Roch's Take

[RShack]

but I would like to move someone of value out of the pen if we are bringing Sherill in with the EB deal.

But we don't *have* any excess value in the BP to move out. The BP is like Hiroshima the day after.

It's Walker, Bradford, and um, Nobody. We need *more* BP guys, we don't need to be getting rid of them.

Talking about moving guys out of the BP is kinda like saying we should get rid of our big excess of cleanup-hitters.

[Roll Tide]

But we don't *have* any excess value in the BP to move out. The BP is like Hiroshima the day after.

It's Walker, Bradford, and um, Nobody. We need *more* BP guys, we don't need to be getting rid of them.

Talking about moving guys out of the BP is kinda like saying we should get rid of our big excess of cleanup-hitters.

Nobody thats proven ... But Sarfate , Hoey , Burres , Aquino & the rest ... We might as well find out now whether these guys can especially the ones that are in there late 20's .. And we need a spot for Bierd right?

[RShack]

Nobody thats proven ... But Sarfate , Hoey , Burres , Aquino & the rest ... We might as well find out now whether these guys can especially the ones that are in there late 20's .. And we need a spot for Bierd right?

The important idea to grok is that it's not an either-or question. Of the many things that makes AM's job hard is that he's gotta do both. He's gotta set things up so that there's room for some unproven guys to pitch from the BP (so they can become proven guys) without putting DT in the position of watching kids blow up games night after night. It's a matter of creating a good *balance*. It's not useful to look at it like it's all-or-nothing. All-or-nothing is a great way to create a disaster. There's a huge diff between accepting that things won't be great in '08 vs. creating a major freakin' disaster. For each of the last few seasons, there's always been some big disaster. AM and DT are trying to put a stop to that little streak. It's one thing to give some kid-pitchers a chance, but that's different from creating disasters. Even with some decent vets in the BP, it's still gonna be a rocky road.

[Stotle]

But we don't *have* any excess value in the BP to move out. The BP is like Hiroshima the day after.

It's Walker, Bradford, and um, Nobody. We need *more* BP guys, we don't need to be getting rid of them.

Talking about moving guys out of the BP is kinda like saying we should get rid of our big excess of cleanup-hitters.

Bierd, Walker, Bradford are musts, I assume.

Hoey and McCrory have little to prove at AAA, but I guess if you want to keep them there fine. At some point you have to just let them pitch.

Aquino was brought aboard for a reason. I'm assuming it's because he has ML experience, closer experience and AM thinks he can contribute in the pen.

Sarfate is the third reliever BA ranks in our top 20 or 22 (I don't remember specifically). I think it makes sense to give him a shot.

Burres was much better out of the pen than he was starting last year. Left handed -- I say he should be there.

I don't think Patton, Albers or Olson have anything left to prove at AAA, either. Whoever doesn't make the rotation should be broken in by bullpen. It worked for Santana and Liriano (and last year Chamberlain).

BAL has pleanty of arms. The idea that you need someone with "experience" doesn't hold water for me. Every season there are experienced arms that have atrocious seasons and rookie arms that are lights out. There are veterans who dominate after a season or more of poor performances and there are failed starters that find a niche in relief.

There are limited avenues for aquiring young talent -- relief pitching can be gotten in almost any transaction imaginable. I don't see why you waste one of your return items in a Bedard deal on a 30 year old pitcher who has thrown around 50 innings of dominant ball at the ML level for his entire career.

I repeat Chen/Martinez/DeJesus address more pressing needs in the BAL organization and are less important to SEA right now than Sherrill. If there isn't a greater plan (now or in the reasonably near future) built around Sherrill, why aren't we asking for a MI with solid upside? Sherrills 130 innings over the next 3 seasons are worth that much? Their worth more than a possible heir to Roberts or solution at SS? Respectfully, I just don't see it.

[Migrant Redbird]

But we don't *have* any excess value in the BP to move out. The BP is like Hiroshima the day after.

It's Walker, Bradford, and um, Nobody. We need *more* BP guys, we don't need to be getting rid of them.

If they're dealing Bedard for prospects and looking towards 2009 and later, it makes no sense to keep relief pitchers solely to have an effective bullpen for 2008. There are dozens of free agents available for mop up duty when you're not developing young relievers. If there's someone in the bullpen who could bring in a useful prospect, why would you declare him off limits?

This presumes, of course, that the "blow it up" philosophy really has been adopted heart and soul. Trying to peddle Top Five starters while hanging onto interchangeable bullpen building blocks doesn't make any sense to me.

Talking about moving guys out of the BP is kinda like saying we should get rid of our big excess of cleanup-hitters.

That's the real issue: Not whether you should be willing to trade these guys, but whether you can get anything worthwhile back for them. A bullpen can be reconstructed faster than anything else on a team except for a bench. The front end of your rotation and the top two thirds of your batting order -- now that is a different story.

[El Gordo]

I happen to agree with you. I think the main reason the O's want Sherrill is to reinforce the bullpen, not some grand design to flip him. I'm still ok with him in the deal though, because he'll still have value either as a player for 3 years here or as a possible trade chip down the road. Sherrill shows me that the O's aren't in complete blow it up mode. They want to rebuild but be semi-respectable this season.

And I see nothing wrong with that idea. I still say a solid bullpen is useful in developing young SP.

[Sports Guy]

I happen to agree with you. I think the main reason the O's want Sherrill is to reinforce the bullpen, not some grand design to flip him. I'm still ok with him in the deal though, because he'll still have value either as a player for 3 years here or as a possible trade chip down the road. Sherrill shows me that the O's aren't in complete blow it up mode. They want to rebuild but be semi-respectable this season.

I go either way on this subject.

We have heard the importance him and DT are placing on the pen this year.

I think they would make Sherrill their closer.

However, they could also be thinking to flip him....It is a creative way of upping the ante on what you get back for Bedard.

GMs are stupid...They see a big number under the "S" column and they get all giddy.

We could end up flipping Sherrill elsewhere and end up with a top prospect or 2 either in July or next offseason.

Now, what is AM going to do? I have no idea...i really could see either.

I hope he flips him elsewhere.

[Art Wing]

BAL has pleanty of arms. The idea that you need someone with "experience" doesn't hold water for me. Every season there are experienced arms that have atrocious seasons and rookie arms that are lights out. There are veterans who dominate after a season or more of poor performances and there are failed starters that find a niche in relief.

Well put. I very much agree with this part of your argument.

[hoosiers]

Absolutely. Generally, I view RP as an overvalued commodity in the game right now. Outside of the handful of truly special arms out there, seldom do I think it's a good idea to trade for a guy after a terrific season, and I almost always think it's a good idea to try and move an arm after a truly outstanding season. I'm also for holding onto the "decent" arm in a contract year to get the picks (SD and MIL have done this effectively, I believe).

I think rp is undervalued - especially as more and more of these guys generate multi-$M, multi-year deals.

If you move an arm after an outstanding season, how do you expect to put together a bp?

[Stotle]

I think rp is undervalued - especially as more and more of these guys generate multi-$M, multi-year deals.

If you move an arm after an outstanding season, how do you expect to put together a bp?

You don't need consistency in your BP from the same players year-in and year-out. I'm not saying SD should move six of their guys since they had good years. I am saying if you can find someone who is willing to give up talent for your RP, more often than not you should make the deal because the BP arm is easy to replace. Ideally, I think you have one or two "special" arms that you hope to hold onto long term (this would most likely be what managers describe as a closer and set-up man, though I don't like those "roles"). You have around 2 young arms you hope to groom into your closer/set-up man. You have a long man (either a young arm you're breaking into the bigs, or a journeyman that can be serviceable and chew up innings). And you fill the last couple of spots either with young arms you want to break in (if you have that many available) or you rely on scouting out players with skill sets that should play well in relief but are currently undervalued (due to poor performance last year, no opportunity to play or converting a failed starter).

If one of those players (primarily veterans) drastically overperform, I think you entertain trading them. If you stand to get a comp pick, you let them walk. It takes some work, but it's a good opportunity to accumulate draft picks or use for trade value, as tons of GMs still rely a ton on pure statistical analysis (which is difficult to do correctly with such a volatile position often producing small sample sizes).

Just my thoughts; sorry for the wordiness.

[odogs101]

One of the big points in the infamous Moneyball is the value of a closer.

the book takes the position that most of the time the closer is an overrated position by most of baseball. The idea is to take a quality reliever and let him close and build up the save stats and then trade him for more valuable young pieces.

Rinse repeat.

If we make Sherrill our closer this year and he does not work out, no big deal he is still a valuable lefty RP.

But if he succeeds, than his value would probably double and next offseason he could very much be viewed as a luxury considering we still have Hoey, McCrory, and ray coming back from surgery.

I think the best situation would be to let him close this year and gamble that next offseason we have a much more valuable trading chip.

[Stotle]

One of the big points in the infamous Moneyball is the value of a closer.

the book takes the position that most of the time the closer is an overrated position by most of baseball. The idea is to take a quality reliever and let him close and build up the save stats and then trade him for more valuable young pieces.

Rinse repeat.

If we make Sherrill our closer this year and he does not work out, no big deal he is still a valuable lefty RP.

But if he succeeds, than his value would probably double and next offseason he could very much be viewed as a luxury considering we still have Hoey, McCrory, and ray coming back from surgery.

I think the best situation would be to let him close this year and gamble that next offseason we have a much more valuable trading chip.

Absolutely. If you are set on keeping Sherrill and moving no one, that would be the best option. I'm not sure BAL couldn't put Sarfate/Bierd/McCrory/Hoey in the closer role and do the same thing, though. I'd have to wait until ST to see how everyone looks.

Sherrill has decent value for SEA right now, making him a decent piece in the deal (from SEA side). My point is that there are better options for BAL than Sherrill, since most of the positives he brings could be solved (in my opinion) in house or through moving other players BAL doesn't want (Mora, for example).

Good post -- great view on the value of the "closer" role.

[RShack]

I happen to agree with you. I think the main reason the O's want Sherrill is to reinforce the bullpen, not some grand design to flip him. I'm still ok with him in the deal though, because he'll still have value either as a player for 3 years here or as a possible trade chip down the road. Sherrill shows me that the O's aren't in complete blow it up mode. They want to rebuild but be semi-respectable this season.

And thank God for that. Doing that is a big part of rebuilding properly. There's nothing good about having a bunch of kids get thrown into the big leagues and getting their brains beat out with nobody to help. What you want to do is create an environment where guys can get better without having major disasters happening three or four times per week.

For reasons I do not understand at all, some folks *like* the idea of "complete blow it up mode". IMO, that's completely insane. Walk-single-walk-dinger. How does that help anything? All it does is make everybody want to blow their brains out. Do it that way, and you make everybody terrified of the 8th inning. That's a crazy thing to do. If you do that, then by August everybody's hanging their head and looking like a puppy that's just been beaten hard with a big stick. Everybody. Both the team and the fans. There's nothing good about that. Absolutely nothing. A big important part of Step One is putting a stop to having big calamities every other game.

[ChaosLex]

I apologize if this question has already been answered, but does anyone know if Jones is in the lineup today? Thanks in advance.

[JTrea81]

I apologize if this question has already been answered, but does anyone know if Jones is in the lineup today? Thanks in advance.

I'm listening to the audio feed and from what I can tell and keep in mind I don't speak Spanish, but I swear they said something about Jones not being in the lineup. I'm still listening to hear if he comes up to bat...