Ken Rosenthal's take on where Soriono will go?!?!

[davearm]

You have stated that a Radhames Liz is not enough to get Justin Huber. I say the Royals would jump at that. I have no doubt they would jump at Penn as well. Huber might be more highly rated than Penn by some gurus, as you call them. So if I find any prospect ranked ahead of another prospect that means it's a good deal?

Don't take things so literally.

You said I was overvaluing Huber.

I responded by pointing out that folks that make a living at this sort of thing put him in the same tier as Penn (and above Liz and Olson).

More to the point, since we were led to believe that the Rockies asked for Penn for Shealy, and Huber's better than Shealy, it would stand to reason that a bid of less than Penn, for a guy better than Shealy, won't get you very far.

[davearm]

Fair? What does fair have to do with anything?

We're talking about what player(s) the O's would have to fork over to get the young 1B they need/want. Who they'd have to let go of to get pen to paper on a deal to bring them a guy like Huber.

You say Liz/Olson, although it's unclear what that's based on beyond homerism.

I say it would take more, and it's based on past proposals and completed trades, involving very similar players like Shealy and Adrian Gonzalez. The precedent's there, whether you want to see it or not.

[NoVaO]

Dave is certainly overvaluing Huber.

Huber has had some nice years. He has plus plate discipline. His power is solid.

However, his BA makes me think he is going to struggle to hit MLB pitching. 2005 was a fluke year for him due to a BABIP of .398. He strikes out almost 25% of the time. He reminds me of Craig Wilson, but with less power, but he may not even reach that level considering what he did last year.

Plus, they have no where to put him. Shealy is at first and he will be better than the .780 OPS he put up last year. He kinda slumped toward the end of the year and then Butler is coming up right behind him. I would not give up Liz or Olson for him.

I like Carter much better, but again, there is nowhere to play him in Arizona. They would most likely jump on a deal that involves Olson or Liz.

Same goes for Kotchman in Anaheim. I don't understand why these guys, blocked first baseman with nowhere to play, demand a player like Erbe or Reimold (or both). Olson or Liz is definitely fair value for any one of those first basemen.

[KstateBird]

Huber's better than Shealy

While I would prefer Huber over Shealy, it's clear that Royals don't follow this premise, thus negating the rest of your argument.

[davearm]

A guy being blocked impacts a team's willingness to trade that particular player.

The mistake you're making is to assume it also lowers his market value. His market value isn't any different.

That is, availability does not equate to price. Price is set by what the other 29 teams are willing to pay.

[davearm]

While I would prefer Huber over Shealy, it's clear that Royals don't follow this premise, thus negating the rest of your argument.

My last post illustrates the fallacy here. If other teams would give up better players for Huber than Shealy, the Royals will certainly demand them.

[rolliefingers]

My last post illustrates the fallacy here. If other teams would give up better players for Huber than Shealy, the Royals will certainly demand them.

OTOH, young blocked first basemen are a common thing in MLB. You have a young power hitter who can't field, you put him at 1B (not saying that's necessarily wise, just generalizing). So, sure KC might ASK for Penn, but if that's true, you go to the Angels for Kotchman, TEX for Botts, etc. Supply and demand goes both ways.

[rolliefingers]

What precedent? Jeremy Affeldt was failed starter who continued to fail in the bullpen. Bautista is basically in the same boat and with some serious arm issues. The Rockies asked for Penn and the O's said no. We don't know what the O's actually did offer. You seem to think that since the Rockies asked for Penn, that Penn=Affeldt & Bautista. You go on to use that value to say that anything less than Penn will not get you Huber. Ask the Rockies if they would deal Affeltdt & Bautista for Penn. What do you think Dave?

Well said!!!

[66-70-83-??]

Why is it Alou can post consistantly high OPS in his late 30's but everyone seems to think it is a lock that Soriano can't make it past 35. Is Alou that much the superior athlete?

It is a good question that no one has answered. I would say "no" to your question.

And why all the angst about Soriano's last two years in Texas (808,821 OPS) ?

Where was the concern for Miggy when we signed him ? He was coming off years in Oakland of .808/.862/.802....

Career numbers (Miggy vs Soriano) favor Soriano in SLG/OPS/HR/SB, favor Tejada in BA/OBP. Sounds like Soriano would be a good compliment to Miggy in the lineup. And he would fill a big hole in LF.

Soriano had a .911 OPS last year. Maybe he goes on a run and has 3 seasons like this ? Sort of like how Miggy had his run in Baltimore (894/864/877) above his low years (808/802/752/682).

Paying Soriano 15-16 mill per is not much different than paying Tejada 12-13 mill per yr 4 years ago after accounting for inflation and a small premium for giving our organization some much needed credibility after three more years (post Tejada signing) stuck in 4th place.

[Lucky Jim]

Alou's career OBP is .043 higher than Soriano's.

So there's that.

Power will decline; patience not necessarily so quickly. Further, OBP is more valuable in run production than SLG.

So I guess there's that, too.

[KstateBird]

My last post illustrates the fallacy here. If other teams would give up better players for Huber than Shealy, the Royals will certainly demand them.

But why do you assume that other teams will give up good players for Huber, or even better than the one that got Shealy? That's a big assumption to make, and you're using it as a given.

Shealy was gotten for two damaged arms, I don't think that they represent a tremendous market value.

[Mark Carver]

It is a good question that no one has answered. I would say "no" to your question.

And why all the angst about Soriano's last two years in Texas (808,821 OPS) ?

Where was the concern for Miggy when we signed him ? He was coming off years in Oakland of .808/.862/.802....

For starters Tejada was 28 years old his 1st year with the Orioles. And his last 2 years in Oakland -

2003 - age 26 - 122 OPS+

2004 - age 27 - 117 OPS+

Sorianno will be 31 on opening day of 2007. His last 2 years in Texas -

2004 - 98 OPS+

2005 - 110 OPS+

Career numbers (Miggy vs Soriano) favor Soriano in SLG/OPS/HR/SB, favor Tejada in BA/OBP. Sounds like Soriano would be a good compliment to Miggy in the lineup. And he would fill a big hole in LF.

Soriano had a .911 OPS last year. Maybe he goes on a run and has 3 seasons like this ? Sort of like how Miggy had his run in Baltimore (894/864/877) above his low years (808/802/752/682).

Paying Soriano 15-16 mill per is not much different than paying Tejada 12-13 mill per yr 4 years ago after accounting for inflation and a small premium for giving our organization some much needed credibility after three more years (post Tejada signing) stuck in 4th place.

The difference is age... giving a 28 year old a 6 year deal is much better than giving a 31 year old the same number of years.

[mweb]

Soriano is the answer to LF. He is the answer to our power hitter. He is a complete player. He is part of the answer, just not the only part. I've explained this to you a dozen time, i.s.

AS for you MWeb, if you haven't figured out my argument the first 19 times I told you, its doubtful I could add anything to make it more illuminating for you today. Even (most) people who don't agree with my argument aren't having so much trouble understanding it

I'll drop this link for the last time we had this conversation. Maybe with a re-read it will be easier to comprehend

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=38250

I'm not re-reading that disaster of a thread to get an explanation that doesn't make sense and/or have merit. I don't have much of a problem with your position on Soriano though, I wouldn't spend as much for him, but your position is somewhat understandable on that.

However, the Tigers reference is an absolute joke. You act as if they went out and made big moves and took risks while we did not, while in fact, we made more big moves, and probably better moves as a whole. You give them credit for their moves and say we should follow their example, however we already did what they did in free agency/trades, and again, arguably better. To finish following their example, we would need our young pitching to step it up many notches, find a few diamonds in the rough, and get lucky like the Tigers did with Guillen.

If you want to argue we should take more risks, spend more money, well great, I'm all for that, although my risks would be different than yours, but please stop with this absurd Tigers arguement.

[mweb]

He is like Adrian Beltre though.

I don't think he's going to be a worthless player like Beltre is now, but I do think he will be right around his career averages, which is about what Beltre reverted to.

Not a big deal, but I just wanted to say that Beltre is far from worthless, although he's certainly been dissapointing with the Mariners. Had a 5.6 WARP3 last year, and a 7.8 this year.

[66-70-83-??]

The difference is age... giving a 28 year old a 6 year deal is much better than giving a 31 year old the same number of years.

I agree. I would rather have a comparable 28 yr old, too.

But, we don't have a comparable 28 yr old available this year. THerefore, I would take my chances on this 31 yr old, this year.

We can either wait another year or two or five until the "perfect" 28 yr old FA comes around again, and hope that he wants to be an Oriole too, or we can go all out to try and sign Soriano (and others) to help Miggy and the Orioles compete.

IMO, we must either overpay to sign Soriano and Matsuzaka (or Schmidt/Zito) or we must blow it all up and trade Miggy, Ramon, Mora....

Spinning our wheels by signing a Suppan and an Alou do nothing for us.