Evaluate the Bedard trade

[El Gordo]

A little over a week ago, you said that it was your opinion that Jones, Tillman and Sherrill are coming as part of the Bedard deal, and the teams are fighting over a fourth player. (See the thread you started on 1/24 entitled "Do You Make This Deal?"). You further state in the thread that you would do the deal for simply Jones, Tillman and Sherrill, and, IIRC, in other threads you have critized AM for not taking the deal, thereby purportedly wasting time. Based on everything I have read (and I'm speculating here as you are), AM, using good negotiating tactics (ask for more than you will settle for), was requesting the fourth player be Murrow, Clement or Truinfel. OTOH, Bavasi was probably countering with a marginal prospect. In the end, Bavasi put his "best and final offer" on the table, which was Butler and The Mike. It wasn't what AM requested, but it was better than the marginal prospect Bavasi had been offering previously. Bavasi is no stranger to negotiations, so I doubt he had his best offer on the table in December. Moreover, even if this didn't happen, I applaud AM for waiting this out. That is what good negotiators do (e.g., Scott Boras).

We'll never know until they publish their memoirs. Pointless argument until then IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

Did his 2006 numbers project accurately to his actaul 2007 numbers?

His trends continued. His strikeout rate has gone from 5.4 to 4.8 to 3.2 the last three years.

His walk rate continued to decline over the same period from 2.8 to 4.26 to 4.33. And his command rate had a related decline. His 2007 K:BB ratio was the worst of any pitcher (125+ innings) since 1975.

I don't see any indicators that show Trachsel improving last year or next year.

[El Gordo]

His trends continued. His strikeout rate has gone from 5.4 to 4.8 to 3.2 the last three years.

His walk rate continued to decline over the same period from 2.8 to 4.26 to 4.33. And his command rate had a related decline. His 2007 K:BB ratio was the worst of any pitcher (125+ innings) since 1975.

I don't see any indicators that show Trachsel improving last year or next year.

How did he manage to get all the quality starts or wins he he did, or bring back so much at the trade deadline with those awful numbers? There ought to be a law.

[El Gordo]

As usual there is no gray area. You have no doubt. How wonderful. Butler is a top prospect and Mickolio is no slouch. You have no idea who they were offering as the 4th guy back then.

We have no certainty that Jones was on the table back then. I remember reading reports that he wasn't, that they were pushing Balentien first.

[Sports Guy]

As usual there is no gray area. You have no doubt. How wonderful. Butler is a top prospect and Mickolio is no slouch. You have no idea who they were offering as the 4th guy back then.

No I don't have any idea...But I know what we wanted and that a guy like Butler would have been a reasonable common ground.

Face it, whether anyone wants to say it or not, AM held out in hopes that Wlad, Morrow, Clement or Triunfel would be added to Tillman, Jones and Sherrill. That is what he wanted and he didn't get it. So, his gamble of holding out MAY have cost him the chance to do other things. Now, when i say that, i am saying that because of the stated reason of wanting to see what happens with bedard before deciding what to do with everyone else. If AM is able to still make another 2-4 trades and get rid of the clutter and improve the positional talent, fine..Waiting was no harm, no foul.

I don't blame him for waiting some time to see if one of the other big 4 would be included and I am not even saying he should have jumped at Butler and the other 3 immediately...But by the time you got around Xmas and the first of the year, it was time to get moving.

No doubt in my mind that this trade could have been completed at least a month ago with the same players in it as it looks like will be in it now.

[clapdiddy]

No doubt in my mind that this trade could have been completed at least a month ago.

Yeah, but would the physicals already be done?

[NewMarketSean]

No I don't have any idea...But I know what we wanted and that a guy like Butler would have been a reasonable common ground.

Face it, whether anyone wants to say it or not, AM held out in hopes that Wlad, Morrow, Clement or Triunfel would be added to Tillman, Jones and Sherrill. That is what he wanted and he didn't get it. So, his gamble of holding out MAY have cost him the chance to do other things. Now, when i say that, i am saying that because of the stated reason of wanting to see what happens with bedard before deciding what to do with everyone else. If AM is able to still make another 2-4 trades and get rid of the clutter and improve the positional talent, fine..Waiting was no harm, no foul.

I don't blame him for waiting some time to see if one of the other big 4 would be included and I am not even saying he should have jumped at Butler and the other 3 immediately...But by the time you got around Xmas and the first of the year, it was time to get moving.

No doubt in my mind that this trade could have been completed at least a month ago.

I also think he wanted to see what happened with Santana too. He wanted more teams involved. It sounds like the Indians threw their hat in there for a minute after Santana was gone... but it looks like it's Seattle or bust.

I don't blame him holding out, but he should have been making smaller moves on the side while he was waiting. It kills me that WAS got Dukes and Milledge for almost nothing when we could have easily done similar deals to get them.

[PaulFolk]

If Mora was going to go to the Phils, he would be gone already IMO.

This isn't true.

This reply doesn't make sense. How can you possibly know this?

[ON BASE %]

His trends continued. His strikeout rate has gone from 5.4 to 4.8 to 3.2 the last three years.

His walk rate continued to decline over the same period from 2.8 to 4.26 to 4.33. And his command rate had a related decline. His 2007 K:BB ratio was the worst of any pitcher (125+ innings) since 1975.

I don't see any indicators that show Trachsel improving last year or next year.

Ouch! And to think we actually received Moore and Cherry for Traschel. But I am in your camp on this one. Let's quit while we're ahead with Traschel.

[Sports Guy]

This reply doesn't make sense. How can you possibly know this?

Because AM has held back doing other moves to see what he gets for Bedard.

[Sports Guy]

You don't know this at all. You're guessing again and acting like it is fact. If a poll was conducted around MLB about this question, the answer your promoting would lose by a landslide IMO.

There is no doubt that Hughes was on the table and then taken off.

Gammons said the other day that hughes, Melky and Marquez were on the table.

Remember, the Twins said they wanted Kennedy as the third player with Hughes and MCab.

[PaulFolk]

Because AM has held back doing other moves to see what he gets for Bedard.

We've heard speculation that he's holding off on trading Roberts before the Bedard deal is done. We haven't heard that he's holding off on trading everybody else. If any teams had popped in with decent offers for the likes of Mora, Huff, Payton, etc. over the past few months, I think he'd pull the trigger.

Also, is there anything to suggest that the Phillies were interested in Mora? I don't remember seeing any reports to that effect.

[Sports Guy]

Actually BRob has a lot to do with Bedard. Since BRob is bringing multiple prospects like Bedard, we need to fit them a bit. Mora doesn't have that issue.

Don't compare the BRob situation to the Mora situation. They are only connected in your mind.

Who cares what BRob brings you in relation to Bedard? Get the talent and sort it out later.

[Sports Guy]

We've heard speculation that he's holding off on trading Roberts before the Bedard deal is done. We haven't heard that he's holding off on trading everybody else. If any teams had popped in with decent offers for the likes of Mora, Huff, Payton, etc. over the past few months, I think he'd pull the trigger.

Speculation I was hearing is different than what is being reported.

Also, is there anything to suggest that the Phillies were interested in Mora? I don't remember seeing any reports to that effect.

Belkast said the Phillies were interested.

[Shopay]

No I don't have any idea...But I know what we wanted and that a guy like Butler would have been a reasonable common ground.

Face it, whether anyone wants to say it or not, AM held out in hopes that Wlad, Morrow, Clement or Triunfel would be added to Tillman, Jones and Sherrill. That is what he wanted and he didn't get it. So, his gamble of holding out MAY have cost him the chance to do other things. Now, when i say that, i am saying that because of the stated reason of wanting to see what happens with bedard before deciding what to do with everyone else. If AM is able to still make another 2-4 trades and get rid of the clutter and improve the positional talent, fine..Waiting was no harm, no foul.

I don't blame him for waiting some time to see if one of the other big 4 would be included and I am not even saying he should have jumped at Butler and the other 3 immediately...But by the time you got around Xmas and the first of the year, it was time to get moving.

No doubt in my mind that this trade could have been completed at least a month ago.

SG, from experience (I have been involved in plenty of negotiations, and perhaps you have as well, I don't know), if you have reasonably good negotiators on both sides (I expect both AM and Bavasi fall into this category), it always take a while to get to that common ground. I've been involved in numerous mediations that have varied in their scheduled length, and rarely, and I mean rarely, have those matters been settled until late on the final day. I've gone into many of these knowing where it should settle, but parties/people tend to hold on to their bottom line until the "midnight hour." Further, a true deadline absolutely helps drive settlement/agreement, and here, there wasn't a true deadline, other than what the teams arbitrarily decided was the date. And I believe for both teams, this date was closer to Janaury 31, then any date in December. If this deal had been negotiated around the July 31st trade deadline, I would agree with your premise that the deal could have been finalized within a few days, but the difference there is you have a true trade deadline forcing bottom line offers. Anyway, I don't have anymore to say on this topic -- we are just going to have to agree to disagree.