The BRob Effect

[webbrick2010]

I did not see the play or the steal of 2B that preceeded it. However, I will observe that for BRob, stealing 3B has been a very successful proposition in his career. BRob has a 77% success rate stealing 2B, but an 89% success rate stealing 3B. Therefore, the fact that the play was very close at 2B, or that 3B is an easier throw for a catcher, doesn't tell me that BRob should have thought that stealing 3B was a bad risk. And as I already posted, stealing 3B with one out puts a runner in position to score multiple ways without the need for a base hit, so I don't think the fact that he was already in scoring position makes it a bad play, either.

The part that bothers me more (again, I didn't see the play or what preceded it) are the reports that Lackey had already thrown to 2B and taken steps to prevent BRob from getting a good jump. BRob certainly should have factored that in.

In any event, even if he made a bad decision to run (based on the jump he was getting), I take issue with the poster who described the attempt as "selfish." I don't think BRob is running to stroke his ego or pad his SB stats. He's trying to help the team. And obviously he didn't know Manny would hit a HR in that at bat.

I disagree, I think it was selfish. Brian let himself get caught up in a mano mano moment. He was dancing off second base and Lackey made several close pickoff thows to 2B. They were having quite the little personal battle and I think Brian got caught up in the moment. I'm sure once he settled down and thought about an attempted steal of third with the ML doubles leader at bat, and the ML HR leader on deck do up he probably felt foolish. To make it worse perhaps in the pregame meeting someone pointed out that Manny and Chris are both Lackey killers, don't know if players keep those things in mind but they should.

[Il BuonO]

I did not see the play or the steal of 2B that preceeded it. However, I will observe that for BRob, stealing 3B has been a very successful proposition in his career. BRob has a 77% success rate stealing 2B, but an 89% success rate stealing 3B. Therefore, the fact that the play was very close at 2B, or that 3B is an easier throw for a catcher, doesn't tell me that BRob should have thought that stealing 3B was a bad risk. And as I already posted, stealing 3B with one out puts a runner in position to score multiple ways without the need for a base hit, so I don't think the fact that he was already in scoring position makes it a bad play, either.

The part that bothers me more (again, I didn't see the play or what preceded it) are the reports that Lackey had already thrown to 2B and taken steps to prevent BRob from getting a good jump. BRob certainly should have factored that in.

In any event, even if he made a bad decision to run (based on the jump he was getting), I take issue with the poster who described the attempt as "selfish." I don't think BRob is running to stroke his ego or pad his SB stats. He's trying to help the team. And obviously he didn't know Manny would hit a HR in that at bat.

I don't believe that about Roberts at all. I do believe he got caught up in the moment last night. His career numbers are instructive in that Roberts even while he was the best of shape I don't believe had great speed. I don't want to blather on too much about my playing days but I was a lot like him. Didn't have great size and I actually had to develop my speed by working with the track team because I was considered slow for a middle IF(Later I moved to the OF), but I never had great speed. I had to rely on my knowledge of the pitchers and my instincts to steal a base.

I think Roberts success especially over his career and his success with stealing 3B as opposed to 2B is illustrated by this. He chooses the opportune times to run more often than not. Last night was not one of them.

[bpilktree]

I disagree, I think it was selfish. Brian let himself get caught up in a mano mano moment. He was dancing off second base and Lackey made several close pickoff thows to 2B. They were having quite the little personal battle and I think Brian got caught up in the moment. I'm sure once he settled down and thought about an attempted steal of third with the ML doubles leader at bat, and the ML HR leader on deck do up he probably felt foolish. To make it worse perhaps in the pregame meeting someone pointed out that Manny and Chris are both Lackey killers, don't know if players keep those things in mind but they should.

Yeah selfishness came into account he needed that extra steal to get a bigger paycheck. Brian was clearly trying to get into position to get to third and score on any ball in play nothing selfesh about that. The good base stealers and Brian was one in the past many times steal third based on pitch and location. The read the catcher and that helps them steal bases so he could have easily picked up that it was going to be the slider and a pitch in the dirt and easier to run on. The problem was that Lackey threw a hanger and gave Salty a great chance to get a quick and accurate throw from the location of the ball.

[webbrick2010]

Yeah selfishness came into account he needed that extra steal to get a bigger paycheck. Brian was clearly trying to get into position to get to third and score on any ball in play nothing selfesh about that. The good base stealers and Brian was one in the past many times steal third based on pitch and location. The read the catcher and that helps them steal bases so he could have easily picked up that it was going to be the slider and a pitch in the dirt and easier to run on. The problem was that Lackey threw a hanger and gave Salty a great chance to get a quick and accurate throw from the location of the ball.

Selfishness isn't just about trying to pad your statistics to increase your value, it is whenever you lose you composure causing you to make a rash not well thought out decision. I think Brian wanted to beat John Lackey (and his multiple pickoff attempts at 2B) so much that it clouded his judgement and he made a bad baseball decision. In addition Brian hasn't come to grips with how slow he now runs. He was out by a mile, his slide coming up a foot short of the bag. I was embarassed for him.

[Redskins Rick]

Selfishness isn't just about trying to pad your statistics to increase your value, it is whenever you lose you composure causing you to make a rash not well thought out decision. I think Brian wanted to beat John Lackey (and his multiple pickoff attempts at 2B) so much that it clouded his judgement and he made a bad baseball decision. In addition Brian hasn't come to grips with how slow he now runs. He was out by a mile, his slide coming up a foot short of the bag. I was embarassed for him.

How do we know Buck or Kirby order the steal?

[Il BuonO]

Yeah selfishness came into account he needed that extra steal to get a bigger paycheck. Brian was clearly trying to get into position to get to third and score on any ball in play nothing selfesh about that. The good base stealers and Brian was one in the past many times steal third based on pitch and location. The read the catcher and that helps them steal bases so he could have easily picked up that it was going to be the slider and a pitch in the dirt and easier to run on. The problem was that Lackey threw a hanger and gave Salty a great chance to get a quick and accurate throw from the location of the ball.

This is incorrect. If it's a breaking pitch it tends to give the runner more time not less. The pitch was a 92 mph FB right down the middle that Manny let go. Go back and watch it. A perfect pitch to throw on for the catcher.

[Il BuonO]

How do we know Buck or Kirby order the steal?

Wayne Kirby does not give out signs and it's highly unlikely Buck gave the steal sign for 3B. As far as I know, there are a few guys who typically have the "go" sign (Nate, Adam, BRob) and they go when they want unless Buck takes it off. Meaning they have his permission to go on their own unless he sends a sign to stay put.

[Redskins Rick]

First of all, I don't care if someone has one post or 30,000 posts. I respond to what is said. You said Roberts should have waited a couple of pitches if he ran at all. Speed? Roberts was never fast, even you acknowledge that. He stole bases on his great instincts. I guess you think those instincts are gone. If he had waited two pitches perhaps there would have been 2 outs and no sense in stealing 2nd base. He wanted to get there with one out. He chose which pitch to go on. I'll take a guy with his basestealing experience and success (89% at 3B/did not know that!) over you saying he should have waited. He got thrown out. It happens.

Jones has very good speed, and poor base stealing abilities.

Roberts is not a burner with speed, but has dang good ability to read the pitcher.

It didn't work. Buck has faith in B-Rob, or he wouldn't have the green light to go on his decision.

[Can_of_corn]

First of all, I don't care if someone has one post or 30,000 posts. I respond to what is said. You said Roberts should have waited a couple of pitches if he ran at all. Speed? Roberts was never fast, even you acknowledge that. He stole bases on his great instincts. I guess you think those instincts are gone. If he had waited two pitches perhaps there would have been 2 outs and no sense in stealing 2nd base. He wanted to get there with one out. He chose which pitch to go on. I'll take a guy with his basestealing experience and success (89% at 3B/did not know that!) over you saying he should have waited. He got thrown out. It happens.

Matt Wieters has more stolen bases and a much higher success rate then Roberts over the last two years.

I don't want Wieters running in that situation.

[jabba72]

I think Roberts picked a bad time to start running. He no longer looks like a SB threat. And was very close to being thrown out a 2B. It was a tie. 3B, Roberts was out by 6 feet.

[Il BuonO]

First of all, I don't care if someone has one post or 30,000 posts. I respond to what is said. You said Roberts should have waited a couple of pitches if he ran at all. Speed? Roberts was never fast, even you acknowledge that. He stole bases on his great instincts. I guess you think those instincts are gone. If he had waited two pitches perhaps there would have been 2 outs and no sense in stealing 2nd base. He wanted to get there with one out. He chose which pitch to go on. I'll take a guy with his basestealing experience and success (89% at 3B/did not know that!) over you saying he should have waited. He got thrown out. It happens.

If he had waited two pitches he would have scored on Manny's HR, but I'm sure you'll say we don't know that. I don't think his instincts are gone I think he ran at the wrong time. You seem to be the only one here not getting that. Even In your scenario, does Roberts score on a base hit from second? I'll say he does. It's not worth the risk especially when the pitcher has just thrown over twice and stepped off once and the second baseman has not gone away. They were well aware of the threat of him going. There was no surprise there. Continue to argue your point though. Roberts stolen base percentage for his career, right?

[Can_of_corn]

If he had waited two pitches he would have scored on Manny's HR, but I'm sure you'll say we don't know that. I don't think his instincts are gone I think he ran at the wrong time. You seem to be the only one here not getting that. Even In your scenario, does Roberts score on a base hit from second? I'll say he does. It's not worth the risk especially when the pitcher has just thrown over twice and stepped off once and the second baseman has not gone away. They were well aware of the threat of him going. There was no surprise there. Continue to argue your point though. Roberts stolen base percentage for his career, right?

Still lower then Wieters'.

[Redskins Rick]

I think Roberts picked a bad time to start running. He no longer looks like a SB threat. And was very close to being thrown out a 2B. It was a tie. 3B, Roberts was out by 6 feet.

It happens, Wieters nailed the guy going to 2nd so bad, he was barely halfway there, he stood up, turned around, started back to first and then just gave up.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Some of the arguments supporting Roberts here are quite frankly lacking imo. If Roberts has lost speed (which he clearly has), he's going to be less successful at stealing bases whether he has the same instincts he had in 2009 or not (it's laughable to think that's close to being true). Not to mention Roberts slid feet first instead of the head first slide he normally used in the past (probably to mitigate injury).

Not to mention the argument that he's more successful stealing third than second.... well duh.You better be more successful stealing third than second or you're gonna cost more runs.

I'm not saying Roberts should never steal, but the reality is he's probably going to be less successful (maybe a lot) and needs to do it judiciously. Roberts needs to realize it's not 2009 and re-assess his current abilities. If not, then somebody needs to do it for him before he costs us again. I'm pleasantly surprised with Roberts contribution on offense, but that was a dumb play on his part that was clearly driven by his ego ......whether he meant well or not.

[webbrick2010]

Some of the arguments supporting Roberts here are quite frankly lacking imo. If Roberts has lost speed (which he clearly has), he's going to be less successful at stealing bases whether he has the same instincts he had in 2009 or not (it's laughable to think that's close to being true). Not to mention Roberts slid feet first instead of the head first slide he normally used in the past (probably to mitigate injury).

Not to mention the argument that he's more successful stealing third than second.... well duh.You better be more successful stealing third than second or you're gonna cost more runs.

I'm not saying Roberts should never steal, but the reality is he's probably going to be less successful (maybe a lot) and needs to do it judiciously. Roberts needs to realize it's not 2009 and re-assess his current abilities. If not, then somebody needs to do it for him before he costs us again. I'm pleasantly surprised with Roberts contribution on offense, but that was a dumb play on his part that was clearly driven by his ego ......whether he meant well or not.

Thank You... I would call it his competative nature (not ego), and say he got caught in the moment and made a bad baseball decision.

Something you would hope you wouldn't see from a 13 year veteran.