O's 2015 Estimated Payroll

[AlbionHero]

Giving somebody a starting spot for 1 good year is a mistake.

I think sitting a potential impact player on the bench instead of giving him a chance is a bigger mistake. What if the Jays thought Jose Bautista was a one year wonder and just benched him?

[wildcard]

I think the O's will add a DH or OFer.

I agree that Pearce deserves the chance to get 500 at at bats. DD has to have a contingency plan in case he can't do it.

[mdbdotcom]

Giving somebody a starting spot for 1 good year is a mistake.

Whoever earns the spot plays.

[AlbionHero]

I think the O's will add a DH or OFer.

I agree that Pearce deserves the chance to get 500 at at bats. DD has to have a contingency plan in case he can't do it.

He always gets all of his depth guys, so I have no worry there. But to me, Pearce is the starting LF barring an injury or some huge signing. De Aza and Lough will fight for the RF job and they'll get a right handed platoon partner.

[wildcard]

He always gets all of his depth guys, so I have no worry there. But to me, Pearce is the starting LF barring an injury or some huge signing. De Aza and Lough will fight for the RF job and they'll get a right handed platoon partner.

Hassan?

[wildcard]

I think once the O's see Alvarez's arm in ST, he will be fast tracked. Kind of like Schoop.

[fearthenoodle]

I've posted this before, but I will again.

From 2012 (~$84MM payroll) to 2013 (~$92MM), payroll increased 9.6%.

From 2013 to 2014 (~$107MM), payroll increased 16.5%.

Taking those numbers and assuming the ability to increase payroll at least 9% and possibly as much as 15% again, and you get a range of $117MM to $125MM for next year.

I would say $120-130MM is probably a fairly safe target range, considering revenues from this year should have been higher than the previous two years.

[wildcard]

I've posted this before, but I will again.

From 2012 (~$84MM payroll) to 2013 (~$92MM), payroll increased 9.6%.

From 2013 to 2014 (~$107MM), payroll increased 16.5%.

Taking those numbers and assuming the ability to increase payroll at least 9% and possibly as much as 15% again, and you get a range of $117MM to $125MM for next year.

I would say $120-130MM is probably a fairly safe target range, considering revenues from this year should have been higher than the previous two years.

Attendance

2012 (2,102k) to 2013 (2,357k) = 255K or 12% increase

2013 (2,357k) to 2014 (2,464K) = 107K or 4.5% increase

Revenue increase was not as big in 2014.

[wildcard]

A great arm is not enough to get a player fast tracked.

Sure helped Schoop. Along with good defense.

I agree Alvarez will have to show more than just his arm. We will see what else he's got.

Compare Alvarez's arm in right to De Aza or Pearce will be impressive for Alvarez.

Lough has a good arm if he can hit.

[Babypowder]

Sure helped Schoop. Along with good defense.

I agree Alvarez will have to show more than just his arm. We will see what else he's got.

Compare Alvarez's arm in right to De Aza or Pearce will be impressive for Alvarez.

Lough has a good arm if he can hit.

Alvarez has shown nothing to make us believe he can hit at the major league level. That discipline alone is enough for me to believe he can't.

[LayzieDES]

Giving somebody a starting spot for 1 good year is a mistake.

What does this mean? You don't want to give a player that has by all definitions had a successful season, the chance to start the next season because it would be a mistake?

Baseball is littered with late bloomers...Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, & Jamie Moyer alone are three former Orioles who struggled in mediocrity before finding success later in their baseball lives. Cruz certainly fits that criteria where he wasn't a regular starter until age 28. Ortiz, RA Dickey, & many others all were late bloomers. How can you not even at least give Pearce the chance to prove himself somewhere in the lineup?

[weams]

No reason at all this can't get to 140. Last 3 years Orioles been making mad money.

The reason is that it's going to go to hundred and $124 million or less and not 140.

[Frobby]

Attendance

2012 (2,102k) to 2013 (2,357k) = 255K or 12% increase

2013 (2,357k) to 2014 (2,464K) = 107K or 4.5% increase

Revenue increase was not as big in 2014.

2012 and 2014 had playoff revenue, 2013 did not. Also, the O's went to a different ticket pricing model in 2014, so attendance increase may be higher or lower than ticket revenue increase. And of course, there are a number of other revenue sources, most notably the MLB TV contract that probably escalates each year.

Also, this:

Many fans put down deposits on 2015 season tickets to secure a chance to buy seats for this year's playoff games, said Greg Bader, the team's vice president of communications and marketing. He declined to share specific numbers, but said deposits came in significantly stronger than they did during the Orioles' last trip to the playoffs in 2012.

"Our assumption at this stage is our season ticket base will be substantially larger heading into next year," he said.

http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore...ket-sales.html

Then there is the MASN factor, which may or may not impact payroll. Rights fees are going up if the arbitration ruling stands. Putting that to one side, MASN's revenues are increasing a lot now:

Year-over-year advertising rates for games could grow by a percentage in the mid-teens for 2015. They've been going up consistently since the network launched eight years ago, McGuinness said.

That trend could be more attributable to the overall television landscape than to the Orioles winning, though. Live broadcasts of sporting events are becoming increasingly important.

"Team success certainly helps, but I think more and more people just understand the value proposition that live and local sports bring to the table," McGuinness said. "I talk about the special connection that really influences brand affinity and purchasing decisions. You're not going to get that with some kind of prime-time program where there's no real local identity."

http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore...-for-masn.html

[Babypowder]

He doesn't strike out a lot so at least the over aggressiveness is not combined with high strikeout totals. I don't think he's ready to play everday. He might never be. However, he might do enough to win a platoon role if the O's go that way. He has a career (SSS) OPS of .923 against LHP in the minors and .844 at Norfolk.

Yes, I could see that happening. I don't think that's where wildcard was going with it however. I have to imagine Alvarez's already terrible 3-4% walk rate comes down even further at the major league level. Couple that with what appears to be middling power and his advanced age for the minor leagues and he better be an elite defender to even consider as an everyday player. At his age, I'd expect dominance at AA/AAA, not just pretty good.

[fearthenoodle]

Attendance

2012 (2,102k) to 2013 (2,357k) = 255K or 12% increase

2013 (2,357k) to 2014 (2,464K) = 107K or 4.5% increase

Revenue increase was not as big in 2014.

I didn't say that well. I meant that 5 extra playoff games (vs. 0 in 2013 and only 2 in 2012), plus presumably a significantly larger season ticket increase for 2015 should mean increased revenues.