Just So We're Clear, Just Getting To The Playoffs Is No Longer Good Enough.

[OFFNY]

meh. I've been a die hard O's fan sine the 70's when I was old enough to understand what winning vs losing means. I support the OP. It never hurts to have lofty goals. Yes, we quickly forget what endless losing seasons are like, but we have also, slowly like a frog in a pot coming to boil, forgotten what its like to have a baseball program that regularly competes for championships. And championships are what we as fans need to demand. Shoot for the stars every year and one time we may land on the moon. Shoot for the moon and sometimes we may get close (like this year).

How exactly are we, as fans, supposed to "demand" these championships?

[jtm]

3 years ago we were celebrating that the Os not only avoided a 100 loss season, we were celebrating that they ended the season over .500 in the final 50 or so games, and knocked the Red Sox out in the final game of the season. The fact that we are seriously debating whether a championship is the only acceptable result to measure the success of a season is a huge testimonial to Buck and DD (if not MacPhail.) I just watched the Buck presser finally, and honestly, I feel for him. While I'm upset at the result, my life will go on. For him, he and the players feel the brunt of it. And honestly, it felt like he wants a championship even more for his players and fans than the players and fans do themselves. I really hope he gets that. I honestly feel worse about this ending more for him than anyone. Hats off to Buck. He has truly resurrected this organization, so much so that we are now not only expecting playoffs, some feel shortchanged by losing the ALCS.

[JR Oriole]

Ned Yost (!!!!) got to a World Series on his first attempt in the playoffs. And Buck has been trying how long? At least when Bob Brenly made his silly run, he went through managers that had already won titles. MAN, this game is cruel. You like to think you pay your dues and earn your way to the top via the slow climb. Not always I suppose.

[brooks1083]

3 years ago we were celebrating that the Os not only avoided a 100 loss season, we were celebrating that they ended the season over .500 in the final 50 or so games, and knocked the Red Sox out in the final game of the season

It's funny you mention the Red Sox thing in 2011. I can still remember watching that game and jumping up and down like we won the World Series. My how things have changed in such a short time.

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[DrungoHazewood]

We've been.good for 3 years in a row and made the postseason in 2 of those years and have nothing to show for it. This year we made it to the ALCS. I think.most were just happy to get this far. Next year, we might be among the favorites to win it all. I don't see why not.

If we come up short again, will there be more anger coming from Oriole fans? Will fans start calling for changes?

There is nothing that separates a good regular season record from playoff success. Besides getting breaks at the right time.

You can't build for the playoffs besides just being good.

[Phantom]

I completely disagree. Getting to the playoffs should be our goal next year. What happens there is always fluky. Just ask the A's.

[Can_of_corn]

I completely disagree. Getting to the playoffs should be our goal next year. What happens there is always fluky. Just ask the A's.

Exactly. You make the goal winning the WS and all of a sudden you start buying really high to get incremental advantages.

[VeveJones007]

Playoffs are and always will be a crapshoot.

Exactly. The variance in a small sample size is so extreme that it really isn't worth the angst. All we can ask is that they put themselves in position to have a roll of the die.

[DrungoHazewood]

Exactly. You make the goal winning the WS and all of a sudden you start buying really high to get incremental advantages.

Let's say you want to win it all. And you build a team that puts the '27 Yanks to shame. A team that has a 70% chance of winning any particular playoff series. You go through three round of playoffs. .7 * .7 * .7 = .343. Your 120-win superteam has a 34% chance of winning the World Series on day one of the ALDS. That's up from 12.5% for a generic playoff team.

There is nothing you can do to give you better than about a 1-in-3 chance of winning the Series once you've gotten into the playoffs. Nothing.

[SteveA]

There is nothing that separates a good regular season record from playoff success. Besides getting breaks at the right time.

You can't build for the playoffs besides just being good.

I understand the randomness of the playoffs, but I'm not sure I can agree 100% with your last sentence. I do think there are some qualities that a team can have that help them more in the playoffs than in the regular season.

1) Depth doesn't help you as much in the playoffs as it does in the regular season. Having a good bench helps you over the long haul of a 162 game season as you are able to plug in guys when guys have days off, injuries, etc., that can help you. Look how guys like Parades & Lough contributed in the regular season but in the playoffs, where you only have a few games and there are scattered off days, they were barely needed. KC had very little on their bench but it didn't hurt them. Their backup C never played. I don't think they ever used a backup infielder. They used two pinch runners and that was it. The Orioles had success in the regular season due to their ability to effectively have a 30+ man roster and use those guys to their fullest. I have no doubt that our ability to get contributions out of 35 or more players during the season helped us win 96 games. In the postseason, we used basically 11 hitters, 4 starters, and for the most part just 6 relievers (Matusz only pitched in an extra inning game we were already losing).

2) Having 3 to 4 really good relievers is magnified in the postseason, where they can play nearly every game due to the days off. KC had that. We had it for much of the season but our guys couldn't quite do the job in the ALCS, and that made a huge difference.

3) And I do think there is something to be said for the possibility that teams that rely heavily on the HR to score runs will not do as well in the postseason. You are facing pitchers who give up fewer HRs (because they are better pitchers). When you do hit HRs, there will be fewer men on base, because the pitchers are good. If your key to winning games is the 3-run HR, you are a lot less likely to get them when you are facing playoff quality pitching staffs. Not just because they are already among the 10 best pitching staffs, most likely. But you will be seeing only the 3 or 4 best starters on the staff, and, in close games, only the 3 or 4 best relievers (barring an 18 inning game like SF/Wash). So you are seeing the best of the best, and you are a lot less likely to hit 3-run HRs.

Yes, obviously random chance is a huge factor. But I think there ARE ways that a team can be better suited to perform in the playoffs than in the regular season. I'm not saying you should go out and construct your team that way, because the baseball season is a grueling marathon and you have to make the playoffs first. But I feel that some teams have an advantage in the playoffs:

1) Teams that are less dependent on bench guys and have strong starting lineups top to bottom.

2) Teams with 3 or 4 really, really good relievers

3) Teams that are not dependent on the HR to score runs

We only fit one of those criteria, #2, and we ran into a team that was even better at that than we were, that also had #1 and #3. And then on top of that, they got every damn break.

[Sanfran327]

I think the message is a little more complex than that. To me, I'm upset by this loss because we were't able to fully take advantage of the down year from the "traditional AL East powers". While I think we have a VERY positive outlook for 2015-2018 at the very least, I think we'll struggle to get into that 92-96 win range again. While we'll be a good, competitive team for the next several years, whether or not we can make another deep postseason run is TBD.

So yeah, the circumstances this year crossed the threshold from "glad to be here" into "lofty expectations". The Royals, OTOH, are still playing with house money.

[DrungoHazewood]

I understand the randomness of the playoffs, but I'm not sure I can agree 100% with your last sentence. I do think there are some qualities that a team can have that help them more in the playoffs than in the regular season.

1) Depth doesn't help you as much in the playoffs as it does in the regular season. Having a good bench helps you over the long haul of a 162 game season as you are able to plug in guys when guys have days off, injuries, etc., that can help you. Look how guys like Parades & Lough contributed in the regular season but in the playoffs, where you only have a few games and there are scattered off days, they were barely needed. KC had very little on their bench but it didn't hurt them. Their backup C never played. I don't think they ever used a backup infielder. They used two pinch runners and that was it. The Orioles had success in the regular season due to their ability to effectively have a 30+ man roster and use those guys to their fullest. I have no doubt that our ability to get contributions out of 35 or more players during the season helped us win 96 games. In the postseason, we used basically 11 hitters, 4 starters, and for the most part just 6 relievers (Matusz only pitched in an extra inning game we were already losing).

2) Having 3 to 4 really good relievers is magnified in the postseason, where they can play nearly every game due to the days off. KC had that. We had it for much of the season but our guys couldn't quite do the job in the ALCS, and that made a huge difference.

3) And I do think there is something to be said for the possibility that teams that rely heavily on the HR to score runs will not do as well in the postseason. You are facing pitchers who give up fewer HRs (because they are better pitchers). When you do hit HRs, there will be fewer men on base, because the pitchers are good. If your key to winning games is the 3-run HR, you are a lot less likely to get them when you are facing playoff quality pitching staffs. Not just because they are already among the 10 best pitching staffs, most likely. But you will be seeing only the 3 or 4 best starters on the staff, and, in close games, only the 3 or 4 best relievers (barring an 18 inning game like SF/Wash). So you are seeing the best of the best, and you are a lot less likely to hit 3-run HRs.

Yes, obviously random chance is a huge factor. But I think there ARE ways that a team can be better suited to perform in the playoffs than in the regular season. I'm not saying you should go out and construct your team that way, because the baseball season is a grueling marathon and you have to make the playoffs first. But I feel that some teams have an advantage in the playoffs:

1) Teams that are less dependent on bench guys and have strong starting lineups top to bottom.

2) Teams with 3 or 4 really, really good relievers

3) Teams that are not dependent on the HR to score runs

We only fit one of those criteria, #2, and we ran into a team that was even better at that than we were, that also had #1 and #3. And then on top of that, they got every damn break.

Doing all of those things probably pushes you up from 12% chance of winning the Series to 15% or 20%. You still have a 80+% chance of going home disappointed.

[Can_of_corn]

Fangraphs debunked your #3 last week.

[spiritof66]

. . . Next year, we might be among the favorites to win it all. I don't see why not. . . .

1. Let's wait to see who is on teams' rosters next spring before speculating as to how the Orioles compare, on paper, to the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Jays, let alone the other 25 clubs.

2. Being among the favorites to win the AL East means something: those who follow baseball for a living (or as a passion), some of whom actually know things about the game and think rationally and effectively about it, have evaluated your team, before injuries, mid-season moves and call-ups, as among the strongest of five strong teams. Being "among the favorites to win it all" means very little, beyond the impact on fans' emotions and expectations.

[Ironbirds]

What do you mean not good enough? Takes allot of work and luck to get where they got to. I am very happy how this season turned out. Sometimes you can do everything right and still loose. That is not failure that is life. To go to a World Series let alone win one, requires a bit of luck on top of everything else.

Right now Kansas City has a giant Horseshoe up their butts. When that horseshoe gets pulled out it is going to be ugly for their fans.

I would still rather have our team and our Farm System.