Analyzing the NL

[Rob H]

Just as a quick little reference piece, I'm gonna run down the contenders (or teams with GMs delusional enough to think they are contenders) in the NL. We'll start off this tour in the NL East, the cover the Central, then the West. I'll be covering their likely starting lineup and pitchers, and any other available players or prospects of note. Not all of this information will be accurate once the season begins, but to the best of my understanding, this is how it's set up going into spring training. At the end of each team, I'll give my analysis as far as trading for Bedard and/or Roberts.

Atlanta Braves:

C - Brian McCann

1B - Mark Teixeira

2B - Kelly Johnson

SS - Yunel Escobar

3B - Chipper Jones

LF - Matt Diaz

CF - Mark Kotsay

RF - Jeff Francoeur

SP1 - John Smoltz

SP2 - Tom Glavine

SP3 - Tim Hudson

SP4 - Chuck James

SP5 - Mike Hampton

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, Mike Gonzalez, Will Ohman

Other players of note:

Omar Infante, Scott Thorman, Jair Jurrjens, Jo-Jo Reyes

Prospects of note:

Jordan Schafer, Brent Lillibridge

Analysis:

They don't really have much of a use for Roberts, and they don't have the money or prospects left over to trade for Bedard.

New York Mets:

C - Brian Schnieder

1B - Carlos Delgado

2B - Luis Castillo

SS - Jose Reyes

3B - David Wright

LF - Moises Alou

CF - Carlos Beltran

RF - Ryan Church

SP1 - Pedro Martinez

SP2 - John Maine

SP3 - Oliver Perez

SP4 - Orlando Hernandez

SP5 - Mike Pelfry

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Matt Wise, Duaner Sanchez, Jorge Sosa

Other players of note:

Endy Chavez, Carlos Gomez

Prospects of note:

Phillip Humber, Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey

Analysis:

Fresh off signing Castillo to a four year pact, they wont be trading for Roberts. They could use Bedard though, and they could afford him (in terms of prospects and what it would cost to extend him). I wouldn't expect to see anything happen there until the Santana situation is resolved, though.

Philadelphia Phillies:

C - Carlos Ruiz

1B - Ryan Howard

2B - Chase Utley

SS - Jimmy Rollins

3B - Greg Dobbs

LF - Pat Burrell

CF - Shane Victorino

RF - Geoff Jenkins

SP1 - Cole Hamels

SP2 - Brett Myers

SP3 - Kyle Kendrick

SP4 - Jamie Moyer

SP5 - Adam Eaton

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Brad Lidge, Tom Gordon, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson

Other players of note:

So Taguchi, Jayson Werth, Wes Helms, Eric Bruntlett

Prospects of note:

Carlos Carrasco

Analysis:

With Chase Utley at 2B, Roberts would actually be a substantial downgrade for them (don't get to say that often). And while they need Bedard as much as anybody on this list, they absolutely do not have the pieces to trade for him.

Houston Astros:

C - J.R. Towles

1B - Lance Berkman

2B - Kaz Matsui

SS - Miguel Tejada

3B - Ty Wigginton

LF - Carlos Lee

CF - Michael Bourn

RF - Hunter Pence

SP1 - Roy Oswalt

SP2 - Wandy Rodriguez

SP3 - Brandon Backe

SP4 - Woody Williams

SP5 - Felipe Paulino

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail

Other players of note:

Darin Erstad, Brad Ausmus, Mark Loretta

Prospects of note:

None to speak of

Analysis:

I wasn't even going to put them on this list, but then I remembered that Ed Wade thinks they are contenders. Again, with that pitching they could use all the help they can get, but they can't afford Bedard.

Milwaukee Brewers:

C - Jason Kendall

1B - Prince Fielder

2B - Rickie Weeks

SS - J. J. Hardy

3B - Bill Hall

LF - Ryan Braun

CF - Mike Cameron

RF - Corey Hart

SP1 - Ben Sheets

SP2 - Yovanni Gallardo

SP3 - Jeff Suppan

SP4 - Dave Bush

SP5 - Carlos Villanueva

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Eric Gagne, Derrick Turnbow, David Riske, Salomon Torres

Other players of note:

Craig Counsel, Tony Gwynn Jr., Chris Capuano, Claudio Vargas

Prospects of note:

Manny Parra

Analysis:

They've certainly got the talent to make a run at Bedard, but they're currently counting on all of those players for next season. And I doubt Manny Parra plus a couple of their spare mediocre starters is enough to get it done. Not only that, but their budget is shot for the offseason.

St. Louis Cardinals:

C - Yadier Molina

1B - Albert Pujols

2B - Adam Kennedy

SS - Cesar Izturis

3B - Troy Glaus

LF - Chris Duncan

CF - Skip Schumaker

RF - Rick Ankiel

SP1 - Adam Wainright

SP2 - Braden Looper

SP3 - Joel Pineiro

SP4 - Anthony Reyes

SP5 - Brad Thompson

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Jason Isringhausen, Ryan Franklin

Other players of note:

Matt Clement, Brendan Ryan, Aaron Miles

Prospects of note:

Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia, Bryan Anderson, Chris Perez

Analysis:

The repeated calls to try to get Rasmus from the Cardinals was actually the impetus for me to make this list. Even With Roberts and Bedard, the Cardinals wont be contending with the Cubs and Brewers. It's not gonna happen.

Chicago Cubs:

C - Geovany Soto

1B - Derrek Lee

2B - Mark DeRosa

SS - Ryan Theriot

3B - Aramis Ramirez

LF - Alfonso Soriano

CF - Felix Pie

RF - Kosuke Fukudome

SP1 - Carlos Zambrano

SP2 - Ted Lilly

SP3 - Rich Hill

SP4 - Jason Marquis

SP5 - Jon Lieber

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Bob Howry, Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, Michael Wuertz, Scott Eyre

Other players of note:

Ryan Dempster, Sean Marshall, Darlye Ward, Ronny Cedeno, Matt Murton

Prospects of note:

Sean Gallagher, Donald Veal, Tyler Colvin, Eric Patterson

Analysis:

This one has been analyzed to death. Trading for Roberts almost makes sense, but there would be no sense in trading for Bedard if the Cubs have to give up Hill. Do the Cubs have the pieces to get both of them while making Pie the centerpiece to the deal? I don't know. If I were Hendry, I'd be concentrating on Bedard rather than Roberts, though.

Cincinnati Reds:

C - David Ross

1B - Joey Votto

2B - Brandon Phillips

SS - Alex Gonzalez

3B - Edwin Encarnacion

LF - Adam Dunn

CF - Ryan Freel

RF - Ken Griffey Jr.

SP1 - Aaron Harang

SP2 - Bronson Arroyo

SP3 - Homer Bailey

SP4 - Edison Volquez

SP5 - Matt Belisle

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Francisco Cordero, David Weathers

Other players of note:

Jeff Keppinger, Scott Hatteberg, Javier Valentin, Norris Hopper

Prospects of note:

Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Drew Stubbs

Analysis:

Above average offense, but putrid pitching and abysmal defense. Bedard would make a lot of sense. Unfortunately, like the Brewers, they're already relying on the guys that you would want back in a trade. And those that aren't already (Bruce, Cueto), are likely to be in that situation by mid-June. That might not have stopped crazy Wayne Krivsky, as he would have seen the 3-4 game improvement. But with Walt Jocketty taking over as Krivsky's boss, Bruce isn't going anywhere, and you'll be hard pressed to grab more than Votto and one of Cueto/Bailey and a mid-tier prospect. Is that enough?

Arizona Diamondbacks:

C - Chris Snyder

1B - Connor Jackson

2B - Orlando Hudson

SS - Steven Drew

3B - Mark Reynolds

LF - Eric Byrnes

CF - Chris Young

RF - Justin Upton

SP1 - Brandon Webb

SP2 - Dan Haren

SP3 - Doug Davis

SP4 - Micah Owings

SP5 - Randy Johnson

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, Juan Cruz

Other players of note:

Miguel Montero, Chris Burke

Prospects of note:

None left

Analysis:

No real use for Roberts, and not enough pieces to go after Bedard.

Los Angeles Dodgers:

C - Russell Martin

1B - James Loney

2B - Jeff Kent

SS - Rafael Furcal

3B - Nomar Garciaparra

LF - Juan Pierre

CF - Andruw Jones

RF - Matt Kemp

SP1 - Brad Penny

SP2 - Derrick Lowe

SP3 - Chad Billingsley

SP4 - Hideki Kuroda

SP5 - Jason Schmidt

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Takashi Saito, Joe Beimel, Jonathan Broxton

Other players of note:

Esteban Loaiza, Andre Ethier

Prospects of note:

Too many to list... but including LaRoche, Hu, Kershaw, Elbert, Meloan, and others

Analysis:

The ageless Jeff Kent is still a force at 2B, so a Roberts trade is out. They have enough pieces to go after Bedard, but their starting rotation is already six deep. Of the NL teams with the pieces to make deadline deals though, LA is the cream of the crop. If they're down to 3 solid SP in June, expect them to pull the trigger on Bedard.

San Diego Padres:

C - Josh Bard

1B - Adrian Gonzalez

2B - Tadahito Iguchi

SS - Khalil Greene

3B - Kevin Kouzmanoff

LF - Scott Hairston

CF - Jim Edmonds

RF - Brian Giles

SP1 - Jake Peavy

SP2 - Chris Young

SP3 - Greg Maddux

SP4 - Randy Wolf

SP5 - Mark Prior

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Clay Hensley

Other players of note:

Michael Barrett

Prospects of note:

Chase Headley, Matt Antonelli

Analysis:

I keep forgetting they've already got Iguchi at 2B for this season. Bedard would make a lot of sense on this staff, but Headley and Antonelli isn't enough to get it done, and they don't have much else in the minors. They'd need a 3rd team to get this done.

Colorado Rockies:

C - Yorvit Torrealba

1B - Todd Helton

2B - Jayson Nix

SS - Troy Tulowitzki

3B - Garrett Atkins

LF - Matt Holliday

CF - Wily Taveras

RF - Brad Hawpe

SP1 - Jeff Francis

SP2 - Aaron Cook

SP3 - Ubaldo Jimenez

SP4 - Franklin Morales

SP5 - Kip Wells

Notable bullpen pitchers:

Manny Corpas, Brian Fuentes, Taylor Buchholz, Luis Vizcaino

Other players of note:

Mark Redman, Jason Hirsh, Jeff Baker, Marcus Giles, Ryan Spilborghs, Chris Ianetta

Prospects of note:

Another long list... includes the likes of Stewart, Fowler, and others.

Analysis:

Between Jayson Nix, Omar Quintanilla, Ian Stewart, and Marcus Giles, they're likely to find somebody who can handle 2B for the season. I wouldn't expect them to try to trade for Roberts unless they haven't gotten the situation sorted out by mid-season. Bedard is unlikely due to the dangers of grabbing a curveball pitcher to try to operate at that altitude, but it's not impossible.

[skiba7]

Why not take it a step further and predict the what will happen in 2008, both in the divisions and playoffs?

[Rob H]

Why not take it a step further and predict the what will happen in 2008, both in the divisions and playoffs?

And what exactly did I say that sounded unreasonable?

[skiba7]

And what exactly did I say that sounded unreasonable?

What? I wasn't implying that anything sounded unreasonable. I just thought it would be interesting to see your predictions for 2008.

[Baltimoron]

And what exactly did I say that sounded unreasonable?

That Chris Carpenter won't be one of the cards top 5 starters?

Just kidding. Your post is awesome.

[Rob H]

What? I wasn't implying that anything sounded unreasonable. I just thought it would be interesting to see your predictions for 2008.

Sorry, I thought it was sarcasm. And I couldn't figure out for the life of me why somebody would think the Marlins, Nationals, Pirates, or Giants should have been included on that list...

Oh, and Chris Carpenter is out for the year after getting TJ.

Edit:

Oh yeah, I almost forgot. I don't make predictions because I don't want to jinx anything. I'm willing to say that the Cubs and Brewers are the top 2 in the Central, the Mets should be the top in the East, and the West could have any of those teams come out on top... but I'm not about to make any predictions.

[Baltimoron]

Oh, and Chris Carpenter is out for the year after getting TJ.

ORLY

From the article:

Carpenter had surgery in May to remove bone spurs. He was on a rehab assignment with Class A Palm Beach when he developed swelling and stiffness, and had elbow surgery on July 24.

The operation usually requires 10 to 12 months of rehabilitation.

There's no rigid timetable for when Carpenter will return to the rotation, but he probably won't be back until the all-star break.

[Rob H]

ORLY

From the article:

Last I'd heard, he wasn't expected to play at all... though I can't remember when or where I had heard that.

Either way, he still wont add much value, if he adds any at all.

[skiba7]

Oh yeah, I almost forgot. I don't make predictions because I don't want to jinx anything. I'm willing to say that the Cubs and Brewers are the top 2 in the Central, the Mets should be the top in the East, and the West could have any of those teams come out on top... but I'm not about to make any predictions.

I'm a Cubs fan who just found this site last month, so I'm not fmailiar with all the posters yet. You sound like a fan of an NL team. I know davearm is a Cubs fan, what about you?

[Rob H]

I'm a Cubs fan who just found this site last month, so I'm not fmailiar with all the posters yet. You sound like a fan of an NL team. I know davearm is a Cubs fan, what about you?

Indeed I am. Just joined up 2 weeks before yourself.

[Baltimoron]

Either way, he still wont add much value, if he adds any at all.

Seriously? Carpenter was a really good pitcher before the injury, and this is what you predicted the Cardinals rotation would be:

SP1 - Adam Wainright

SP2 - Braden Looper

SP3 - Joel Pineiro

SP4 - Anthony Reyes

SP5 - Brad Thompson

[Migrant Redbird]

Last I'd heard, he wasn't expected to play at all... though I can't remember when or where I had heard that.

There are Cards fans, fed up with too many optimistic medical reports on injured players, who believe exactly that -- neither Carpenter nor Mulder will pitch in 2008.

I'm agnostic. The sources references I've read say 85% to 90% success rate and about 12 months to recover more or less fully. I'm not optimistic, but I'm prepared to wait and see. Show me.

Either way, he still wont add much value, if he adds any at all.

More likely than not, too little, too late. If neither the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds decide they want it and both Carpenter and Mulder come back effective, we'd have a shot. It would take quite a bit of luck, and we probably used up our quota in the 2006 post season.

[Rob H]

There are Cards fans, fed up with too many optimistic medical reports on injured players, who believe exactly that -- neither Carpenter nor Mulder will pitch in 2008.

I'm agnostic. The sources references I've read say 85% to 90% success rate and about 12 months to recover more or less fully. I'm not optimistic, but I'm prepared to wait and see. Show me.

It's less fully than more fully. As a man who's watched quite a few guys trying to come back from TJ, at the one year mark most are around 80% effectiveness. That'd be nice from Carp, but it's not much more than you're likely to get from a guy like Reyes.

Mulder is just plain toast. And I feel kinda bad about it too, since it was obvious even at the time that you traded for him, that he just didn't have much left in the tank. I remember cleaning up on a bet with my friend that Haren would be better than Mulder in the two years after that trade... and that doesn't even include the rest of that package.

More likely than not, too little, too late. If neither the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds decide they want it and both Carpenter and Mulder come back effective, we'd have a shot. It would take quite a bit of luck, and we probably used up our quota in the 2006 post season.

I think you used that up and then some.

[Migrant Redbird]

... it was obvious even at the time that you traded for him, that he just didn't have much left in the tank...

Are you suggesting that Walt Jocketty didn't do his due diligence on that trade?

I recall at least one Cardinals fan who theorized at the time that trade went down that Mulder's 2nd half slide was the result of an injury. Mulder has since appeared to confirm that his injury goes back that far, although he claims that it didn't hurt and he didn't recognize it as an injury -- believing it to just be an issue of working out his mechanics.

[davearm]

The Cards kicked butt and went to the WS twice (winning once) while the Cubs were floundering around with injuries to key players (Wood, Prior, and DLee) and junk in their place.

Now it's the Cardinals' turn. Carpenter, Mulder, and perhaps Pujols. Hello 90 losses.