The Player DD Should Trade For That Can Put Us in The WS in 2015

[weams]

I'm always wary of batting average-driven value spikes. Sure, it's possible he's really a .340 hitting going forward. But almost no one is that year-in, year-out. The four years after George Brett hit .390 he never topped .314. Darin Erstad and Norm Cash each has mammoth seasons driven by ~100 point BA spikes, and neither ever hit .300 again. Jose Reyes hit .337 the year he won a batting title, never has come within 37 points of that in any other year. Willie McGee won batting titles at .353 and .335, but his 3rd-best season was .312. Derrek Lee's career was three segments - through 2004 he hit .266, in 2005 he hit .335, from 2006-on he hit .289.

Altuve's BABIP prior to '14 was about .315. In 2014 it was .360.

Melvin Mora. Pay the Man.

[Can_of_corn]

Melvin Mora. Pay the Man.

It is always nice when Drungo follows behind me and does the heavy lifting with the facts. Well I mean it is nice when his facts support my view. The other times it isn't as nice.

I had really meant to check his BABIP.

[weams]

It is always nice when Drungo follows behind me and does the heavy lifting with the facts. Well I mean it is nice when his facts support my view. The other times it isn't as nice.

I had really meant to check his BABIP.

That's why we keep him. And revere him.

[weams]

I'm always wary of batting average-driven value spikes. Sure, it's possible he's really a .340 hitting going forward. But almost no one is that year-in, year-out. The four years after George Brett hit .390 he never topped .314. Darin Erstad and Norm Cash each has mammoth seasons driven by ~100 point BA spikes, and neither ever hit .300 again. Jose Reyes hit .337 the year he won a batting title, never has come within 37 points of that in any other year. Willie McGee won batting titles at .353 and .335, but his 3rd-best season was .312. Derrek Lee's career was three segments - through 2004 he hit .266, in 2005 he hit .335, from 2006-on he hit .289.

Altuve's BABIP prior to '14 was about .315. In 2014 it was .360.

You were probably one of the folks that did not think that Choo was a perennial .475 OBP guy too. You know how to deflate an off season's wish list.

[Guest rochester]

I'm always wary of batting average-driven value spikes. Sure, it's possible he's really a .340 hitting going forward. But almost no one is that year-in, year-out. The four years after George Brett hit .390 he never topped .314. Darin Erstad and Norm Cash each has mammoth seasons driven by ~100 point BA spikes, and neither ever hit .300 again. Jose Reyes hit .337 the year he won a batting title, never has come within 37 points of that in any other year. Willie McGee won batting titles at .353 and .335, but his 3rd-best season was .312. Derrek Lee's career was three segments - through 2004 he hit .266, in 2005 he hit .335, from 2006-on he hit .289.

Altuve's BABIP prior to '14 was about .315. In 2014 it was .360.

Wouldn't allow another rep for you but the Willie McGee reference is deserving.

[Can_of_corn]

He's a 24 year old second basemen who won the batting title with a legitimately minuscule K% in the highest K% environment in decades (if not ever), and with great speed. He's better than Schoop right now and there's a good chance he's better than Schoop will ever be. We already have plenty of home runs. You build your team out of the best players you can find and that's all. Not that we'll ever get Altuve, but arguing that he's worth less than Schoop right now is ridiculous.

There were five whole 20/20 guys in the majors in 2014. They're a virtually-dead breed right now. Great targets for fantasy baseball, much less so in real life.

Altuve also hit 47 doubles last year. Speed can generate "slugging".

Schoop was as good (slightly better actually) at 22.

Now if your argument is Schoop isn't like to put up a 6 win season then you have a good chance.

Altuve's OPS+ by year.

81

101

89

134.

That isn't someone to bet the farm on.

[Reboulet'sStache]

You were probably one of the folks that did not think that Choo was a perennial .475 OBP guy too. You know how to deflate an off season's wish list.

Did Choo have a high BABIP?

[Can_of_corn]

Did Choo have a high BABIP?

Choo had a high HBP.

[atomic]

Pretty much- the package would probably have to start with Schoop and Gausman, and it would need to include several other legitimate prospects.

Our farm system is getting better, and my faith in its ability to produce quality Major League players on a semi-regular basis has been restored, but we're still a long ways off from being able to pry premier players still firmly entrenched in their prime years away from other teams without severely diminishing our ability to remain competitive as our current players leave/decline over the next 3-5 years or so.

A barren farm system(which would almost certainly be the end result of trading for a guy of Altuve's caliber/stature) is generally a pretty accurate barometer of a franchise's forecast in the not-so-distant future(IOW: *shake shake* "Outlook Not So Good").

Unless you're the Yankees or Dodgers, of course.

The Astros have pitching and I don't know what throwing in a guy with a .598 oPS does for a deal.

[brianod]

He's a 24 year old second basemen who won the batting title with a legitimately minuscule K% in the highest K% environment in decades (if not ever), and with great speed. He's better than Schoop right now and there's a good chance he's better than Schoop will ever be. We already have plenty of home runs. You build your team out of the best players you can find and that's all. Not that we'll ever get Altuve, but arguing that he's worth less than Schoop right now is ridiculous.

There were five whole 20/20 guys in the majors in 2014. They're a virtually-dead breed right now. Great targets for fantasy baseball, much less so in real life.

Altuve also hit 47 doubles last year. Speed can generate "slugging".

I never said Schoop was better now, I said he is a better fit. What I didn't say but might make it clearer is that the cost of what Altuve would entail is no where close to the benefit he would provide. Also, assuming he continues like last year after three mediocre years is a big assumption. If Schoop fulfills his potential, he's better than Altuve. If he doesn't, him and the players needed to trade for Altuve are better for the Orioles.

[Loophole]

Schoop was as good (slightly better actually) at 22.

Now if your argument is Schoop isn't like to put up a 6 win season then you have a good chance.

Altuve's OPS+ by year.

81

101

89

134.

That isn't someone to bet the farm on.

For one thing, no one's betting the farm on Altuve. This is never going to happen and there's only one person here who seems to think it's a possibility.

Second, Altuve's K% over the years:

12.4

11.7

12.6

7.5

That's big. A jump down to the second-lowest K% in the league, which is not an unreliable stat. Here's an article examining the changes he's made.

Jose Altuve has had a remarkable season, because he?s racked up more hits than every single player in the major leagues. The way he?s done it is unique, but it makes sense. It would be easy to point to his .365 BABIP and scream ?regression!? but there?s more to it than that. You look at Altuve?s improved discipline, you look at his aggressiveness and subsequent success on first pitches, you look at his speed and resulting infield hits, and you look at his ability to shoot the ball up the middle and you see a guy who might win more batting titles than just the one he?s already got locked up this year.

[brianod]

For one thing, no one's betting the farm on Altuve. This is never going to happen and there's only one person here who seems to think it's a possibility.

Second, Altuve's K% over the years:

12.4

11.7

12.6

7.5

That's big. A jump down to the second-lowest K% in the league, which is not an unreliable stat. Here's an article examining the changes he's made.

A 1/4 from Schoop can be as good as a 3/4 from Altuve. A 3 run bomb that goes 365 ft at Camden yards can be better than 3 singles and a well hit flyout.

[Can_of_corn]

For one thing, no one's betting the farm on Altuve. This is never going to happen and there's only one person here who seems to think it's a possibility.

Second, Altuve's K% over the years:

12.4

11.7

12.6

7.5

That's big. A jump down to the second-lowest K% in the league, which is not an unreliable stat. Here's an article examining the changes he's made.

Simmons was 24 with an 8.4% KRate in 2013. How did his 2014 turn out?

[Loophole]

Simmons was 24 with an 8.4% KRate in 2013. How did his 2014 turn out?

I'll make sure to keep that whopping sample size of 1 in mind.

I also have no idea how Simmons is comparable. He changed his process in 2014 and became a worse hitter (mostly because his power was zapped...) while Altuve changed his process and became a better hitter. They're probably not gonna mess with Altuve's process anymore, having found something that clearly works. Obviously his K% isn't gonna be exactly the same every year, but he made changes and it'll stick to a lower range -- maybe even dropping further! -- for the time being. Wanna bring this back up five years from now I'll eat my hat if I have to, but right now there's no reason to assume he'll suddenly go back to the way he was before.

Also in that article I posted were 3 factors besides his plate discipline that have contributed to his success in 2014.

[O's84]

Should we really be trading the farm for someone who is as peak value because of a career year? Doesn't seem like the way to go.