3/33 extension: Hardy or Markakis

[El Gordo]

I appreciate the defense I really do. I just think for a team that operates with the resources we do cannot afford to pay a premium for a SS when they already have a guy in the fold who can play the position and do it likely just as well.

If JJ played any other position on the diamond he would not be close to worth 11 million. If we had no other options at SS then I would agree that we should resign him. At the end of the day I seriously doubt that 3/33 gets it done anyway. Someone is going to be willing to offer him more years though likely not much more money.

I just think an 11 million a year shortstop whose primary attribute right now is defense is a luxury a team like the O's cannot afford with Manny in the fold and numerous other guys standing in line to be paid.

I think Manny can be about as good defensively as JJ and a bit better with the bat. But you won't find anyone who can give you Manny's numbers at 3B. And Manny's bat won't make up the difference there.

[Frobby]

I appreciate the defense I really do. I just think for a team that operates with the resources we do cannot afford to pay a premium for a SS when they already have a guy in the fold who can play the position and do it likely just as well.

If JJ played any other position on the diamond he would not be close to worth 11 million. If we had no other options at SS then I would agree that we should resign him. At the end of the day I seriously doubt that 3/33 gets it done anyway. Someone is going to be willing to offer him more years though likely not much more money.

I just think an 11 million a year shortstop whose primary attribute right now is defense is a luxury a team like the O's cannot afford with Manny in the fold and numerous other guys standing in line to be paid.

The two bolded statements seem contradictory to me. How would $11 mm/yr be paying JJ a "premium" if it's not enough to get it done and some other team is going to be willing to pay him more? The truth is, $11 mm/yr is well below the market value for a SS of JJ's caliber.

I think the odds that Manny will be as good or better than JJ defensively at SS are about 25-50%. JJ is just so efficient and his decision making is flawless, and that takes years to develop. He's won the GG two years in a row for good reason, and you can't expect Manny to move there and play GG quality defense right away just because he's awesome at 3B. Which brings me to my second point, which is that the defensive dropoff at 3B is going to be huge. You are probably costing the team 20-35 runs defensively if you let Hardy go, move Manny to SS and acquire a new 3B. And that new 3B won't be working for free, by the way.

[DrungoHazewood]

The two bolded statements seem contradictory to me. How would $11 mm/yr be paying JJ a "premium" if it's not enough to get it done and some other team is going to be willing to pay him more? The truth is, $11 mm/yr is well below the market value for a SS of JJ's caliber.

I think the odds that Manny will be as good or better than JJ defensively at SS are about 25-50%. JJ is just so efficient and his decision making is flawless, and that takes years to develop. He's won the GG two years in a row for good reason, and you can't expect Manny to move there and play GG quality defense right away just because he's awesome at 3B. Which brings me to my second point, which is that the defensive dropoff at 3B is going to be huge. You are probably costing the team 20-35 runs defensively if you let Hardy go, move Manny to SS and acquire a new 3B. And that new 3B won't be working for free, by the way.

Remember the reason that Manny was called up from AA in the middle of a pennant race? Because the opening day third baseman was Mark Reynolds, and his backup was Wilson Betemit. It's almost like that was a test case for how big the difference could be between any two defensive players. Literally, over 150 games, Manny is probably 4-5 wins better than a Reynolds/Betemit solution at third (arguably even more), just with the glove. It would certainly not be trivial to find a third baseman who could combine with Manny at short and be as productive as Hardy/Machado are now.

[Aristotelian]

I love Nick but Hardy is more valuable. Average defensive/plus hitting OFs are easier to replace, and we have a couple possibilities in our system (Alvarez and Urrutia). Assuming Manny sticks at 3B, we have absolutely nobody who could replace JJ, and none of the 2015 FA SSs can bring JJ's combination of defense and offense. I would prefer to get him for 2 years but I would be OK with going to 3.

[El Gordo]

Remember the reason that Manny was called up from AA in the middle of a pennant race? Because the opening day third baseman was Mark Reynolds, and his backup was Wilson Betemit. It's almost like that was a test case for how big the difference could be between any two defensive players. Literally, over 150 games, Manny is probably 4-5 wins better than a Reynolds/Betemit solution at third (arguably even more), just with the glove. It would certainly not be trivial to find a third baseman who could combine with Manny at short and be as productive as Hardy/Machado are now.

:agree: I don't understand why this isn't blatantly obvious. But ironically Reynolds is having a career year with the glove.

[UpstateNYfan]

First, Hardy has been a bargain for 3 years and perhaps he might not be worth what he might ask for to stay. That fact is true of most, if not ALL last multi-year contracts given to aging players. I believe developing a chemistry in the infield is extremely important (as well for pitcher and catcher). There seems to be some that Schoop 3b, Manny SS, ? 2B would work. I suggest there will be some type of learning curve and poor play until that is resolved. I know no one at third will play it better than Manny. So, instead of having pluses at all infield positions you end up with one plus (Manny) and 2 question marks.

[SteveO]

The two bolded statements seem contradictory to me. How would $11 mm/yr be paying JJ a "premium" if it's not enough to get it done and some other team is going to be willing to pay him more? The truth is, $11 mm/yr is well below the market value for a SS of JJ's caliber.

I think the odds that Manny will be as good or better than JJ defensively at SS are about 25-50%. JJ is just so efficient and his decision making is flawless, and that takes years to develop. He's won the GG two years in a row for good reason, and you can't expect Manny to move there and play GG quality defense right away just because he's awesome at 3B. Which brings me to my second point, which is that the defensive dropoff at 3B is going to be huge. You are probably costing the team 20-35 runs defensively if you let Hardy go, move Manny to SS and acquire a new 3B. And that new 3B won't be working for free, by the way.

They are contradictory but you know as well as I do Frobby that some teams hand out those type of deals all the time because they can afford to eat the money on the back end unlike the O's.

If Boston, LA, NY, or a couple of other teams need a SS I have not doubt they will be willing to overpay for JJ. The O's wont do that IMO. Looking at some of the teams that would be in the market for a SS my guess is that if we do not sign him before he hits the market he is as good as gone.

I get what your saying and if the O's signed him to a 3/33 deal I would not hate it if that makes sense. I just think long term with the guys who are coming up for deals, the money is best spent elsewhere. I can see both sides though. I really love JJ and what he has done here, you cant keep everyone though.