Article that explains the off season (problems)

[SilentJames]

By my count it looks like we have gotten better at: 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, RF, C, and SP.

We have gotten worse at: CF, DH, RP.

I say we have a much better team in 2013 than in 2012.

I don't know how we have gotten better at first, or worse at cf? At the end of the day this team should be fine. The rotation really came around in the second half, that is something that should not be overlooked, yet often is.

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[Tryptamine]

It boils down to whether you believe in Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez and Tillman -- especially the latter two. If you believe in them, you believe the Orioles will have above average starting pitching. And that's where opinions vary.

The problem there is that a lot numbers don't show that they can. Below is a link that shows those peripherals. What we can tell from them is that Hammel's season was completely legit. Fantastic FIP and xFIP, and the babip and strand rate was pretty standard. Chen was for the most part legit, he did get a bit lucky(.272babip) so maybe you'd expect a slight step back on his ERA assuming neutral luck. Now come the problems. Tillman's FIP and xFIP are so out of wack with his sub 3 ERA and that's because he has an absolutely unsustainable .221babip. That's the second lowest in baseball for all major league pitchers who threw at least 80 innings. The chance for some major regression is pretty high. In the case of Gonzalez his FIP and xFIP are a full run higher than his ERA. His babip is a bit low(.260), but what really sticks out is his 82.6% strand rate which is abnormally high. On the flip side of the coin, Arrieta seems to get no love from the majority of the posters but his numbers suggest he's more likely to succeed in the future than Tillman, Matusz or Gonzalez. He has a good FIP, a very strong xFIP, the best K/BB ratio of all the pitchers and his babip is a little bit high. What really sticks out here is a ridiculously low 57.3% strand rate which either means he was tremendously unlucky with men on base or he's terrible out of the stretch.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4153,13071,7024,4538,5279,2646

[Crazysilver03]

You can get by with subpar starting pitching if you have an elite offense. But though the Orioles offense made like their starting pitching and came around at the end of the year, it never improved to the point of being elite. The O's finished the season ranked 15th in runs, 20th in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage and 11th in slugging percentage.

Ask the Texas Rangers what got them to the playoffs. Oh yeah, fixing the rotation after leading the league in offense for several seasons.

[wildcard]

Very negative. Doesn't really talk about the starters improving in the 2nd half. Who says that McLouth is a 4th outfielder? Mentions the addition for Myers for Tampa but not the hole that Shields being traded leaves.

I can write one equally positive using just facts.

[Crazysilver03]

The problem there is that a lot numbers don't show that they can. Below is a link that shows those peripherals. What we can tell from them is that Hammel's season was completely legit. Fantastic FIP and xFIP, and the babip and strand rate was pretty standard. Chen was for the most part legit, he did get a bit lucky(.272babip) so maybe you'd expect a slight step back on his ERA assuming neutral luck. Now come the problems. Tillman's FIP and xFIP are so out of wack with his sub 3 ERA and that's because he has an absolutely unsustainable .221babip. That's the second lowest in baseball for all major league pitchers who threw at least 80 innings. The chance for some major regression is pretty high. In the case of Gonzalez his FIP and xFIP are a full run higher than his ERA. His babip is a bit low(.260), but what really sticks out is his 82.6% strand rate which is abnormally high. On the flip side of the coin, Arrieta seems to get no love from the majority of the posters but his numbers suggest he's more likely to succeed in the future than Tillman, Matusz or Gonzalez. He has a good FIP, a very strong xFIP, the best K/BB ratio of all the pitchers and his babip is a little bit high. What really sticks out here is a ridiculously low 57.3% strand rate which either means he was tremendously unlucky with men on base or he's terrible out of the stretch.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4153,13071,7024,4538,5279,2646

We have had discussion after discussion about Arreita's peripherals vs. his actual stats. Arrieta looks like a good pitcher with bad luck, but he has had bad luck almost his entire time in the majors. Eventually results matter.

[Tryptamine]

We have had discussion after discussion about Arreita's peripherals vs. his actual stats. Arrieta looks like a good pitcher with bad luck, but he has had bad luck almost his entire time in the majors. Eventually results matter.

I obviously don't watch many O's game, so I'll defer to you. Is he just really terrible out of the stretch? Are his mechanics different? Because if it's not something like that, then I don't know how you can explain his ridiculously low strand rate. Also I'm not sure where you're getting that he's had bad luck the whole time. His peripherals in 2010 and 2011 were very poor compared to last year.

[weams]

We have had discussion after discussion about Arreita's peripherals vs. his actual stats. Arrieta looks like a good pitcher with bad luck, but he has had bad luck almost his entire time in the majors. Eventually results matter.

Some guys make their luck. Arrieta is a world beater. Until suddenly he's not. In the blink of an eye. He can't keep the release point or something.

[MrOrange82]

Some guys make their luck. Arrieta is a world beater. Until suddenly he's not. In the blink of an eye. He can't keep the release point or something.

Yep.

Arrieta's one of the few pitchers who's frequently made me think, with some small degree of legitimacy, "he could throw a no-hitter" after 2-3 innings, and then make me wonder whether he'll survive the 5th inning of the same game. I can't make sense of it, or make it gel with "the numbers," but Arrieta falls apart more rapidly and dramatically than most of the talented pitchers I can remember watching.

[SrMeowMeow]

Bleacher Report and MSK. A match made in heaven.

[Crazysilver03]

The thing is that so many folks keep behaving as if what I am saying is some outlandish concept. Also, I am glad someone else also "gets" my POV.

I am not saying stuff for the sake of being inflammatory, I just cannot believe the roster still looks like this after the 2012 miracle. I feel we're all going to be very, very disappointed if we don't make any moves to improve the offense.

And we still need at least one TOR starter. There's nothing happening.

MSK

Except the second half wasn't really a miracle. The team played extremely well to end the season.

[MemorialStadKid]

Very negative. Doesn't really talk about the starters improving in the 2nd half. Who says that McLouth is a 4th outfielder? Mentions the addition for Myers for Tampa but not the hole that Shields being traded leaves.

I can write one equally positive using just facts.

How is what this person said untrue?

The key items are in the original post. Where's the wiggling room?

MSK

[MemorialStadKid]

Bleacher Report and MSK. A match made in heaven.

I find that BR had some incredible insights from time to time. One article will be clearly amateurish while others hit the nail on the head.

This article isn't hyperbole or speculation-based. It discusses what we did and didn't do right last season and how we've done nothing to remedy that. It seems like a lot of OH folks pretend there's nothing wrong.

MSK

[Moose Milligan]

I stopped reading at http://www.bleacherrepor....

It's not even that MSK just keeps repeating himself ad-nauseam at every given opportunity...it's the fact that he's not even willing to listen to the opposition or anyone who slightly disagrees. It's downright Trea-ian.

[waroriole]

I stopped reading at http://www.bleacherrepor....

It's not even that MSK just keeps repeating himself ad-nauseam at every given opportunity...it's the fact that he's not even willing to listen to the opposition or anyone who slightly disagrees. It's downright Trea-ian.

Not only that, but anyone who disagrees loves Angelos and hates winning. He's the trolliest of trolls and is clearly just doing it to get people riled up.

[luismatos4prez]

This thread completely changed my mind and offered a fresh and interesting perspective.

- Nobody