Just So We're Clear, Just Getting To The Playoffs Is No Longer Good Enough.

[Can_of_corn]

1. Let's wait to see who is on teams' rosters next spring before speculating as to how the Orioles compare, on paper, to the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Jays, let alone the other 25 clubs.

2. Being among the favorites to win the AL East means something: those who follow baseball for a living (or as a passion), some of whom actually know things about the game and think rationally and effectively about it, have evaluated your team, before injuries, mid-season moves and call-ups, as among the strongest of five strong teams. Being "among the favorites to win it all" means very little, beyond the impact on fans' emotions and expectations.

The model Fangraphs and others use won't care that they won 96 games last season. They don't like how the O's team is constructed and I am sure that they will still view the O's as a second division team.

[El Gordo]

The O's still could use a couple of guys who can get on base more than 35% of the time and a SP who wouldn't shock you if he pitched pitch a CG SO every once in a while.

[mdbdotcom]

Anyone who thinks the Orioles have "nothing to show" for this season might fit in better as a Yankee fan.

It was a great season. We ran into a team on fire. Happens.

[Bert Orange]

I'll take winning the division any season as a huge mark of success. Especially the AL East. You aren't going to win any major sport's championship with regularity unless you buy your victories. And even then, there is a lot of luck involved. I sure hope we can look at this season as nothing less than a huge win for our team and the direction it is headed is nothing short of encouraging. Especially given what we had to overcome this year.

[PeteU]

I'll take winning the division any season as a huge mark of success. Especially the AL East. You aren't going to win any major sport's championship with regularity unless you buy your victories. And even then, there is a lot of luck involved. I sure hope we can look at this season as nothing less than a huge win for our team and the direction it is headed is nothing short of encouraging. Especially given what we had to overcome this year.

Even the Yankees gravy train ended eventually.

[DrungoHazewood]

Fangraphs debunked your #3 last week.

Also, tango and Bill James had a brief back-and-forth on James' website explaining how teams with higher ISO do better in the lower run environements of the playoffs.

[WNY Orioles Fan]

I understand the randomness of the playoffs, but I'm not sure I can agree 100% with your last sentence. I do think there are some qualities that a team can have that help them more in the playoffs than in the regular season.

1) Depth doesn't help you as much in the playoffs as it does in the regular season. Having a good bench helps you over the long haul of a 162 game season as you are able to plug in guys when guys have days off, injuries, etc., that can help you. Look how guys like Parades & Lough contributed in the regular season but in the playoffs, where you only have a few games and there are scattered off days, they were barely needed. KC had very little on their bench but it didn't hurt them. Their backup C never played. I don't think they ever used a backup infielder. They used two pinch runners and that was it. The Orioles had success in the regular season due to their ability to effectively have a 30+ man roster and use those guys to their fullest. I have no doubt that our ability to get contributions out of 35 or more players during the season helped us win 96 games. In the postseason, we used basically 11 hitters, 4 starters, and for the most part just 6 relievers (Matusz only pitched in an extra inning game we were already losing).

2) Having 3 to 4 really good relievers is magnified in the postseason, where they can play nearly every game due to the days off. KC had that. We had it for much of the season but our guys couldn't quite do the job in the ALCS, and that made a huge difference.

3) And I do think there is something to be said for the possibility that teams that rely heavily on the HR to score runs will not do as well in the postseason. You are facing pitchers who give up fewer HRs (because they are better pitchers). When you do hit HRs, there will be fewer men on base, because the pitchers are good. If your key to winning games is the 3-run HR, you are a lot less likely to get them when you are facing playoff quality pitching staffs. Not just because they are already among the 10 best pitching staffs, most likely. But you will be seeing only the 3 or 4 best starters on the staff, and, in close games, only the 3 or 4 best relievers (barring an 18 inning game like SF/Wash). So you are seeing the best of the best, and you are a lot less likely to hit 3-run HRs.

Yes, obviously random chance is a huge factor. But I think there ARE ways that a team can be better suited to perform in the playoffs than in the regular season. I'm not saying you should go out and construct your team that way, because the baseball season is a grueling marathon and you have to make the playoffs first. But I feel that some teams have an advantage in the playoffs:

1) Teams that are less dependent on bench guys and have strong starting lineups top to bottom.

2) Teams with 3 or 4 really, really good relievers

3) Teams that are not dependent on the HR to score runs

We only fit one of those criteria, #2, and we ran into a team that was even better at that than we were, that also had #1 and #3. And then on top of that, they got every damn break.

Great post. This was the best post I ever saw on this site. THIS is what a lot of these guys don't understand. I think we have a team that will probably win the AL East next year especially with Weets and Machado. But are we a good playoff team? I'm not sure.

Since we're now a winning team, just getting to the playoffs shouldn't be good enough.

[Spy Fox]

I can see wanting to raise the bar for a successful season, being that we've been good for three years now and look like we will hopefully be good for at least a couple more.

But the baseball playoffs are so small sample size you basically can't operate on a World Series or bust expectation. It's not the NBA where it only takes a few players to stack a team and the best team almost always wins.

[VeveJones007]

I can see wanting to raise the bar for a successful season, being that we've been good for three years now and look like we will hopefully be good for at least a couple more.

But the baseball playoffs are so small sample size you basically can't operate on a World Series or bust expectation. It's not the NBA where it only takes a few players to stack a team and the best team almost always wins.

Another really good response. Basketball is unique because you can put the ball in Lebron's hands every play and put him on the other team's best player. In baseball, everyone has to bat and field, and you only pitch your best a small % of the time.

Another point regarding the OP: I am not fully satisfied with anything short of a championship. That being said, I appreciate that there is too much variance and luck in play to say that any team fell short by losing in the postseason. It's irresponsible to set expectations that high.

[ShaneDawg85]

Last time I checked, you don't get a chance to win it all if you don't get to the playoffs first. We're not in a position like the Yankees with their history. Heck, we're not even in a position like the Atlanta Braves winning the division for over a decade straight with only one title to show for it. When you've reached that level of success, it's understandable to expect or want more. We're not anywhere close to that, even in our heyday aside from 69-74 we weren't close to that, and when the alternative is spending year after year in baseball purgatory, I'll take making the playoffs and coming up short every single time, no matter how much it hurts. Making the playoffs is always good enough in my book. Always.

[DrungoHazewood]

Great post. This was the best post I ever saw on this site. THIS is what a lot of these guys don't understand. I think we have a team that will probably win the AL East next year especially with Weets and Machado. But are we a good playoff team? I'm not sure.

Since we're now a winning team, just getting to the playoffs shouldn't be good enough.

I know a lot of people don't want to believe it, but the difference between a good playoff team and a bad playoff team is maybe a few percentage points on the odds of winning the Series on the opening day of the playoffs. In today's playoff setup the 1927 Yanks would have about a 1-in-4 chance of winning the whole thing on the opening day of the ALDS.

[atomic]

A winning season is enough for me. 14 straight losing seasons makes me be happy with less. If all that will make you happy is the World Series victories you might as well not even watch. Being in cotention most of the year is the most important thing. I just don't want to be out of the hunt at the all-star break.

It is the journey not the destination.

[TiredofLosing20]

We didn't win a championship because the FO didn't talk about it as their goal enough...

[atomic]

Ah, how quickly we, as fans, forget.

The poster didn't join until they made the playoffs in 2012. Maybe they weren't a fan of the team until the winning begain.

[DrungoHazewood]

We didn't win a championship because the FO didn't talk about it as their goal enough...

I heard Jim Presley was satisfied with winning the ALDS, so the hitters just dialed it back against the Royals. They're hopeless in the face of his mind control shenanigans.