Roch: O's focused on adding LH reliever

[El Gordo]

I see no reason to label Bud as a #4 starter. Yes he averages 6 innings a start but that times 32 starts is 192 IP. I see no reason Bud can't do that at his 3.65 ERA. That's a pretty good starter. Would he sign a two or three year extension? Its worth a try.

If Jimenez increases his value before the trade deadline next year I would trade him in a salary dump. I would much rather have Bud and Ubaldo. Chen will be gone after 2015 so there will be rotation changes.

Because he had a career year andstill only had 165 IP in 28 GS with a 38 % QS. The much maligned Gonzo, that everyone wants in the bullpen, had a 61 % QS in about the same number of IP and a lower ERA.

[wildcard]

Because he had a career year andstill only had 165 IP in 28 GS with a 38 % QS. The much maligned Gonzo, that everyone wants in the bullpen, had a 61 % QS in about the same number of IP and a lower ERA.

Gonzo is a stud in my book. The only reason that Gonzo might get pushed to the pen is because he is versatile. He can start or relieve and do either very well. That is not a slam on Gonzo its a compliment.

Norris started 31 games in 2011 and pitched 186 inning to a ERA of 3.77 for a losing team. That is one start short of what I was talking about. In 2014 he gave up less hits than innings pitched and had a 1.22 WHIP. I think Wallace has helped him with a extra pitch that could make him even better next year.

[wildcard]

It's great how you can multiply and get 192 innings, even though Norris has never reached that mark in his career. Last year he pitched 165. He was worth 1.9 WAR. Miguel Gonzaelz was worth 2.1 and pitched 159. Could the Orioles extend Norris? It's possible, but I would be surprised if they tie up money in another pitcher when they don't have to.

There will be rotation changes. One possible rotation for 2016. 1. Tillman 2. Gausman 3. Jimenez 4. M. Gonzalez 5. Bundy

Of course, the O's could always slap a QO on Norris for Chen for one year and possibly retain one or either that way. Who knows what they get on the open market in one year. Another good reason not to extend. Injury? Regression? Don't have to.

I only want Ubaldo as a Oriole long enough to build his value so DD can trade him in a salary dump. He was a mistake to sign. Yes, the O's needed another starter at the beginning of year but they didn't need to go 4 years. Hindsight on my part. Sure. But I don't want him around for 3 more years.

I'll take Norris over Ubaldo.

[Number5]

I wonder if the Reds would consider moving Tony Cingrani, and what it would take. They sent him down last year, and there look to be 5 guys ahead of him in the rotation. He's got a heck of a fastball, but as I understand it, he's pretty much a 1-pitch guy. That 1 pitch may work well one inning at a time out of the bullpen. Just spit-balling. What do you think?

[CaptainRedbeard]

I would love to add Zach Duke. He was absolutely LETHAL last year. 1.3 fWAR, 11.35 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9, 57.7 GB%. Platoon neutral lefty/righty too, which is what we want: .258 wOBA vs. LH, .262 vs. RH.

To top that all off, he's not old (only 31) and will not demand a big contract because he was horrible his entire career before last year. It looks like adding a cutter and dropping the changeup made him a much, much better pitcher. If he's even a shadow of what he was in 2014 he'd be a great addition.

Andrew Miller was incredible last year, but not really any year before that. Zack Duke did the exact same thing but did it with a 90 mph fastball. How much cheaper is that going to make him as a free agent?

[brianod]

Trading a starter for a setup man is a ridiculous strategy. Pay Miller if you value setup men that much.

[brianod]

One good year is all it takes. Boone Logan got a 3/16.5M contract last year. With the demand for LHP, I'd think Duke can get that type of contract. His season last year was better than anything Logan had ever done.

Let someone else pay it. With a 90mph fastball, I sense regressing to the norm big time.

[sportsfan8703]

If we were going to give that to Duke we minus well just give Miller 3/24.

[weams]

If we were going to give that to Duke we minus well just give Miller 3/24.

If Miller only gets that I would be quite surprised. Besides. We are not pursuing Miller.

[wildcard]

You don't think Jimenez will be any good but you think he'll be good for the 1st half next year (even though you always mention how bad he is in April) and then we can trade him after he's built his value. That's the plan?

Yup, Ubaldo in the pen in April, starts from May through July and he is traded at the deadline. His ERA was good in May and June last year. He is just too expensive and his style of pitching is too slow to play good defense behind him.

[neveradoubt]

Bastardo[Phillies]

[CaptainRedbeard]

One good year is all it takes. Boone Logan got a 3/16.5M contract last year. With the demand for LHP, I'd think Duke can get that type of contract. His season last year was better than anything Logan had ever done.

Logan was a solid/reliable reliever for 4 years before free agency, I see the point you're trying to make (left relievers get paid well), but he's not a perfect comparable.

Boone Logan was also widely regarded to be an overpay...Javier Lopez got 3/13 and J.P. Howell got 2/11.25. We even had Oliver Perez doing something similar to what Duke did (resurrecting his career out of nowhere out of the pen) and only got 2/4.25.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Duke opt for a 1yr deal to set himself up for free agency with two good years behind him, or look for security in years at a relatively low AAV, both of which would be good value IMO.

If Miller's market is something like 4/32-4/36, then Duke might cost 50% of that contract but provide 80% of the value.

We know the Orioles want a lefty who can hold his own vs. righties and who can keep the ball in the yard / on the ground (the anti-Matusz). Duke fits that perfectly. I'm sure he's on their radar.

[brianod]

I go back to a 90mph fastball, Miller has nasty stuff, Duke has nasty stats for one year

[CaptainRedbeard]

I go back to a 90mph fastball, Miller has nasty stuff, Duke has nasty stats for one year

That's why Miller will get paid more...which is the point I was making. Miller also has nasty stats for only one year, but he's more appealing because he looks dominant on the mound and was great in down the stretch and in the postseason. Duke isn't as good as Miller, but he'll likely cost substantially less and not be substantially worse.

Luke Gregerson, Koji Uehara, Sergio Romo, and Darren O'day all throw as slow or slower than Duke, does that make them bad relievers? With the exception of Romo, they all throw their fastballs about as frequently as Duke did last year. They succeed with command, offspeed pitches, and deception. It works for starters and it works for relievers as well.

[Crazysilver03]

Great post. This is also a spot to target a lefty in the rule 5 draft. Matusz is getting non tendered. Personally I'd like to see Hunter traded and using the Matusz and Hunter savings to go toward Miller. DD is going to do his usual thing and bring in a bunch of relievers on minor league deals. We already have McCoy, Chris Jones, and Gurka in the system. I don't know if Additon and De La Cruz are back/going to be back. Brad Mills or Bruce Chen could be good candidates for a non guaranteed ST invite.

I know you were just throwing examples out but Mills signed with the Athletics already.

But Chris Jones is a good idea at someone to try.