3rd Round - Brian Gonzalez - LHP (Archbishop McCarthy HS, FL)

[Frobby]

If they are not going to save some pool money then why pick him in the third round? What are the odds that he wouldn't have been on the board later in the draft?

Pretty hard for us to know. Obviously the O's thought there was some risk that other teams were as high on him as they were.

[Can_of_corn]

Pretty hard for us to know. Obviously the O's thought there was some risk that other teams were as high on him as they were.

Or he will sign for significantly under slot.

[bobmc]

Or he will sign for significantly under slot.

He sounds "motivated" to sign....

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hello <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Birdland&src=hash">#Birdland</a> Thankful and Blessed to be drafted by <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Orioles&src=hash">#Orioles</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MLBDraft2014&src=hash">#MLBDraft2014</a></p>— Brian Gonzalez (@BirdLandGonzo) <a href="https://twitter.com/BirdLandGonzo/statuses/475165754812530689">June 7, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[eb45]

If they are not going to save some pool money then why pick him in the third round? What are the odds that he wouldn't have been on the board later in the draft?

Pretty good. If you see a third-round talent, chances are someone else does too. If you like him more than anyone else on the board you think you could sign, then you don't gamble, you get your guy. Also, Gonzalez said he was told he'd be going between the 3rd and 5th round, and there's no way the O's were the only team he talked to.

[weams]

Or he will sign for significantly under slot.

I'd be surprised.

[Can_of_corn]

I'd be surprised.

Well, when the other alternative is that the O's used their first draft pick to draft an older HS pitcher that was seen by the scouting consensus as being a large reach, I get worried.

Yea it's only a third round pick if they blow it but when you handed out the first three picks already you shouldn't be reaching.

[eb45]

Well, when the other alternative is that the O's used their first draft pick to draft an older HS pitcher that was seen by the scouting consensus as being a large reach, I get worried.

Yea it's only a third round pick if they blow it but when you handed out the first three picks already you shouldn't be reaching.

What "scouting consensus"? BA? That's not what they are. The best idea we have of what teams thought of Gonzalez is where they told him he'd be drafted, and that was third to fifth round. If BA had him at 376 or whatever, that's BA being out of line with the consensus.

[weams]

What "scouting consensus"? BA? That's not what they are. The best idea we have of what teams thought of Gonzalez is where they told him he'd be drafted, and that was third to fifth round. If BA had him at 376 or whatever, that's BA being out of line with the consensus.

I think this is the guy we wanted.

[Can_of_corn]

What "scouting consensus"? BA? That's not what they are. The best idea we have of what teams thought of Gonzalez is where they told him he'd be drafted, and that was third to fifth round. If BA had him at 376 or whatever, that's BA being out of line with the consensus.

And did any of the other groups have him listed as a third round guy? I was under the impression yesterday that BA was the only group to even have him listed.

Or just some teams that said third to fifth round. Because we know how honest teams are in this situation.

[Three Run Homer]

There's a huge difference in questioning Dickerson sending a runner and this. You can quantify how often a runner scores in that situation, who's on deck, the outfielders arm, the pitchers splits, etc. What you and others have done here is read a blurb, looked at a ranking for someone you've never even *heard* of before and criticized that decision. That's madness. I'm not claiming to be any sort of expert here; I simply know what my limitations are as a fan. I'm not qualified to criticize a high school draft pick. Do you think the Orioles are intentionally making stupid decisions? Again, I can't believe I'm having to even say any of this. It should be pretty basic.

No, they are not intentionally making stupid decisions.

They (meaning Peter Angelos) may be making penny pinching decisions. Or they may have fallen in love with a player and drafted him way above where the rest of the industry thought he would go--like they did with Matt Hobgood. This may be a classic case of what finance theory calls the winner's curse.

As for the notion that draft decisions are immune to criticism because regular fans can't possibly evaluate them, I just completely disagree. I may not have the answers but the information out there is enough to give me the right to ask questions.

[eb45]

As for the notion that draft decisions are immune to criticism because regular fans can't possibly evaluate them, I just completely disagree. I may not have the answers but the information out there is enough to give me the right to ask questions.

What information are you going off of that is, in your opinion, "enough"?

[weams]

No, they are not intentionally making stupid decisions.

They (meaning Peter Angelos) may be making penny pinching decisions. Or they may have fallen in love with a player and drafted him way above where the rest of the industry thought he would go--like they did with Matt Hobgood. This may be a classic case of what finance theory calls the winner's curse.

As for the notion that draft decisions are immune to criticism because regular fans can't possibly evaluate them, I just completely disagree. I may not have the answers but the information out there is enough to give me the right to ask questions.

What information are you going off of that is, in your opinion, "enough"?

Hey, a regular fan like me can't possibly know enough to make a real judgement here. Certainly the team is not immune to criticism here. What really blew this draft though was that we chose to sign two free agents and we got a middle of the rotation starter for the the other pick. Three picks lopped off the top. Don't expect that with that money gone, that much can be made of this draft no matter what.

[atomic]

I think we are putting a lot on this guy because he was our highest pick. Truth is, most 3rd rounders never make the majors, and most of those who do have little impact (cough - Eddie Murray - cough). In the last 10 years, the following 3rd rounders accumulated more than 5 WAR:

2004 - Ian Desmond, Adam Lind, J.A. Happ

2005 - Brett Gardner, Brian Duensing

2006 - Joe Smith

2007 - Jonathan Lucroy, Matt Harvey

2008 - Craig Kimbrell, Danny Espinosa

2009 - Kyle Seager

There are a few very good players in there, but you are talking about two guys a year out of 30 picked.

As to the Orioles, they got amazing value from Murray, of course. The others they drafted who exceeded 5 WAR were John Habyan, Alex Ochoa, and Kiko Garcia. Notably, Zach Britton was a 3rd rounder, and he may be a 5+ WAR guy in a couple of years (2.6 now).

Yeah I was looking every teams histories in the third round and by far most players never contribute to the big club. If Baseball America scouts knew anything at all and had any consistency of being right they would be making millions off dollars as a club employees. There doesn't seem to be genius scouts out there who are a better than everyone else.

[Capn Vivi]

Yeah I was looking every teams histories in the third round and by far most players never contribute to the big club. If Baseball America scouts knew anything at all and had any consistency of being right they would be making millions off dollars as a club employees. There doesn't seem to be genius scouts out there who are a better than everyone else.

Prospects must be drafted, then developed. These are human beings, anything can happen.

[weams]

Prospects must be drafted, then developed. These are human beings, anything can happen.

Michael Jordan was the greatest athlete of our time.