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Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jonathan Schoop...would you do it?


weams

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Too much to give up for Miller, I still don't understand why the Cards would even want to trade him this early.

Otherwise, I would do Hardy, Rodriguez, Schoop, Matusz, & Wieters for Tavares, Miller, Wong, Martinez, & Molina. Simple in my mind, duh.

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Joking? :) I'm sure you would do that trade. So would I. Though no one within 100 miles of St Louis would.

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Funny thing is, I think Martinez is going to be the better pitcher out of he and Miller. He will start next year, and the guy has absolutely electric stuff.

Others disagree. I heard from some that Carlos Martinez may never get out of the pen because he lacks control of the strike zone. Of all the Cardinals prospects, Martinez is clearly at the bottom of my list. There's a HUGE difference in my mind regarding he and Miller. They are not interchangeable.

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If you don't trade from the farm system and if you don't trade ML players, then you have nothing left to trade!

I agree that Ed Rod, Schoop and Hardy is too much to give up for Shelby Miller, but take Schoop out and I'd do that deal. Shelby Miller is one of the best young pitchers in baseball--we can only hope that Ed Rod turns out to be that good.

I'm not against trading from the ML level or the farm system, but trading multiple pieces from each for one player is not a good use of limited resources.

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Others disagree. I heard from some that Carlos Martinez may never get out of the pen because he lacks control of the strike zone. Of all the Cardinals prospects, Martinez is clearly at the bottom of my list. There's a HUGE difference in my mind regarding he and Miller. They are not interchangeable.

They may disagree that he will stick as a starter, but every scout or evaluator who has spoken about him on SXM has said his ceiling is far higher than Miller's who isn't an Ace. I'd prefer the upside and if you think he'd cost less then that's an even bigger bonus.

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Others disagree. I heard from some that Carlos Martinez may never get out of the pen because he lacks control of the strike zone. Of all the Cardinals prospects, Martinez is clearly at the bottom of my list. There's a HUGE difference in my mind regarding he and Miller. They are not interchangeable.

He did not seem to lack control of the strikezone during the playoffs. Every time I saw him he was lights out, and in complete command of the strike zone. I know, SSS, but it was during prime time.

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My answer is no, and I am a guy who thinks that Hardy should be moved in the right deal. I am not high enough on Shelby Miller to give up that package for him. I would try to send the Cardinals Hardy for Lance Lynn and Kolten Wong. I am all about stockpiling good young players, not trading them.

I would also shop Weiters, JJ and Markakis. And I would be looking for good YOUNG players in return.

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... For now I don't think Hardy is someone that the Cards want. They want a young controllable SS.

I can't claim any unique insight into the Cardinals front office, but would offer the following thoughts:

The Cardinals want to significantly improve offense from the shortstop position without giving up too much on defense.

Pundits who claim the Cardinals are "desperate" for a new shortstop are probably overstating the case. Kozma played 72% of the innings at shortstop last season and the Cardinals led the NL in wins and fell 2 wins short of their 13th World Championship. In the past, Mozeliak has demonstrated the willingness to stick with the Cards he has rather than gambling on a risky trade. There's no question he's motivated to improve the team where reasonably possible but he won't sell the farm without a clear improvement overall.

Defensively, the Cards are sound. They tied Arizona for fewest errors last season and led the majors by a wide margin in double plays. The team lacks range overall and was near the bottom overall in defensive runs saved, but that wasn't the fault of the shortstops. Kozma and Descalso were 2nd and 3rd respectively on the team in DRS, with 8 and 4. The worst were Freese (-14) and Holliday (-13). Replacement of Beltran with Craig or Taveras should improve overall defense. Adams is developing into a good defensive first baseman, but Craig has a long term contract and has been the best "clutch" hitter in the league the last two seasons, so he'll play first if Taveras is in right.

The Cards have a "relative surplus" in pitchers, so it does make sense to deal from a position of strength to fill a critical need. However, you can never have too much good pitching, as illustrated by the Cardinals using 25 different pitchers and 10 different starters in 2013. Chris Carpenter and Motte were lost before the season began. After leading the NL in ERA early, Westbrook went on the DL and was never worth much when he returned. Garcia began like a house afire but finally had to give in and have surgery on his ailing shoulder. John Gast came up and was a passable fill-in, then had to have TJ surgery. Tyler Lyons came up and made a couple of excellent starts, but tailed off rapidly afterward. Eventually, it was Joe Kelly who came in from the bullpen and Michael Wacha late who filled the gap. In 15 starts, Kelly was 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA. Wacha was 3-1 with a 2.83 in his 9 regular season starts and you saw what he did in the post season.

Jaime Garcia is fully recovered from a torn labrum repair and may return to his prior form in 2014. Prior to his injury, Garcia's "stuff" was rated the "nastiest" on a very deep and talented staff. Motte should be recovered from his TJ surgery but probably won't win back his closer job before 2015, if then.

Rosenthal is a valid starting pitcher candidate but the Cards have said he's needed too much as a closer in 2014. Carlos Martinez might have the highest ceiling on the team, but he took over the setup role in the late season. Kevin Siegrist is a left handed fireballer with great minor league starting credentials. Seth Maness is a control pitcher who led the majors in double plays coming out of the bullpen.

In addition to the above, the Cards still have several good pitching prospects in the system, even though they don't crack the Baseball America top 100. Tyrell Jenkins (#5) is coming off shoulder surgery but could have a fine 2014 season. Marco Gonzales (#8), Zach Petrick (#9), Lee Stoppelman (#12), Tim Cooney (#13), and Alex Reyes (#15). Jordan Swagerty (#19) was ranked much higher before his TJ surgery in 2012 and should be back in 2014.

The Cardinals depth in young, home grown players on the active 2013 roster means there will be relatively few players departing and even fewer offered new contracts.

Why wouldn't STL just offer TEX, Miller for Andrus?

It takes two to tango. I've not heard anywhere that Texas is amenable to a trade.

Too much to give up for Miller, I still don't understand why the Cards would even want to trade him this early.

There are a couple reasons they might consider trading Miller:

(1) Wacha has moved past him on the depth chart.

(2) Many think that Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal have higher upside.

(3) Miller had some maturity issues in the minors. In 2011, he was suspended at Springfield (AA) after a couple of alcohol related incidents. In 2012, he reported to spring training having lost significant body mass on a diet not approved by Cardinals trainers. However,

  • Miller was a #1 draft choice and the top ranked Cardinals prospect through most of his minor league career.
  • In spring training last season, Miller beat out Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal for the #5 rotation slot.
  • He finished 3rd in ROY balloting with 15 wins, a 3.06 ERA and an 8.8 K/9 ratio (tied with Lynn among starters).
  • I've not heard any reports of continued immaturity in 2013. He did pitch a lot of innings (173-1/3) and may have worn down late in the season. That probably explains his absense in the post season. He was on the roster in case the Cards ended up in an extended extra innings contest and Edward Mujica was on the roster in case the Cards needed a fallback closer. Neither situation came up, so neither pitched.

I'm sure the Cardinals would love JJ Hardy for 2014, as he represents a significant upgrade on offense and defense. However, they're unlikely to sell the farm for a player who would only be under team control for 1 season when they have other viable options, to include standing pat.

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