality, with the team in the state it's in?

I wasn't speaking about Cespedes in particular. The point that I was trying to make was that in today's baseball economy that it is not very uncommon to have outfielders making 10-12 million...and these are for your average to above average players (eg Markakis).

[atomic]

Cepedes is a FA after the four years.

So what you are saying is if he is total bust and spends the last two years of his contract at AAA where he struggles he will be our starting CF in 2016?

[DrungoHazewood]

It's only $9m a year if he makes it to MLB in year one. What if he makes it in year two? Or year two-and-a-half?

You're making a bet that he's going to be a fairly good MLB player from day one, or close enough to day one. If he spends a couple years in the minors your scouts have failed, and his contract will be a bust. My assumption is that he's 26, and his physical tools will never be any better. If he needs a year or two in AAA to adjust he's just not that good.

But the whole idea of the signing is upside. You're paying him for two wins a year on the hope he gives you 12+ over the life of the contract. The Orioles' problem isn't that they can't find 2-win players to pay $10M a year. Their problem is that they don't have nearly enough 3, 4, 5+ win players, and my argument is that you occasionally have to take on some risk to get that upside.

[atomic]

So you're a proponent of spending more than 4 years, $36M on a player of almost a complete unknown quality, with the team in the state it's in?

You could take a few of the players who have no chance of ever being a postivie at the major league level that DD signed to contracts to this offseason and you would have 8 million easy. At least Cespedes has a chance to be something.

[jabba72]

The Orioles are paying Roberts $10m per year to do nothing for 4 years. They could have offered Cespedes 4 years $40M and signed him. Instead...nothing. As usual. Pretty sure the interest in Cespedes was "pretend interest". They probably wanted nothing to do with him.