3rd Round - Brian Gonzalez - LHP (Archbishop McCarthy HS, FL)

[Three Run Homer]

What information are you going off of that is, in your opinion, "enough"?

Here is the information I have.

(1) He was taken with the 90th pick, as a pitcher.

(2) Baseball America ranked him as the 386th best prospect, and ranked him as a first baseman.

(3) He is one of the few propsects taken in the 3rd round who did not have a writeup available in the mlb.com draft tracker, suggesting that mlb.com did not regard him as one of the top prospects going into the draft.

For me, that's enough information to at least raise questions about whether the Orioles reached for him.

And I vehemently disagree with people who think that I, as an average fan who is not an expert on scouting, have no right to ask these questions. You don't have to be a genius to question authority.

Can someone show me another pre-draft ranking that ranks him substantially higher than BA?

[eb45]

Here is the information I have.

(1) He was taken with the 90th pick, as a pitcher.

(2) Baseball America ranked him as the 386th best prospect, and ranked him as a first baseman.

(3) He is one of the few propsects taken in the 3rd round who did not have a writeup available in the mlb.com draft tracker, suggesting that mlb.com did not regard him as one of the top prospects going into the draft.

For me, that's enough information to at least raise questions about whether the Orioles reached for him.

And I vehemently disagree with people who think that I, as an average fan who is not an expert on scouting, have no right to ask these questions. You don't have to be a genius to question authority.

Can someone show me another pre-draft ranking that ranks him substantially higher than BA?

The Orioles' ranking. There you go.

It's the MLB draft. It's not like any other draft in sports. There is no such thing as a reach after the first round or so. Everyone's lists are going to vary wildly after the first 50 or so guys. WILDLY. BA's list is just one list. There are so many other lists out there and you're never going to see them all. There is no "objective" ranking. You are not going to see the general consensus. Blasting a pick based on things TWO SOURCES have said when there are dozens of other sources that you will never see makes you look incredibly ignorant, like you don't have the slightest understanding of how the draft works.

The Orioles' draft staff are professionals. If they took Gonzalez in the third round, it's because they felt he was a) a third-round talent, b) going to get taken by another team shortly, or c) both of those. BA disagrees, and that's fine. That doesn't make them right or the Orioles right. It means they had different opinions of his ability.

If all you're doing is aggregating things a few other people have said, then maybe you should actually ask questions instead of saying "one of these lists was made by stupid people." Enraged banging at a keyboard because the O's have a different list than BA and MLB.com is not productive for anyone. We'll see what he signs for, we'll see how he looks when he starts playing pro ball, and then we can start judging the pick. That's what average fans with no interest in learning to scout can do. There is absolutely no point in complaining about a single pick based on relative position on three lists.

For comparison's sake, taken five picks before Gonzalez was Cy Sneed, a college junior out of Dallas Baptist. I saw Sneed four or five times last summer, and wasn't incredibly impressed. I didn't think he showed any future plus offerings, I didn't see exceptional command, and I didn't see him hit above 92. I saw decent pitchability, a good frame, and four pitches he was comfortable with, but I had him projected as a rounds 6-10 guy. BA had him at about 182 last I checked. I would not call Sneed a reach in the third round.

[Can_of_corn]

Michael Jordan was the greatest athlete of our time.

:rofl:

[bobmc]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>ESPNs Keith Law says O's top pick, hi school LH Brian Gonzalez has chance to be mid rotation starter. Plus change, solid command.</p>— Steve Melewski (@masnSteve) <a href="

">June 7, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[csgordos]

Boy I hope this kid and his family doesn't know about this message board yet. This is probably the biggest day / time of this players life and the fan base is making it seem like we wasted a pick on him. I have zero clue as to what this kid can and will do, but our team drafted him so I say Good Luck Brian and I hope you prove our scouts right.

[Three Run Homer]

The Orioles' ranking. There you go.

It's the MLB draft. It's not like any other draft in sports. There is no such thing as a reach after the first round or so. Everyone's lists are going to vary wildly after the first 50 or so guys. WILDLY. BA's list is just one list. There are so many other lists out there and you're never going to see them all. There is no "objective" ranking. You are not going to see the general consensus. Blasting a pick based on things TWO SOURCES have said when there are dozens of other sources that you will never see makes you look incredibly ignorant, like you don't have the slightest understanding of how the draft works.

The Orioles' draft staff are professionals. If they took Gonzalez in the third round, it's because they felt he was a) a third-round talent, b) going to get taken by another team shortly, or c) both of those. BA disagrees, and that's fine. That doesn't make them right or the Orioles right. It means they had different opinions of his ability.

If all you're doing is aggregating things a few other people have said, then maybe you should actually ask questions instead of saying "one of these lists was made by stupid people." Enraged banging at a keyboard because the O's have a different list than BA and MLB.com is not productive for anyone. We'll see what he signs for, we'll see how he looks when he starts playing pro ball, and then we can start judging the pick. That's what average fans with no interest in learning to scout can do. There is absolutely no point in complaining about a single pick based on relative position on three lists.

For comparison's sake, taken five picks before Gonzalez was Cy Sneed, a college junior out of Dallas Baptist. I saw Sneed four or five times last summer, and wasn't incredibly impressed. I didn't think he showed any future plus offerings, I didn't see exceptional command, and I didn't see him hit above 92. I saw decent pitchability, a good frame, and four pitches he was comfortable with, but I had him projected as a rounds 6-10 guy. BA had him at about 182 last I checked. I would not call Sneed a reach in the third round.

Ok, here are some other rankings that I found.

Perfect Game: 438

MLB Prospect Guide: not in top 350

Baseball instinct: Not in top 200

Baseball Draft Report: not in top 125 HS pitching prospects

Minor League Ball: not in top 350

If anyone has a pre-draft ranking that puts him in the top 200, let's see it.

[Can_of_corn]

Ok, here are some other rankings that I found.

Perfect Game: 438

MLB Prospect Guide: not in top 350

Baseball instinct: Not in top 200

Baseball Draft Report: not in top 125 HS pitching prospects

Minor League Ball: not in top 350

If anyone has a pre-draft ranking that puts him in the top 200, let's see it.

I am still not buying that he wouldn't have been there in the 4th.

If you are sold on a guy then pick him, but pick him at the appropriate point in the draft.

[weams]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>ESPNs Keith Law says O's top pick, hi school LH Brian Gonzalez has chance to be mid rotation starter. Plus change, solid command.</p>— Steve Melewski (@masnSteve) <a href="

">June 7, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Third round, mid rotation STARTER? Yeah, I'll take it.

[skanar]

Tony Blengino, whose work at Fangraphs I have mostly not enjoyed, provided a fantastic behind-the-scenes view of how a MLB draft room works.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-road-to-draft-day-part-1/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-happens-in-the-draft-room/

One of his observations in the second article is:

The 30 clubs? draft boards actually begin to diverge quite quickly. As early as the sandwich or second rounds, names will begin to be called that other clubs don?t have ranked nearly as high on their respective boards. If a board has been assembled correctly, with signability appropriately accounted for ? more on that later ? a team can get as many of three of their top 30 rated prospects in the first three rounds, and can draft as many as six of their top 60 rated players, and anywhere from 15 to 20 players off of their entire ?big board?.

Which would tend to indicate that the 'conventional wisdom' is only about 40-60 players deep.

[Stotle]

Ok, here are some other rankings that I found.

Perfect Game: 438

MLB Prospect Guide: not in top 350

Baseball instinct: Not in top 200

Baseball Draft Report: not in top 125 HS pitching prospects

Minor League Ball: not in top 350

If anyone has a pre-draft ranking that puts him in the top 200, let's see it.

Well, one problem is a number of those sites are aggregators that research the main draft media sites. So if the couple sites that do this well don't have him, no way on earth the other guys will (since they aren't all over the country watching guys and aren't talking to the orgs).

[Three Run Homer]

Well, one problem is a number of those sites are aggregators that research the main draft media sites. So if the couple sites that do this well don't have him, no way on earth the other guys will (since they aren't all over the country watching guys and aren't talking to the orgs).

Sure, that makes sense. Which sites would you regard as actual independent assessments, as opposed to aggregators of others' opinions?

[jtschrei]

Well obviously someone in the organization loved this kid and didn't want to take the chance of not getting him in the 4th or later. Perhaps we knew another team really liked him as well. I bet someone asks Rajisch whether this was a stretch and we might get an answer.

Either way, only time will tell whether he was a reach. I think 3run has every right to raise questions about the pick though. Seems like he would have been there in the 4th.

[Ornithological]

In a Steve Melewski article, "Gonzalez said he heard he might be drafted anywhere between the third and fifth rounds."

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2014/06/an-interview-with-orioles-top-draft-pick-brian-gonzalez.html

Based on that, it doesn't seem like a reach.

[Can_of_corn]

In a Steve Melewski article, "Gonzalez said he heard he might be drafted anywhere between the third and fifth rounds."

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2014/06/an-interview-with-orioles-top-draft-pick-brian-gonzalez.html

Based on that, it doesn't seem like a reach.

And he might have heard that from...the Orioles.

[weams]

Well, one problem is a number of those sites are aggregators that research the main draft media sites. So if the couple sites that do this well don't have him, no way on earth the other guys will (since they aren't all over the country watching guys and aren't talking to the orgs).

Maybe some don't know that you are involved with this professionally. Thank you again for actual insight to the process and not just idle speculation.