Is Bundy this special?

[Number5]

There are good arguments for Bundy and for Upton. Truth be told, there are probably more projected front-end arms (maybe seven or eight) in the minors right now than potential five tool bats or playable "80" power bats. I think the best argument for holding onto Bundy comes down to the extra payroll felxibility you get with him. I think the best argument for Upton over Bundy is he is a better bet to help Baltimore win a World Series in the short term (next three years).

All that said, I can't imagine Bundy alone would net Upton unless there is something wrong with Upton that isn't public knowledge.

I agree with the points for each player that you present here, but I think the 3 additional years of control is a point for Bundy that needs to be factored in addition to the payroll flexibility, rather than being considered as a part of the payroll flexibility. If both players perform at the midpoint of their possible expectations, those three additional years would be huge, wouldn't they?

A lot has been said here about the risk of planning for a top prospect to produce as hoped, but I think we also need to recognize the very real risk that planning to win short term fails often as well. Seattle, Boston, and Miami all come to mind immediately as teams that have taken this course recently with disastrous results. I wish that I could say that I felt that the Orioles were so close to being among the favorites to win it all that adding an Upton would put us over the top. I just can't say that I think that is the case.

I have nowhere near your knowledge and experience, and I greatly appreciate the information you share with us. I'm just not thinking a Bundy-for-Upton trade would make sense for the Orioles right now. I realize that maybe my orange-colored glasses may be persuading me to listen to high projections for Bundy.

[Ruzious]

Except if he were an Orioles player already -- then he'd be a former All-Star with an MVP caliber tool set who has averaged over 4 fWAR over the last four seasons, worth over $20MM a year and untradeable unless Baltimore was getting a MONSTER return, right?

You can "dirty up" Upton based on last year, but the bottom line is he is two years younger than Jones and has been a better player for a longer time. I think most on here would scoff at the idea of trading Jones straight up for Taiwan Walker, Jose Fernandez, Zack Wheeler or Gerrit Cole.

I'm confused as to how I "dirtied up" a player by pointing out his OPS last year. Stotle, I think you have a great baseball mind, but you've wondered off a bit into left field on this one.

[Stotle]

At which point, Bundy would be in his 21 year old season. There's just so much potential value with Bundy that would make it hard to justify a trade for Upton.

Well, Bundy will be 22 in 2015, turning 23 that November. But that's not the point. The point is that he might not have meaningful impact on the big league team for the next year or maybe two. And that goes into the calculus when you are building a team.

[Stotle]

But that's the whole point. The risk of drafting Bundy when he actually was drafted was higher than the risk of drafting Strasburg, for many reasons, but in part because Strasburg was older and pitching in college, rather than fresh out of high school. Comparing the two bonuses at draft time is an apples-to-oranges comparison for that reason. Bundy now is much more comparable in terms of development/age to Strasburg when he was drafted.

I'm not sure what you are getting at. You could argue Strasburg has the best stuff in all of baseball. Bundy isn't any closer to him now than he was to Strasburg at their respective draft days. Bundy is a really impressive pitcher and could be a stud for the O's. He's still not in Strasburg's class.

[Frobby]

Not that I am arguing Bundy is better than Strasburg, but Strasburg was the #1 pick and coming out of college, two things that will inflate the signing bonus.

Assume that Bundy somehow was draft-eligible for the 2013 draft. Where would he be drafted (this is obvious) and what sort of bonus could he command? Obviously the draft bonus system has changed, etc., but I think the point is clear: His phenomenal performance in 2012 has changed his value.

Well, Bundy will be 22 in 2015, turning 23 that November. But that's not the point. The point is that he might not have meaningful impact on the big league team for the next year or maybe two. And that goes into the calculus when you are building a team.

Right. The Orioles are in a nice little window right now. By 2015 Wieters may be in his last year with the club, Markakis may be gone, etc. I'm still in favor of keeping Bundy, but these are things to consider.

[Stotle]

I agree with the points for each player that you present here, but I think the 3 additional years of control is a point for Bundy that needs to be factored in addition to the payroll flexibility, rather than being considered as a part of the payroll flexibility. If both players perform at the midpoint of their possible expectations, those three additional years would be huge, wouldn't they?

A lot has been said here about the risk of planning for a top prospect to produce as hoped, but I think we also need to recognize the very real risk that planning to win short term fails often as well. Seattle, Boston, and Miami all come to mind immediately as teams that have taken this course recently with disastrous results. I wish that I could say that I felt that the Orioles were so close to being among the favorites to win it all that adding an Upton would put us over the top. I just can't say that I think that is the case.

I have nowhere near your knowledge and experience, and I greatly appreciate the information you share with us. I'm just not thinking a Bundy-for-Upton trade would make sense for the Orioles right now. I realize that maybe my orange-colored glasses may be persuading me to listen to high projections for Bundy.

I think Baltimore is better off long term holding onto Bundy rather than moving him in a hypothetical deal for Upton. I agree with you. For me, it's a "now value" vs "later value" conversation, and the odds of Baltimore competing short term without adding payroll seems unlikely, to me, unless a lot of things break right. So sit and wait. If those things do break right, great!

[Stotle]

I'm confused as to how I "dirtied up" a player by pointing out his OPS last year. Stotle, I think you have a great baseball mind, but you've wondered off a bit into left field on this one.

Pointing to last year as a primary measuring stick is "dirtying up" the player because it's artificially lowering his value. It's ignoring a longer history of success, scouting reports, age, etc.

[weams]

Pointing to last year as a primary measuring stick is "dirtying up" the player because it's artificially lowering his value. It's ignoring a longer history of success, scouting reports, age, etc.

And yet, some players regress or get caught up to by the rest of the league. In those type of cases, paying attention to recent work is still "dirtying" but maybe fairly so

[Stotle]

And yet, some players regress or get caught up to by the rest of the league. In those type of cases, paying attention to recent work is still "dirtying" but maybe fairly so

Oh sure. But if you don't look at the whole picture, you're not really honestly assessing the player. You're looking for reasons to be down on him, right?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Oh sure. But if you don't look at the whole picture, you're not really honestly assessing the player. You're looking for reasons to be down on him, right?

So what do you make of the very severe home/away splits (large sample size and adjusted for park factor)?

Away wRC+ 96

Home wRC+ 138

[Justinlstn]

There are good arguments for Bundy and for Upton. Truth be told, there are probably more projected front-end arms (maybe seven or eight) in the minors right now than potential five tool bats or playable "80" power bats. I think the best argument for holding onto Bundy comes down to the extra payroll felxibility you get with him. I think the best argument for Upton over Bundy is he is a better bet to help Baltimore win a World Series in the short term (next three years).

All that said, I can't imagine Bundy alone would net Upton unless there is something wrong with Upton that isn't public knowledge.

Always one of my favorite posters to read on here. I really enjoy that you look at things without the orange tinted glasses on. I've never been a huge fan of Upton, i think he is a really good ball player across the board but he doesn't truly excel at one thing. Every year you hear that this is going be the huge break out year. With that said considering his age and an how well he could help the offense i would trade for him for bundy if we could but like you said Orioles wouldnt trade Jones for Gerrit Cole, or Taillon straight up so why would AZ trade Upton for bundy? i really wish we would of worked out a deal with the Royals for Alex Gordon, he would of been a nice player to have without the premium cost that somone like Upton would demand.

[Ruzious]

Pointing to last year as a primary measuring stick is "dirtying up" the player because it's artificially lowering his value. It's ignoring a longer history of success, scouting reports, age, etc.

This is ridiculous. I was responding to a post of yours where you did far worse.

[Stotle]

So what do you make of the very severe home/away splits (large sample size and adjusted for park factor)?

Away wRC+ 96

Home wRC+ 138

What is the cause of the splits? That is, what variable in that calculation changes so dramatically?

[CA-ORIOLE]

What is the cause of the splits? That is, what variable in that calculation changes so dramatically?

Those are good questions. I don't know. I just know they are very unusual. I mean it's not uncommon for players to have better home splits (even after the adjustments) or the adjusted splits to still be unbalanced, but nothing like that and over such a large sample size, at least that I can recall. I'd be less concerned if the splits were negative at home, but that's not the case. It would seem there is a crazy anomoly or something with the park in AZ (a good hitters park) is helping to artificially enhance his skills/performance numbers (or some combination of both).

[Stotle]

Those are good questions. I don't know. I just know they are very unusual. I mean it's not uncommon for players to have better home splits (even after the adjustments) or the adjusted splits to still be unbalanced, but nothing like that and over such a large sample size, at least that I can recall. I'd be less concerned if the splits were negative at home, but that's not the case. It would seem there is a crazy anomoly or something with the park in AZ (a good hitters park) is helping to artificially enhance his skills/performance numbers (or some combination of both).

Here you go. Cameron apparently wrote on this like three or four days ago. According to him the splits shouldn't be read as Upton being a home park creation. Much more nuance in the article and definitely worth the read:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/justin-upton-is-not-a-park-effect-mirage/