3rd Round - Brian Gonzalez - LHP (Archbishop McCarthy HS, FL)

[Can_of_corn]

What? You're not a Hobgood hater also are you? Not the person Matt Hobby but the draft selection...

He says he'll grow another inch, maybe add another tick, his CH is developed, had good HS numbers, O's scouts are high on him, Manny hugged him, from Ft. Laudy....I like the pick on the surface.

He got young bones? Because the rest of him is 19 in October.

And yea I was against the Hobgood pick before he was even selected. This isn't as bad as Hobgood since he is only a third round pick and all.

[bobmc]

He got young bones? Because the rest of him is 19 in October.

And yea I was against the Hobgood pick before he was even selected. This isn't as bad as Hobgood since he is only a third round pick and all.

Wow before selection! Good call on MH!

Think of Gonzo II as Matusz with "thickness" or Sid Fernandez II....I kinda thought we'd get a better price since he wasn't ranked and all but whatevs, spilt milk, move on - nauseous or not.

[Stotle]

Yea, whatever.

I would have liked to see them sign at least one overslot kid. The idea of paying a "thick" kid with a 90 MPH FB overslot makes me a bit nauseous.

I understand his wanting overslot. That price is too high for my taste, but it's an evaluative call. Good data point for the scouting department -- this pick was the focus of all of their draft efforts; let's see what the process yields.

[notyourbuddy]

Can never have too many DHs I suppose. Welcome aboard kiddo!

(and high five your agent for me. He done good.)

[eb45]

Yea, whatever.

I would have liked to see them sign at least one overslot kid. The idea of paying a "thick" kid with a 90 MPH FB overslot makes me a bit nauseous.

Ideal body

Good mechanics

Two developed secondaries

Mid-90s FB

Command of entire arsenal

You're not going to find all five of those for 700K in the third round. You're probably not even going to find them after the top ten. Hunter Harvey only had four of them. Stephen Tarpley might have only had two. Gonzalez has three, and arguably the most important ones.

If Gonzalez was the O's fourth pick in this draft, everyone (except the people who only look at the number next to his name in the BA rankings) would love the pick. You can get caught up in the FB velo and build type all you like, but don't ignore the legit plus changeup, good reports on the curve, and the fact that he can throw all three for strikes in any count. 18 year olds with that skillset do not grow on trees.

[Stotle]

Ideal body

Good mechanics

Two developed secondaries

Mid-90s FB

Command of entire arsenal

You're not going to find all five of those for 700K in the third round. You're probably not even going to find them after the top ten. Hunter Harvey only had four of them. Stephen Tarpley might have only had two. Gonzalez has three, and arguably the most important ones.

If Gonzalez was the O's fourth pick in this draft, everyone (except the people who only look at the number next to his name in the BA rankings) would love the pick. You can get caught up in the FB velo and build type all you like, but don't ignore the legit plus changeup, good reports on the curve, and the fact that he can throw all three for strikes in any count. 18 year olds with that skillset do not grow on trees.

I think these are fair points. I also think it's reasonable to question a $700K investment in the profile as a general matter (maybe not so much the specific player, since I imagine the O's had folks at every single start of his and are as familiar as anyone with how he looked this spring).

To be honest, I didn't pay much attention to him this spring because he was a clear college guy for me as of last summer. But if his stuff took a step forward this spring and he was at least holding 88-90 through his starts (he was falling off to 85-88 last summer) he could be interesting.

His projection will come from tightening his physique as the body continues to mature, so we'll see how it all comes together. I don't see a reason not to trust Baltimore making a solid decision here, so until there is evidence there was a mistake made (and hopefully there never will be) I don't see the point in hand wringing. Unless Gonzalez were to sign for underslot, significant overslot options options elsewhere were limited. Getting one of the "big names" that fell likely would have required seven figures, and that would be half Baltimore's entire outlay.

The amateur scouting department was dealt a tough hand with this budget/these picks. Honestly, if they are able to salvage a solid class it will be highly impressive. They were easily the most disadvantaged team, and by a significant margin.

[weams]

I think these are fair points. I also think it's reasonable to question a $700K investment in the profile as a general matter (maybe not so much the specific player, since I imagine the O's had folks at every single start of his and are as familiar as anyone with how he looked this spring).

To be honest, I didn't pay much attention to him this spring because he was a clear college guy for me as of last summer. But if his stuff took a step forward this spring and he was at least holding 88-90 through his starts (he was falling off to 85-88 last summer) he could be interesting.

His projection will come from tightening his physique as the body continues to mature, so we'll see how it all comes together. I don't see a reason not to trust Baltimore making a solid decision here, so until there is evidence there was a mistake made (and hopefully there never will be) I don't see the point in hand wringing. Unless Gonzalez were to sign for underslot, significant overslot options options elsewhere were limited. Getting one of the "big names" that fell likely would have required seven figures, and that would be half Baltimore's entire outlay.

The amateur scouting department was dealt a tough hand with this budget/these picks. Honestly, if they are able to salvage a solid class it will be highly impressive. They were easily the most disadvantaged team, and by a significant margin.

This is a very thoughtful response. Thank you for contributing.

[weams]

Ideal body

Good mechanics

Two developed secondaries

Mid-90s FB

Command of entire arsenal

You're not going to find all five of those for 700K in the third round. You're probably not even going to find them after the top ten. Hunter Harvey only had four of them. Stephen Tarpley might have only had two. Gonzalez has three, and arguably the most important ones.

If Gonzalez was the O's fourth pick in this draft, everyone (except the people who only look at the number next to his name in the BA rankings) would love the pick. You can get caught up in the FB velo and build type all you like, but don't ignore the legit plus changeup, good reports on the curve, and the fact that he can throw all three for strikes in any count. 18 year olds with that skillset do not grow on trees.

We are fortunate to have and your skill set here on this site.

[Can_of_corn]

Ideal body

Good mechanics

Two developed secondaries

Mid-90s FB

Command of entire arsenal

You're not going to find all five of those for 700K in the third round. You're probably not even going to find them after the top ten. Hunter Harvey only had four of them. Stephen Tarpley might have only had two. Gonzalez has three, and arguably the most important ones.

If Gonzalez was the O's fourth pick in this draft, everyone (except the people who only look at the number next to his name in the BA rankings) would love the pick. You can get caught up in the FB velo and build type all you like, but don't ignore the legit plus changeup, good reports on the curve, and the fact that he can throw all three for strikes in any count. 18 year olds with that skillset do not grow on trees.

Going just but I what I have read I am not seeing three.

He himself seems to think that his Curve is still a work in progress so is it developed? Can he command it?

From the snippet on the front page "Flashes a decent break".

I certainly hope that the O's efforts were not in vain and the kid can help but I am not going to fake enthusiasm for the pick.

[weams]

Going just but I what I have read I am not seeing three.

He himself seems to think that his Curve is still a work in progress so is it developed? Can he command it?

From the snippet on the front page "Flashes a decent break".

I certainly hope that the O's efforts were not in vain and the kid can help but I am not going to fake enthusiasm for the pick.

I never heard of this kid before last week so I am not the one to talk about him. The Orioles seem happy to have him, his tools, his youth, and his upside in the organization

[Can_of_corn]

I would hope they don't have buyer's remorse already.

[Stotle]

Going just but I what I have read I am not seeing three.

He himself seems to think that his Curve is still a work in progress so is it developed? Can he command it?

From the snippet on the front page "Flashes a decent break".

I certainly hope that the O's efforts were not in vain and the kid can help but I am not going to fake enthusiasm for the pick.

I think it is fair to say he has a decent feel for two secondaries for a prep arm. Honestly, the velo is going to be make or break for him (as well as keeping on top of the body). It's not a low risk signing by any means, but a $700K investment means the O's amateur guys really like him. He should be in the GCL soon and I'm sure BP will have guys there to see him at some point.

[weams]

I think it is fair to say he has a decent feel for two secondaries for a prep arm. Honestly, the velo is going to be make or break for him (as well as keeping on top of the body). It's not a low risk signing by any means, but a $700K investment means the O's amateur guys really like him. He should be in the GCL soon and I'm sure BP will have guys there to see him at some point.

Maybe You?

[Stotle]

Maybe You?

No, I will have my hands full with midwest league and the amateur showcase circuit (plus Team USA and the Cape).

[McNulty]

No, I will have my hands full with midwest league and the amateur showcase circuit (plus Team USA and the Cape).

.

#flow