Could Orioles trade Jim Johnson for Porcello?

[Frobby]

Why is Porcello so highly regarded? Am I missing something?

I don't regard him that highly. I view him as an established no. 4 starter*, with some potential to move up to a no. 2 or 3, who is under team control for three more years, and is younger than Tillman, Britton, Hunter, Matusz or Arrieta. Which of those guys would you trade for one year of Ayala and a low level prospect?

* Although Porcello probably was the fifth starter on the Tigers, he'd be a fourth starter on most teams. He ranked 43rd in the AL in ERA among pitchers who threw 100+ innings, 26th among pitchers who pitched enough innings to qualify.

[pdiddy]

Would hate this move. Just not enough, in my opinion, for JJ.

I agree, particularly with Saunders available for cash. BUT, I would be on board if the O's could add a reasonable prospect and get Castellanos too. I just don't think that the Tigers would trade Porcello and Castellanos for two pitchers, and we don't have a position prospect that would fit.

[fearthenoodle]

People here (maybe rightly so) inflate the value of our own players, and I think specifically JJ. There just aren't as many GMs out there anymore who are enamored with things like "51 SAVES". An expensive closer under control for 2 years is not as valuable on the trade market today as it might have been a couple years ago, even.

[LookinUp]

Wow, that's a pretty strong statement about a guy who was pretty obviously not the best closer in baseball in 2012.

That's wonderful. If he was any better he might even be a 4th starter. It's hard to say someone is the best at something when that something is defined as "not good enough to move to the next level."

I think there is a deal with Detroit that could be done that would meet one of their big needs (closer) and two of our needs (SP, MOO bat), but would also weaken our bullpen.

O's spending:

Jim Johnson is owed ~ $17m over the next two years assuming he's offered arbitration and signed ($7, $10m per year)

Detroit spending:

Rick Porcello will probably make ~ $10m over the next two years, and he'd have one more year if I understand it correctly.

Victor Martinez is coming off an injury, is sort of redundant, and is worth $25m over the next two years, and the O's need a MOO bat.

So, if the O's did a straight up trade of J. Johnson for Martinez and Porcello, we'd be taking on something like $18 million over two years. However, if the O's made this trade, we'd have to think about what other actions that could affect. First, we wouldn't sign Joe Saunders. That would save us $6-7 million. However we would probably sign a bullpen guy to replace JJ for less, say $3-4 million (Wilson, Lindstrom, others?). So, back of the napkin says we'd still be assuming something like $15 million in salary over 2 years.

This represents the fundamentals of a deal that I'd do, and I'm assuming Martinez is healthy again and doesn't have a NTC to Baltimore. I suspect other players would have to be involved and some money might have to come back from Detroit.

Hypothetically, if we added Hardy to this deal things could get interesting. I assume we'd probably take Peralta back and hope he works out at 3B. So, instead of $15m over 2 years, the O's would be taking on $15m minus Hardy's $14m plus Peralta's $6m guaranteed. So, the O's would be taking on $7m in total over 2 years.

Now, you don't include Hardy for nothing. The idea of Hardy would be to try to find a way to pry Castellanos from Detroit. The O's would likely have to include another really nice piece to get this done, so it's unlikely to work. So, here are two trades I'd consider:

Trade #1

Orioles get Victor Martinez, Rick Porcello and $6 million

Detroit gets Jim Johnson and Xavier Avery (or some profile that helps them with speed/defense, perhaps Casilla)

Trade #2

Orioles get Martinez, Porcello, Peralta, Castellanos

Detroit gets Jim Johnson, JJ Hardy, Avery/Casilla, N. Delmonico and E. Rodriguez (I'd consider Schoop in this deal, but that sort of defeats the purpose for me)

[waroriole]

It's a tough call. I don't think that a middle of the road SP is that valuable to us. We have plenty of guys we need to give a shot to (Britton, Matusz, Johnson, Arrieta) before Gausman and Bundy get here.

In a vacuum, I think it's a good trade to make. However, I think I'm starting to change my mind about this and not trade him for Porcello, but I would trade him soon if we could get similar value at another position.

[LookinUp]

I should have added, the real trade #1 is Johnson for Porcello. They're taking on roughly $7m in salary over 2 years. We'd likely sign another BP arm but not Saunders, saving us another few million. So, it saves us something like $10m over 2 years. Seems like we'd be making out on that deal to me in a simple 1 for 1 trade.

[El Gordo]

I should have added, the real trade #1 is Johnson for Porcello. They're taking on roughly $7m in salary over 2 years. We'd likely sign another BP arm but not Saunders, saving us another few million. So, it saves us something like $10m over 2 years. Seems like we'd be making out on that deal to me in a simple 1 for 1 trade.

Why on earth would DET throw in VMart? They want him hitting behind Prince. I'd rather keep JJ and look for Britton to get it together. If he is right his upside is much higher than Porcello's and he's a GB pitcher as well.

[Number5]

Sign Saunders as the 5th starter and keep J Johnson.

This article treats the O's like non-contenders. If the Tigers want a veteran reliever let them sign Soriano, Wilson or Valverde. The O's have a winning formula with Jim Johnson as closer. There is not good reason to break up the pen for a 5th starter.

This is the winner!

I'm not necessarily totally against trading JJ, but it has got to be for something better than this - especially when we can sign Saunders. If a WOW offer doesn't come along for JJ, keep him!

[LookinUp]

Why on earth would DET throw in VMart? They want him hitting behind Prince. I'd rather keep JJ and look for Britton to get it together. If he is right his upside is much higher than Porcello's and he's a GB pitcher as well.

$25m for a DH is a lot of money. They don't need offense.

[Camden_yardbird]

If the Orioles were SP light I would say go for it. I'm the first to say that RP is replacable. But in this instance I am not inclined to favor this type of deal unless the Orioles were also sending one of their young pitchers with a percieved higher curling than Porcello, and were getting back a young cost controlled hitter like Castellanos (used only because I dont know their system)

[Can_of_corn]

$25m for a DH is a lot of money. They don't need offense.

They could have used some more last October.

[LookinUp]

Why on earth would DET throw in VMart? They want him hitting behind Prince. I'd rather keep JJ and look for Britton to get it together. If he is right his upside is much higher than Porcello's and he's a GB pitcher as well.

They could have used some more last October.

So are you two operating under the assumption that VMart (basically) isn't available, or are you saying we'd have to send more back their way? I could certainly see other pieces going back, though I'd want to stay away from our top 5ish prospects.

[VeveJones007]

People here (maybe rightly so) inflate the value of our own players, and I think specifically JJ. There just aren't as many GMs out there anymore who are enamored with things like "51 SAVES". An expensive closer under control for 2 years is not as valuable on the trade market today as it might have been a couple years ago, even.

I agree with this and would be open to a Johnson trade, but the value isn't there for a Johnson-Porcello swap. If the O's trade Johnson, it should be for cheap prospects rather than a soon-to-be-just-as-expensive 5th starter.

[El Gordo]

$25m for a DH is a lot of money. They don't need offense.

They absolutely need offense with that defense. And 13 M a year for a good DH isn't going to worry a team that has just given Prince 9/214 M.

[El Gordo]

So are you two operating under the assumption that VMart (basically) isn't available, or are you saying we'd have to send more back their way? I could certainly see other pieces going back, though I'd want to stay away from our top 5ish prospects.

I doubt VMart is available, but if he were they would want a lot more than JJ for him.