The BRob Effect

[Frobby]

I'm not saying Roberts should never steal, but the reality is he's probably going to be less successful (maybe a lot) and needs to do it judiciously. Roberts needs to realize it's not 2009 and re-assess his current abilities. If not, then somebody needs to do it for him before he costs us again. I'm pleasantly surprised with Roberts contribution on offense, but that was a dumb play on his part that was clearly driven by his ego ......whether he meant well or not.

I'd say Roberts has reassessed his abilities, as reflected by the fact that he's only attempted 4 stolen bases all year. In his career he has attempted a steal on 15% of his opportunities, and this year he has attempted a steal on less than 7% of his opportunities. His CS yesterday was the first time he's been caught in 2013. So don't make it sound as if he's regularly been taking wild chances on the bases since he's been back.

As I said, I'm not going to comment on this specific play, since I did not see it. But I don't have a problem generally with BRob attempting a steal of 3B with one out and Machado at the plate with Davis up next in the early part of a game. It's only the specifics of whether he had a good enough lead and jump (which I didn't see) to go for it that concerns me.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'd say Roberts has reassessed his abilities, as reflected by the fact that he's only attempted 4 stolen bases all year. In his career he has attempted a steal on 15% of his opportunities, and this year he has attempted a steal on less than 7% of his opportunities. His CS yesterday was the first time he's been caught in 2013. So don't make it sound as if he's regularly been taking wild chances on the bases since he's been back.

As I said, I'm not going to comment on this specific play, since I did not see it. But I don't have a problem generally with BRob attempting a steal of 3B with one out and Machado at the plate with Davis up next in the early part of a game. It's only the specifics of whether he had a good enough lead and jump (which I didn't see) to go for it that concerns me.

I'd say that's you making an interpretation out of something I didn't say or imply. Unfortunately his limited success and little horseplay yesterday with Lackey may have caused him to believe he is getting his oats back. Based on what I saw of Brob yesterday and have seen to date, I think it's a bad idea to try that with the 2/3/4 hitters coming up with one out. I don't know what the break even threshold is for it, but I'd bet the current version of Brob is below it. Again, his career marks are fairly irrelevant.

I had a problem with it. We'll have to disagree on this one. Bad play imo.

[Dipper9]

I have intentionally stayed out of this thread because it really grates on my nerves. To claim that BRob is the reason for the losing over the years....I just cannot even respond coherently. I'll just say there are too many fans who take more pleasure in being right, or in running others down, and it really makes me sick.

I hope BRob is able to play in a playoff game for the Orioles, and I hope he can continue to play well and go out on a high note. I can't say I want him back next year, but if he is back, I won't be mad either.

[webbrick2010]

I have intentionally stayed out of this thread because it really grates on my nerves. To claim that BRob is the reason for the losing over the years....I just cannot even respond coherently. I'll just say there are too many fans who take more pleasure in being right, or in running others down, and it really makes me sick.

I hope BRob is able to play in a playoff game for the Orioles, and I hope he can continue to play well and go out on a high note. I can't say I want him back next year, but if he is back, I won't be mad either.

Hey dipper don't want to grate on your nerves and I know this thread is too long to read in it's entirety but you should know that it was always presented in a little tongue in cheek manner. I do not believe that Brian Roberts is responsible for the O's 14 seasons of losing ball or that he has had a big impact on this season (pos or neg). I do believe the BRob effect as I dubbed it is an unexplainable unstoppable phenomenon that is playing out again in 2013. More seriously I do believe playing BRob is a mistake because I think the O's are slightly better with Flaherty starting (very slightly) and it serves their better interest to give as him as full an assesment as possible this year.

[Can_of_corn]

You're a smart guy. This is one of your dumbest posts ever if you are serious.

I was trying to lead you to where you need to go.

Some data is garbage. Wieters' stolen base numbers are garbage.

Roberts' career percentage stealing third is garbage.

His stolen base numbers the last few years are so sparse that what he could do five years ago is no longer relevant.

By contrasting Roberts' numbers the last couple of years with Wieters' I was trying to show you that.

[webbrick2010]

I was trying to lead you to where you need to go.

Some data is garbage. Wieters' stolen base numbers are garbage.

Roberts' career percentage stealing third is garbage.

His stolen base numbers the last few years are so sparse that what he could do five years ago is no longer relevant.

By contrasting Roberts' numbers the last couple of years with Wieters' I was trying to show you that.

Well I thought it was very smart post... BRob's past statistics are irrelevant, he's just not that guy anymore.

[Dipper9]

Hey dipper don't want to grate on your nerves and I know this thread is too long to read in it's entirety but you should know that it was always presented in a little tongue in cheek manner. I do not believe that Brian Roberts is responsible for the O's 14 seasons of losing ball or that he has had a big impact on this season (pos or neg). I do believe the BRob effect as I dubbed it is an unexplainable unstoppable phenomenon that is playing out again in 2013. More seriously I do believe playing BRob is a mistake because I think the O's are slightly better with Flaherty starting (very slightly) and it serves their better interest to give as him as full an assesment as possible this year.

Thanks for the response and clarification. I should have read more than the OP.

[Redskins Rick]

Point taken. However, Roberts was still stealing bases through 2011 with a slightly lower number of chances takent but with the same old good success rate. Maybe he's lost half a step since 2011 but I don't think he's lost his instincts for running. A lot of people are assuming he can't steal bases anymore. Assuming doesn't make it so. I have little doubt that Roberts could steal 20-25 bases with a good success rate if he had the desire to.

Sometimes ages doesn't take your speed away, just the stamina about how long you can do it.

Darrell Green said at 42, he could still do a 4.2 40 yard dash, but just one and not thirty, like when he was 20.

[Frobby]

I'd say that's you making an interpretation out of something I didn't say or imply. Unfortunately his limited success and little horseplay yesterday with Lackey may have caused him to believe he is getting his oats back. Based on what I saw of Brob yesterday and have seen to date, I think it's a bad idea to try that with the 2/3/4 hitters coming up with one out. I don't know what the break even threshold is for it, but I'd bet the current version of Brob is below it. Again, his career marks are fairly irrelevant.

I had a problem with it. We'll have to disagree on this one. Bad play imo.

Roberts' career percentage stealing third is garbage.

His stolen base numbers the last few years are so sparse that what he could do five years ago is no longer relevant.

Well I thought it was very smart post... BRob's past statistics are irrelevant, he's just not that guy anymore.

My point in showing Roberts' old numbers was to dispel the idea that it is harder to steal 3B because it is a shorter throw for the catcher, that's all. Nobody could argue that Roberts has the same base stealing ability today that he had over most of his career. I still would trust his overall judgment and instincts about when to run and when not to (in general; I'm not talking about yesterday's play specifically).

[CA-ORIOLE]

My point in showing Roberts' old numbers was to dispel the idea that it is harder to steal 3B because it is a shorter throw for the catcher, that's all. Nobody could argue that Roberts has the same base stealing ability today that he had over most of his career. I still would trust his overall judgment and instincts about when to run and when not to (in general; I'm not talking about yesterday's play specifically).

That's fair. As you stated, aside from yesterday, he has used reasonable judgement/control thus far. Hopefully yesterday was just an aberration. I know you said you didn't see the play at third. It was a pretty pathetic.

[Il BuonO]

Yeah, guys never steal 2B after a pitcher makes a throw over to 1B.

When you can regularly predict what the next hitter in the lineup will do, let us all know so we can bow to you.

Right because that was the argument I was making. Lol, lets go back to yours. You know, where a guy with declining skills stealing 3B is somehow buoyed by his career numbers.

I'm sure Ruth was intimidating to all those pitchers he faced even after the Yankees got rid of him.

You have chosen to make this personal. I have in no way attacked Roberts personally, I even have said I've been surprised by his offensive performance this year. Apparently I'm supposed to bow down to your opinion though you haven't made much of an argument.

[auzzy98]

I seriously cannot believe there is a thread this long about brian roberts getting caught stealing. Was there a thread for the 6 times nate has gotten caught this year? Good grief! This is pathetic! Yeah Brian isn't as speedy as he once was, but as some others have said he was never really all that fast as it was, just very creative on the basepaths. He got a bad jump, he wasn't as far off the bag as he thought he was...whatever the reason, he got out...so what. It was one steal. Yea we could have used that extra run for sure, but it was not a bad decision. I also don't think it's about his ego. He wants to do anything he can to win ballgames right now. It never fails that if BRob does something questionable, he gets called out on here. Nobody mentioned the walk and 2 base hits he had last night.

[Can_of_corn]

I seriously cannot believe there is a thread this long about brian roberts getting caught stealing. Was there a thread for the 6 times nate has gotten caught this year? Good grief! This is pathetic! Yeah Brian isn't as speedy as he once was, but as some others have said he was never really all that fast as it was, just very creative on the basepaths. He got a bad jump, he wasn't as far off the bag as he thought he was...whatever the reason, he got out...so what. It was one steal. Yea we could have used that extra run for sure, but it was not a bad decision. I also don't think it's about his ego. He wants to do anything he can to win ballgames right now. It never fails that if BRob does something questionable, he gets called out on here. Nobody mentioned the walk and 2 base hits he had last night.

I seriously cannot believe that someone posted about this thread without even bothering to read the first post, you know, the one from the eight of July.

Just kidding, I can totally believe it.

[auzzy98]

I seriously cannot believe that someone posted about this thread without even bothering to read the first post, you know, the one from the eight of July.

Just kidding, I can totally believe it.

Oh i know this is a negative thread from way back, and i can believe the posts on here. It just gets ridiculous at times.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I seriously cannot believe there is a thread this long about brian roberts getting caught stealing. Was there a thread for the 6 times nate has gotten caught this year? Good grief! This is pathetic! Yeah Brian isn't as speedy as he once was, but as some others have said he was never really all that fast as it was, just very creative on the basepaths. He got a bad jump, he wasn't as far off the bag as he thought he was...whatever the reason, he got out...so what. It was one steal. Yea we could have used that extra run for sure, but it was not a bad decision. I also don't think it's about his ego. He wants to do anything he can to win ballgames right now. It never fails that if BRob does something questionable, he gets called out on here. Nobody mentioned the walk and 2 base hits he had last night.

1. The thread isn't solely about Brian Roberts stealing.

2. It was a bad decision.