Evaluate the Bedard trade

[zff4]

You do your due diligence and make up your mind PRIOR to making an offer, not after thinking about it for 30 days.

One would think. Although the assumption that teams clear-headedly make up their minds, put something on the table and stick with it seems to contrast with events in our own backyards for the last month. Although I grant you reality doesn't necessarily jive with appearances, our experience shows that few things about this month's trade dealings seem cut-and-dried enough to let us form a cohehent description about it, let alone any form any assumptions tht we can confidently reach. In the end, it's likely the same for other teams.

[Roll Tide]

Well, I'm not typing stuff like Erbe & Tillman are similarly rated prospects.

I'm not estimating that Tillman and Butler won't contribute until 2012 IF EVERYTHING GOES AS PLANNED. LOL

I'm not projecting Bedard's stats into 2012 and assuming he would have signed with Baltimore if he stayed or with Seattle if he is there.

I think all of my statements are pretty defendable. None of these are IMHO.

Does the words "Ceasefire" mean anything here.

I see two guys ...One who wants the trade, the other doesn't ... Kinda reminds me of the devaluing I've heard from the visiting fans here & on SD that would build their arguments "tilted".

I want the trade & rebuilding ...Dealing Bedard & Roberts means no more of the LIP Service.

[wildcard]

You have an interesting memory. Mussina clearly said prior to FA that he wanted to stay as close to Montoursville, PA as he could so the Yanks, Mets, Phillies, and Pirates were at the top of his list. Acting as if the Yanks were at the bottom of his list is simply making things up.

Bedard is a totally different case. He clearly despises high media areas. Mussina had no such issues. You want 5 to 1 odds that Bedard doesn't end up in Boston or New York? I'll put up 500, you put up 100?

And, if you bought a word of the "I'm not against staying in Balt" stuff in the article, you're pretty gullible IMHO.

Didn't think my memory was that bad.

"Mussina is a funny guy, after a fashion. It's just that his sense of humor is deadpan and sarcastic and sometimes hard to read. That, coupled with his adamantine self-confidence, has caused more than a few people to accuse him of being a jerk; one local sportscaster casually refers to Mussina as "that arrogant s.o.b." Other reporters have been turned off by his cool, sometimes clinical post-game demeanor.

But his teammates say they've got it all wrong.

"No, he's not flamboyant, he's not a character, he doesn't enjoy talking about himself to the media or anybody else," says friend and teammate Scott Kamieniecki. "Look, he doesn't talk to us that much." "

http://www.angelfire.com/sports/mikemussina/articlebalmag.html

Some of Mussina's traits remind me of Bedard.

[JTrea81]

Didn't think my memory was that bad.

"Mussina is a funny guy, after a fashion. It's just that his sense of humor is deadpan and sarcastic and sometimes hard to read. That, coupled with his adamantine self-confidence, has caused more than a few people to accuse him of being a jerk; one local sportscaster casually refers to Mussina as "that arrogant s.o.b." Other reporters have been turned off by his cool, sometimes clinical post-game demeanor.

But his teammates say they've got it all wrong.

"No, he's not flamboyant, he's not a character, he doesn't enjoy talking about himself to the media or anybody else," says friend and teammate Scott Kamieniecki. "Look, he doesn't talk to us that much." "

http://www.angelfire.com/sports/mikemussina/articlebalmag.html

Some of Mussina traits remember me of Bedard.

Mussina routinely has thrown players under the bus in New York. Bedard would never do that...

[wildcard]

Mussina routinely has thrown players under the bus in New York. Bedard would never do that...

I agree. Bedard does not have all of Mussina's traits. But neither guy liked talking the to media much. That led many to think Mussina would never chose to go to NY. vatech is making that same conclusion about Bedard. All I am saying is, one never knows.

[zff4]

I agree. Bedard does not have all of Mussina's traits. But neither guy liked talking the to media much. That led many to think Mussina would never chose to go to NY. vatech is making that same conclusion about Bedard. All I am saying is, one never knows.

Bedard in pinstripes in 2 years time I could do without.

[wildcard]

Well, I'm not typing stuff like Erbe & Tillman are similarly rated prospects.

I'm not estimating that Tillman and Butler won't contribute until 2012 IF EVERYTHING GOES AS PLANNED. LOL

I'm not projecting Bedard's stats into 2012 and assuming he would have signed with Baltimore if he stayed or with Seattle if he is there.

I think all of my statements are pretty defendable. None of these are IMHO.

My main point here is that all four of these pitcher are so far away from the majors that no one knows what they will do when and if they get to there. Erbe just turned 20 and Tillman will be 20 in April. One is 6'4", the other is 6'5". They both have shown they can strike out batters in A Ball. Both did not do as well last year at A+ as some scouts would like ERA wise.

If you are very confident that you know which one will be the better pitcher throughout their career, which one will stay healthy, then I think you should stop work and make tons of money on the lottery. Because you can really pick them.

Personally, I don't think anyone can look at these 2nd and 3rd round, 19 or 20 year old picks, both with good stuff and say who will be better when they both have pretty darn look arms.

The rates on these two talented pitcher is more like what have you done for me lately.

"2008 Baseball America rated #3 for the Marines

Chris Tillman, rhp Born: April 15, 1988. • B-T: R-R. • Ht: 6-5. • Wt: 195.

Drafted: HS—Fountain Valley, Calif., 2006 (2nd round).

Strengths: The lanky Tillman is growing into his 6-foot-5 frame, and the leverage in his clean delivery gives extra life to an above-average 91-94 mph four-seam fastball. Tillman throws a true 11-to-5 curveball with tight rotation and late break that functions as his strikeout pitch. He has a loose arm and could grow into more strength and velocity. He shows aptitude for a changeup, but it's still his third pitch.

2007 Baseball America rated #2 for the O's ahead of Liz.

2. Brandon Erbe, rhp Born: December 25, 1987 • B-T: R-R • Ht: 6-4 • Wt: 180

Drafted: HS--Baltimore, 2005 (3rd round) •

Strengths: Erbe works anywhere from 92-97 mph with his fastball, sitting around 94-95, and he can locate it on both sides of the plate. His slider is also a potential plus pitch when he commands it. Orioles officials have also been impressed by his demeanor and mound presence, which is advanced for his age and has been compared to that of Jim Palmer."

2007 BA 100 Prospects

Erbe #78

Morrow #87

Beato #99

Tillman Not rated

Butler Not rated

Some scouts seem to be higher on Tillman than Erbe right now because Erbe control was not up to par last year. However, betting on who will do better this year is a toss up.

[ON BASE %]

Jones for Bedard is a money trade. Read my sig. The fact that we get two prospects that are #2 type upsides is unreal as well. Tillman rates out higher than any of our minor league pitchers right now. Butler is a close second.

Sherrill should be our closer and I think he will inflate his value so we can get a great piece for him at the deadline if we feel the need to. People overpay for great BP pitching if they are in the hunt. And to be honest, even if Sherrill is a bust, it doesn't matter. We have a lot of young guys contending for BP slots. If he does have a good year and you add him to Walker and Bradford, we have some solid arms in the pen to help the young guys develop by putting them in non high pressure situations until they get their feet wet.

As for Bedard for Jones straight up.

http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/08/adam-jones-and-erik-bedard-quantified/

Enjoy.

Interesting read. Thanks!

[mama]

mariner fan here..

you guys are lucky to get jones!! he won't disappoint.

http://detectovision.com/?p=1284#more-1284

[zff4]

Evaluating the "Bedard trade" (I think we should put it in qualifying quotes) will really be an interesting exercise at the trade deadline. The trade in itself is meaningful right now, as was the Miggy trade, but we'll be able to put the whole magillah in context when we hopefully see the cascading effect of other trades done before and at the deadline and get a solid idea of where MacPhail intends to take us.

[mikezpen]

What Bedard trade???

[wildcard]

For God's sake, your information is over a year old. When BA comes out with there new stuff, this won't be true. Do you honestly believe the stuff you're typing right now? It is which one has more value today because that is what we're dealing in, life today. There is no way that Erbe could be the second player in a trade for Bedard today. No way. Show me one current publication that ranks them as the same level and I'll go away. The point isn't which one will make it.

I think you just made my point. There is no way that Tillman should be the second player in the Bedard trade. But that is the rumor. After rumors of Kemp and Kershaw (which were probably never true); Bailey, Votto, and/or Cueto; Jones and Morrow; Jones and Clement; all who are more developed players, now the rumor is Jones and Tillman. The risk for the O's is much, much higher and but that appears to be the corner that MacPhail has painted himself into.

At this point, I fully agree that Tillman will rate higher. Not because he has more talent then Erbe, but because Erbe experienced more control problems moving to A+ ball than Tillman. Both players have a long way to go to be productive players in the majors. There will likely be bumps for both along the way.

[wildcard]

You are completely considering the wrong information. There was stuff all over the papers back then about him wanting to stay close to Montoursville, PA. He was only going to consider places he could drive home to in a couple hours so it was limited to Balt (which wasn't happening), Philly, and NY. This isn't that difficult. Bedard is from Canada. There is a huge freaking difference between Mussina and Bedard. I seriously can't believe you're spouting this stuff as evidence. The fact that Mussina is a jerk has zero to do with him not liking the media. He gives media interviews with no issue. He is just arrogant. I'll find the PA stuff if you want, but jeez, this is stuff even a casual fan knew. For God's sake, five years later and I still remember he is from Montoursville, PA. I wonder why.....

Did you miss this? "he doesn't enjoy talking about himself to the media or anybody else,"

Mussina did not like being interview in Baltimore, unless he wanted to say something. He brushed off reporters often. Reacted to questions as stupid (which some no doubt were). Gave one word answers when trying to be interviewed. Whether it was arrogance or just a preference to be left alone is really not important for what is are talking about.

I completely agree that Mussina wanted to stay close to Pennsylvania. But is was a surprise to many that he would jump into the New York limelight. It was counter to him personality considering the New York press demands that he knew he would have to deal with. But he did it.

You say Bedard would never consider signing with NY. I say looking at what Mussina did for money and the hopes of a World Series ring, anything is possible.

[raypetty]

People are evaluating a trade that hasn't even happened.

[wildcard]

People are evaluating a trade that hasn't even happened.

First sentence of the inital post - OK, it appears like it will be done soon.

What do you expect us to talk about while we wait. This could be one of the largest trades in O's history. So you think we should just ignore it until it happens or is called off. That doesn't sound like a message board approach.