Do you want JJ Hardy after 2014?

[Singleton]

Clint Barmes is 34.

Obviously, the better you were in your prime, the longer you can remain at SS. Hardy's been pretty elite defensively and I don't think it's a stretch to think he'll still be a starting SS at age 34.

Barmes doesn't do much to help your argument. He had a good year a couple of seasons ago and got a 3 year contract for it and has been pretty awful. He lost his starting job this year to the amazing J. Mercer (sarcasm). It's not a stretch to think Hardy can start at 34. The question is how much will his skills decline and would we be better off getting a good prospect or two in return and spending $10 mil per year elsewhere.

[DrungoHazewood]

There are only 2 starting shortstops over the age of 31 in the entire MLB: Jeter and Rollins. It could just be a random fact or it could be related to how hard it is to play the position after a certain age (note -- Rollins (34) is in pretty steep decline).

I think it's mostly random. Since the league expanded to 30 teams in 1998 the median number of age 31+ shortstops (min 100 games) is 5, with a high of 9 in 2002. There have been 34 seasons in history with at least five 31+, 100+ game shortstops.

On the other side, 1933 is the last year there were no shortstops that old. And 1986 was the last time there was just one (Ozzie).

[TradeAngelos]

Don't see what incentive there is for Hardy to sign a 2 year extension with only 1 yr left on deal. He could play it out and get almost double on the open market probably.

2 yr low cost extension would be GREAT for the O's, but I just don't see any reason for Hardy to go for it.

[calmunderfire]

Let him walk. Machado's bat will play up more at Shortstop.

[DrungoHazewood]

Let him walk. Machado's bat will play up more at Shortstop.

That's a nice theoretical construct you got there.

[luismatos4prez]

Let him walk. Machado's bat will play up more at Shortstop.

Who cares where Machado's bat plays up the best? We're trying to win games, not have the most valuable player.

We're a team with limited resources. You'd need to find a very good (3 WAR+) 3B in order to replace Hardy's production, even if Machado does end up being more valuable at SS.

We certainly don't have that 3B in our organization now. And there's no way Peter is going to shell out humongous contracts for Headley in the future.

[DrungoHazewood]

Who cares where Machado's bat plays up the best? We're trying to win games, not have the most valuable player.

We're a team with limited resources. You'd need to find a very good (3 WAR+) 3B in order to replace Hardy's production, even if Machado does end up being more valuable at SS.

We certainly don't have that 3B in our organization now. And there's no way Peter is going to shell out humongous contracts for Headley in the future.

Manny is currently a +30 third baseman. In other words, he's pretty much maxed out the scale. Nobody has ever been much better, and literally nobody has ever been consistently better by our current metrics.

So for him to be as valuable at shortstop he'd have to be something like a +25 defender there. In other words "unbelievably amazing minus five runs." Or in the vicinity of Mark Belanger or Ozzie or Brendan Ryan or Adam Everett's peak years. I think that's almost impossible to expect.

And as you mention, on top of that they have to go out and acquire a 2-3 win third baseman to make up for the loss of Hardy's production.

It's a very tall order to expect the O's to be better off moving Machado to short.

[Redskins Rick]

Manny is currently a +30 third baseman. In other words, he's pretty much maxed out the scale. Nobody has ever been much better, and literally nobody has ever been consistently better by our current metrics.

So for him to be as valuable at shortstop he'd have to be something like a +25 defender there. In other words "unbelievably amazing minus five runs." Or in the vicinity of Mark Belanger or Ozzie or Brendan Ryan or Adam Everett's peak years. I think that's almost impossible to expect.

And as you mention, on top of that they have to go out and acquire a 2-3 win third baseman to make up for the loss of Hardy's production.

It's a very tall order to expect the O's to be better off moving Machado to short.

Nice post, and I agree.

Keep Manny at 3rd and try and keep Hardy!!

[Singleton]

Manny is currently a +30 third baseman. In other words, he's pretty much maxed out the scale. Nobody has ever been much better, and literally nobody has ever been consistently better by our current metrics.

So for him to be as valuable at shortstop he'd have to be something like a +25 defender there. In other words "unbelievably amazing minus five runs." Or in the vicinity of Mark Belanger or Ozzie or Brendan Ryan or Adam Everett's peak years. I think that's almost impossible to expect.

And as you mention, on top of that they have to go out and acquire a 2-3 win third baseman to make up for the loss of Hardy's production.

It's a very tall order to expect the O's to be better off moving Machado to short.

Good analysis but I think you're sort of skipping over how this will likely play out. If we keep Hardy, there's a very good chance we'll either have to let him test the free agent market in a year or sign him for 3 or more years when he's almost certain to be unable to maintain his 2-3 win value and be overpaid.

I wouldn't suggest just dumping Hardy and kicking back on the couch and hope things work out. I would explore the trade market for Hardy in the offseason and also consider how we might use the money we wouldn't have to pay him.

I don't think it is unreasonable to think that between the players we get back in trade and the players we could acquire with the $8 mil or so in savings from not paying Hardy that we could get 2-3 wins or more next year and add more youth and payroll flexibility for the future. If we really want to be a team that contends for many years, we're going to have to get used to moving players before it's too late.

If it turns out that there's no market for Hardy or he's willing to sign a 1 year (maybe 2 year) extension at a reasonable amount -- then sure maybe keep him around and hope for the best. But I would bet that with the right moves we can do better in the short and long term.

[calmunderfire]

Also while Machado is basically maxing out the defensive scale over at 3B he does not have to play quite as well at SS due to positional value.

In addition, you can't just look at raw WAR when evaluating a player or a duo of players. By moving Manny to SS we would completely erase the need for offensive production at SS because he could easily cover that.

It's much easier to find offensive production at 3B these days than SS. Especially in the AL.

I think let Hardy walk because he is getting a little older and we don't want to overpay. Then look for a 3B with some power and OBP. Slide Machado over to SS and have him shade to the line a bit more in case you get a weak defending 3B.

[Ripken]

What is Schoop's best position? I definitely believe he'll be a plus player with the bat. If he can handle 2B you can keep JJ for a couple more seasons and have Flaherty as the util. With Manny and Davis staying where they are. I'm not worried about the IF. It's C and the OF I expect some real money spent the next two years (to keep players here and/or get new ones).

[DrungoHazewood]

Also while Machado is basically maxing out the defensive scale over at 3B he does not have to play quite as well at SS due to positional value.

In addition, you can't just look at raw WAR when evaluating a player or a duo of players. By moving Manny to SS we would completely erase the need for offensive production at SS because he could easily cover that.

It's much easier to find offensive production at 3B these days than SS. Especially in the AL.

I think let Hardy walk because he is getting a little older and we don't want to overpay. Then look for a 3B with some power and OBP. Slide Machado over to SS and have him shade to the line a bit more in case you get a weak defending 3B.

I'm not suggesting they have to keep Hardy. What I'm saying is that the fact that Machado appears to be the Next Brooks Robinson at third means that he'd have to be the Next Mark Belanger at short (or the O's would have to acquire a heck of a third baseman) to make shifting Machado to SS work out. I think that's quite unlikely. Let's say Manny turns out to be just an average MLB shortstop (which isn't that unlikely, and still a heck of a player). That means they're 2+ wins to the worse for chasing positional adjustment theory.

[Crazysilver03]

Also while Machado is basically maxing out the defensive scale over at 3B he does not have to play quite as well at SS due to positional value.

In addition, you can't just look at raw WAR when evaluating a player or a duo of players. By moving Manny to SS we would completely erase the need for offensive production at SS because he could easily cover that.

It's much easier to find offensive production at 3B these days than SS. Especially in the AL.

I think let Hardy walk because he is getting a little older and we don't want to overpay. Then look for a 3B with some power and OBP. Slide Machado over to SS and have him shade to the line a bit more in case you get a weak defending 3B.

And yet the Orioles couldn't find good production out of 3B (or 1B) for quite some time. Could Schoop take over 3B? Maybe.

What do you consider an overpay for Hardy? If he is willing to extend for 2/10-14, I don't see that as an overpay.

[Redskins Rick]

Let's take Hardy out of the equation.

Manny = best active 3rd and maybe best in a long long time.

They really need to think long and hard about keeping him there.

[Il BuonO]

Simple question. Hardy is under contract through 2014, and will be a free agent after that. We could keep him and leave Machado at 3B, we could let him go and move Manny to SS and find a new 3B, or we could let him go and find a new SS and leave Manny at 3B.

Hardy is 30 this season, and so would be 32 by 2015 if we re-signed him. He is still a very steady defender and has above average power for a SS. You know Buck loves the guy.

So what do you say -- does Hardy have a future with this team beyond next year?

The way you framed the question I answered no. I have always thought it would be an easy transition for JJ to 2B if MM were to move over to SS and Schoop were to man 3B which is a position most scouts see him playing. I don't think Flaherty hits enough to be an everyday IF at the ML level. It's purely speculative and he could say no, but I think he likes it here and would be willing to make the change.