Flash Era Coming to an End?

[Frobby]

Schoop, unsurprisingly, given his peripherals, dropping off. .674 OPS despite a high BABIP (.321), and .507 OPS over his last 40 PA (11 G).

I think it's pretty obvious he's still got some things to work on at the MiL level. Flash and Weeks really ought to be splitting time at 2B, with Flash playing everyday between 2B and occasional starts at SS or 3B. I see little room/need for Lombardozzi in the equation.

If you just handed Schoop or Flaherty a full-time job at 2B, who do you think would hit better in 2014? I think it's Schoop. I wouldn't expect much better than a .700 OPS, though.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Get over yourself.

Other that pointing your rather nonsensical, if not incoherent and rambling rhetoric throughout this threead, there is really nothing to get over. If not, show me where one person has stated that RF is a "gold glove wizard at multiple positions". You can't. El Gordo is the most optimistic RF supporter and hasn't come anywhere close to that. It's pure nonsense.

If I can't use metrics to make arguments, and I can't use my eyeballs to make arguments, what on Earth can I use to make arguments without offending your sensibilities?

You certainly can. You've just made poor use of them and even most of the people that don't like Flaherty (other than maybe COC) don't agree with you on your obervational analysis and therhetoric.

Flaherty now seems to be back in a reserve/utility role due to Manny's return. Hopefully that'll make him a less frequent subject of discussion.

The team will be better off with Machado at third base. Agreed.

[CA-ORIOLE]

If you just handed Schoop or Flaherty a full-time job at 2B, who do you think would hit better in 2014? I think it's Schoop. I wouldn't expect much better than a .700 OPS, though.

Overall, I'd lean towards Schoop myself as being more productive at this point. Certainly more upside (even this year). It looks like he has a lot of power potential. But bd is right that Schoop may very well struggle badly.

[Flash- bd]

If you just handed Schoop or Flaherty a full-time job at 2B, who do you think would hit better in 2014? I think it's Schoop. I wouldn't expect much better than a .700 OPS, though.

I think Flaherty. I think Schoop is more likely to go below .674, given his peripherals, over a longer sample size than he is to improve on it. He's got great power but he's quite raw and I think it was too early to give him his ML start. Flaherty has already proven he can hit to the tune of .674 over a large-ish sample size, and I still feel that if he finally got a few months worth of consistent bats like the likes of Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Machado, that he has room for improvement on that.

Then again I also changed my name to Flaherty's nickname.

Redskins Rick-- lol, I hadn't even realized we'd dropped him. Anyhow, color me pleased.

[El Gordo]

If we don't extend Hardy then it's probably Manny to SS.

I'm getting pessimistic about extending Hardy. The more time passes, the less reason he has to sign a team-friendly deal. The Yankees need a SS next year and that alone inflates the market. If he decides that he'll only sign a deal that's close to what he'd make as a FA, he won't get that from the O's.

Moving Manny to SS would be a big mistake, IMO. Schoop will be an average 3B at best so you are giving up a lot of runs there on defense, and I doubt he will be better than Manny on offense. Manny might be a bit better than Hardy on offense and defense at SS, but not by all that much.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Which is about 1.7 seasons. Frankly, that statement only makes sense if you are talking about measuring skill, rather than performance. But even then, I don't think it takes 1.7 seasons to ascertain skill, at a general level, without the use of statistics. Manny hasn't played 1.7 seasons yet, but I'm pretty sure he's a Platinum Glove-level 3B.

When a guy is 35 runs above average it's pretty obvious. When a guy is 20 runs above average he's elite. So 10-15 runs just doesn't matter. Same goes for guys that are horrible.

The more nuanced (and more common) scenarios are guys in between zero and +/- 5-8 range or so. That's where you need more data.

[El Gordo]

If you just handed Schoop or Flaherty a full-time job at 2B, who do you think would hit better in 2014? I think it's Schoop. I wouldn't expect much better than a .700 OPS, though.

I think Flaherty could give us .700 OPS and a better glove at 2B. His over all numbers don't show it to date, but his LD% is well up over last season, his BB% up, and his K% is down, His BABIP is below his career average. Hid GB/FB is up a lot from last season. He is not getting the ball in the air as much, so no HR so far, and a lot of GB finding gloves.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Moving Manny to SS would be a big mistake, IMO. Schoop will be an average 3B at best so you are giving up a lot of runs there on defense, and I doubt he will be better than Manny on offense. Manny might be a bit better than Hardy on offense and defense at SS, but not by all that much.

Yeah, I think you're probably right. We're talking about a super elite defender here. A guy that Brooks Robinson admitted was better than he ever was. You just don't move guys like that.

[El Gordo]

When a guy is 35 runs above average it's pretty obvious. When a guy is 20 runs above average he's elite. So 10-15 runs just doesn't matter. Same goes for guys that are horrible.

The more nuanced (and more common) scenarios are guys in between zero and +/- 5-8 range or so. That's where you need more data.

Yep. :agree:

[Flash- bd]

I think Flaherty could give us .700 OPS and a better glove at 2B. His over all numbers don't show it to date, but his LD% is well up over last season, his BB% up, and his K% is down, His BABIP is below his career average. Hid GB/FB is up a lot from last season. He is not getting the ball in the air as much, so no HR so far, and a lot of GB finding gloves.

Nice post. I'm also not worried about the power coming with Flaherty eventually, it has in the past.

[Frobby]

I think Flaherty could give us .700 OPS and a better glove at 2B. His over all numbers don't show it to date, but his LD% is well up over last season, his BB% up, and his K% is down, His BABIP is below his career average. Hid GB/FB is up a lot from last season. He is not getting the ball in the air as much, so no HR so far, and a lot of GB finding gloves.

I haven't seen enough to conclude whether Flaherty is hitting in some bad luck, or just not hitting the ball that well right now. In any event, I'd be a fool to judge Flaherty solely on the first 26 games, considering that he started off very cold in 2012 and 2013 but eventually heated up. Still, he is 27 years old and has a career .636 OPS, and is running out of time to show he can be a .700+ guy.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think Flaherty could give us .700 OPS and a better glove at 2B. His over all numbers don't show it to date, but his LD% is well up over last season, his BB% up, and his K% is down, His BABIP is below his career average. Hid GB/FB is up a lot from last season. He is not getting the ball in the air as much, so no HR so far, and a lot of GB finding gloves.

There are some positives there. He is getting hit with some pretty nasty overshifts this year though. More noticeable than last year imo. That's just a fact of life and something else he's gong to have to adjust to.

[MrOrange82]

Other that pointing your rather nonsensical, if not incoherent and rambling rhetoric throughout this threead, there is really nothing to get over. If not, show me where one person has stated that RF is a "gold glove wizard at multiple positions". You can't. El Gordo is the most optimistic RF supporter and hasn't come anywhere close to that. It's pure nonsense.

Not one person has said that. Correct. If you're not used to my hyperbolizing by now, you never will be.

The point is that several people have used words/phrases like "solid" and "above average" to describe Flaherty's defense not just at 2B, but at multiple positions all over the diamond, and the word "superior" has even been used to compare Flaherty's left-side defense to Lombardozzi's. And that's what I take issue with: there's a stark difference between the fact that Flaherty has been assigned to play positions like 3B, 1B, and RF (in addition to 2B and SS) and assertions that he is a capable glove-man at those positions.

My hope is that Flaherty never gets enough innings away from 2B and SS to "prove" that he's below average at other positions (to be honest, I don't even like him at SS). So, if metrics can actually be used in this situation to show that Flaherty's capable at those positions (i.e., that my appraisal is just...wrong), how would you do so?

As far as I can tell, despite my fondness for sarcastic exaggeration, I'm one of a very, very few people around here to ever come out and expressly say "you were right, I was wrong" when faced with strong evidence that countered my original position. Hell, Frobby (and even Gordo) can attest to that...and from recent memory, at that. I'm not going to leave the argument to protect my pride. So what, besides your visual impressions, are you leaning on to support the idea that Flaherty is "solid" with the glove at 3B (let alone "above average" at 3B or any of the other positions on the laundry list)?

[El Gordo]

There are some positives there. He is getting hit with some pretty nasty overshifts this year though. More noticeable than last year imo. That's just a fact of life and something else he's gong to have to adjust to.

Since our brighter lights tell us he never gets a hit, why do you suppose the bother with a shift on him? Do they shift on Cesar Izturis?

[CA-ORIOLE]

The point is that several people have used words/phrases like "solid" and "above average" to describe Flaherty's defense not just at 2B, but at multiple positions all over the diamond, and the word "superior" has even been used to compare Flaherty's left-side defense to Lombardozzi's. And that's what I take issue with:

Well, I don't think he's necessarily above average at ss/3b. I personally would say below average at ss and maybe average at 3b. Certainly average skills at third base imo. "Solid" is a reasonable term for both though imo.

As far as Lomabardozzi goes, the observation of the skill sets alone should give you and idea that Lombardozzi is not really viable at third base. I think you are pretty much alone in your opinion that he is. His skills just aren't comparable to Flaherty there.

There's a stark difference between the fact that Flaherty has been assigned to play positions like 3B, 1B, and RF (in addition to 2B and SS) and assertions that he is a capable glove-man at those positions.

Again, I think you are (mostly) alone in that position/observation that he is not "capable" in those positions or have a moving definiton "capable". Not to mention and under appreciation of the skill/abilty/value to "capably" play multiple positions.

My hope is that Flaherty never gets enough innings away from 2B and SS to "prove" that he's below average at other positions (to be honest, I don't even like him at SS). So, if metrics can actually be used in this situation to show that Flaherty's capable at those positions (i.e., that my appraisal is just...wrong), how would you do so?

Observation of the skill sets and play. My issue (other than the sss metrics and other rehtoric) was that you chose to take 2 difficult plays at third base and focus on them as an indicator that Flaherty has been a "poor" defender at third base this year.

Not one person has said that. Correct. If you're not used to my hyperbolizing by now, you never will be.

As far as I can tell, despite my fondness for sarcastic exaggeration, I'm one of a very, very few people around here to ever come out and expressly say "you were right, I was wrong" when faced with strong evidence that countered my original position.

Nothing wrong with a little sarcastic hyperbole to try and lighten things up a bit. I have tried, but I think you have to balance that with being "funny" and the seriousness of trying to make a point in a debate. Particularly in the same thread/paragraph that you are stating that you have tried and tried to hammer home this point some 350 times, etc. No one thinks that RF is a "GG caliber defender at multiple positions". If that was meant to be funny, I obviously missed the joke. If it was a point of some sort, well......

Hell, Frobby (and even Gordo) can attest to that...and from recent memory, at that. I'm not going to leave the argument to protect my pride. So what, besides your visual impressions, are you leaning on to support the idea that Flaherty is "solid" with the glove at 3B (let alone "above average" at 3B or any of the other positions on the laundry list)?

There's not going to be any proving of right and wrong here. RF will probably never get enough time at SS/3B to have any real objective statistically significant data. Hardy and MM are the better players for these positions and best for the Baltimore Orioles. This is an observational analysis. It think RF has average skills for third base and below average skills for ss. I think he has played solidly and within those skills. His fundamentals are also sound. I have not seen/noticed non-plays at third base base that I thought an average third baseman makes that play. Shortstop is a little different, but I think he is a very capable backup there. Simple as that.

Anyways, have the last word on this. I'm glad MM and Hardy look healthy and I hope Schoop does great at second base. He looks like a good one.