BP Orioles Top 10

[Stotle]

Shows you how much difference there can be in these rankings. The Sickels list shown in another thread had Alvarez at 5, and didn't include Hart in the top 20!!

That is different! I'm big on foundational, so Hart's glove alone makes him a pretty nice asset. He's shown feel for the barrel at the plate, and there is impact upside based on present and projected strength. Slow burn, developmentally, but if/when he makes the jump it could be exciting.

[weams]

I think you have to have an ID but don't have to pay for a subscription. So, register and read the free stuff and comment is an option, I believe. Maybe we'll just get rid of the paywall altogether sometime soon...

Ok. That sounds good. Thanks.

[Fiver]

That is different! I'm big on foundational, so Hart's glove alone makes him a pretty nice asset. He's shown feel for the barrel at the plate, and there is impact upside based on present and projected strength. Slow burn, developmentally, but if/when he makes the jump it could be exciting.

Great stuff, thanks a lot for your input.

[wildcard]

I guess. Or Alvarez is just an okay 26-year-old major league piece that can provide some useful innings in a reserve capacity. It's nice to have that wrapped in a cheap price tag, but it doesn't really move the needle as far as the ability of the team to compete.

I guess it depends on whether Alvarez is looked at as a normal 26 year old or a player that just completed his first year in the minors.

[Tony-OH]

That is different! I'm big on foundational, so Hart's glove alone makes him a pretty nice asset. He's shown feel for the barrel at the plate, and there is impact upside based on present and projected strength. Slow burn, developmentally, but if/when he makes the jump it could be exciting.

Sorry Nick, but this is just scout talk and his performance suggests just the opposite. Hart has 15 EBH in 528 professional PAs with a 115 to 36, K to BB ratio and a .580 OPS. That means not only is he not "barreling the ball" very often but he's not controlling the strike zone against low level pitching. Not one person I talked to inside of outside the organization in the player development or professional scouting side has seen what the amateur scouts have seen in him. Other than his draft status, he's done nothing to stand out in professional baseball. I'm shocked that any evaluator would still have him in the top ten and at number five means that evaluator must really not like the rest of the system.

To each is own of course, but at some point a player must perform on the field and Hart has been nothing short of a bust in professional baseball so far. He's young and can certainly improve of course, but a combination of a lack of power (not home runs just extra base hits) and a poor K-BB ratio means he has a ton to improve upon before he should be considered a top ten prospect.

[Stotle]

Sorry Nick, but this is just scout talk and his performance suggests just the opposite. Hart has 15 EBH in 528 professional PAs with a 115 to 36, K to BB ratio and a .580 OPS. That means not only is he not "barreling the ball" very often but he's not controlling the strike zone against low level pitching. Not one person I talked to inside of outside the organization in the player development or professional scouting side has seen what the amateur scouts have seen in him. Other than his draft status, he's done nothing to stand out in professional baseball. I'm shocked that any evaluator would still have him in the top ten and at number five means that evaluator must really not like the rest of the system.

To each is own of course, but at some point a player must perform on the field and Hart has been nothing short of a bust in professional baseball so far. He's young and can certainly improve of course, but a combination of a lack of power (not home runs just extra base hits) and a poor K-BB ratio means he has a ton to improve upon before he should be considered a top ten prospect.

I disagree with a lot of this, particularly interpretation as to how to measure barrel control, and note no mention of his defense (which is what carries his value). Given the number of less-than-flattering things you hint at with respect to BPs ranking, I'm not really interested in discussing with you publicly any further.

I'll leave it at potentially a pretty high floor and building-block skill set; not generally the type I write off completely at age 19 but as I've said I'm a sucker for player profiles that have high probability built in value. I'm willing to give the bat a few more years.

[Stotle]

I guess it depends on whether Alvarez is looked at as a normal 26 year old or a player that just completed his first year in the minors.

I think that confuses the point. Age is important because of what we know regarding developmental arcs and physical "peak" years. I don't think anyone question the fact that he's a future major leaguer. Mellen noted him as a likely contributor in 2015. But the odds are he is what he is, which is a solid reserve player that can occupy a roster spot and provide some production, but likely isn't a name you rely upon for anything significant. As I noted, good to have that wrapped in a cheap price tag. You'd normally pay a few million a year for that player.

[Tony-OH]

I disagree with a lot of this, particularly interpretation as to how to measure barrel control, and note no mention of his defense (which is what carries his value). Given the number of less-than-flattering things you hint at with respect to BPs ranking, I'm not really interested in discussing with you publicly any further.

I'll leave it at potentially a pretty high floor and building-block skill set; not generally the type I write off completely at age 19 but as I've said I'm a sucker for player profiles that have high probability built in value. I'm willing to give the bat a few more years.

What are you talking about? I've discussed ranking Hart @ number five, not dismissing BP's rankings. A bit touchy?

Look, you and anyone else can have any opinion you want, but when you start saying things like the guy barrels the ball often you suggest the guy is hitting the ball on the nose quite a bit. That usually shows up in extra base hits, especially with a guy who has plus speed that Hart has. I've spoken with several player developmental people in Baltimore and not one of them have been impressed with Hart. Some even said if they didn't know he was a high draft pick they'd thought he was an org guy.

I haven't seen Hart player personally, but when I don't hear good things from the player development folks as well as scouts in and out of the organization and then I look up and see abysmal plate discipline and power over his career in the low minors, it's not normally someone I'm going to make a top ten prospect, regardless of his draft status.

Now you and BP may have a different set of parameters to rank players, that's fine, but when you are going to rank a guy like that number five you should be prepared to defend that choice, not get all defensive. You are too good for that kind of reaction.

[Tony-OH]

To be fair, we are talking about 483 professional AB's, or one full season of AB's. Also, many prospects like Hart are slow-tracked to a short season league at age 19. The early signs are not good but it's early. It's not like we're talking about Jason Esposito after 4 years. If Hart repeats the SAL and doesn't put up a solid season, I'll be ready to jump on the "bust" bandwagon.

I think you missed the "so far" part. His numbers have been a bust s afar. That doesn't mean he can't turn it around, but I just wish I would have gotten better reports on the guy. I'm willing to look over some growing pains early in a career, and if he was controlling the strike zone while putting up those "power" numbers I'd be more willing to say it's just a strength issue, but I'm having a hard time finding a guy who put up that K-BB ratio with that K% and lack of power and find him starting in the major leagues.

Hart has had some injuries that have held him back and that may be the reason why some guys haven't gotten good looks at the guy, but at the end of the day, he hasn't performed well SO FAR in his professional career and he's not doing well in the key stat categories that suggest major improvements are on the way.

I hope he proves BP right and he turns it around, but he's got a lot to prove and I for one don't rank guys based on their draft status as much as some others out there. To each is own.

[McNulty]

What are you talking about? I've discussed ranking Hart @ number five, not dismissing BP's rankings. A bit touchy?

Look, you and anyone else can have any opinion you want, but when you start saying things like the guy barrels the ball often you suggest the guy is hitting the ball on the nose quite a bit. That usually shows up in extra base hits, especially with a guy who has plus speed that Hart has. I've spoken with several player developmental people in Baltimore and not one of them have been impressed with Hart. Some even said if they didn't know he was a high draft pick they'd thought he was an org guy.

I haven't seen Hart player personally, but when I don't hear good things from the player development folks as well as scouts in and out of the organization and then I look up and see abysmal plate discipline and power over his career in the low minors, it's not normally someone I'm going to make a top ten prospect, regardless of his draft status.

Now you and BP may have a different set of parameters to rank players, that's fine, but when you are going to rank a guy like that number five you should be prepared to defend that choice, not get all defensive. You are too good for that kind of reaction.

You're the one who came out aggressive on this one. And you haven't even seen him play? Good grief, I would've been much more terse in my reply if I were in Stotles position. It's certainly one thing to disagree, but it's another to discredit their approach, which is the implication here.

Just my two cents, but this was my initial reaction several hours ago when I read your initial post.

[Stotle]

What are you talking about? I've discussed ranking Hart @ number five, not dismissing BP's rankings. A bit touchy?

Look, you and anyone else can have any opinion you want, but when you start saying things like the guy barrels the ball often you suggest the guy is hitting the ball on the nose quite a bit. That usually shows up in extra base hits, especially with a guy who has plus speed that Hart has. I've spoken with several player developmental people in Baltimore and not one of them have been impressed with Hart. Some even said if they didn't know he was a high draft pick they'd thought he was an org guy.

I haven't seen Hart player personally, but when I don't hear good things from the player development folks as well as scouts in and out of the organization and then I look up and see abysmal plate discipline and power over his career in the low minors, it's not normally someone I'm going to make a top ten prospect, regardless of his draft status.

Now you and BP may have a different set of parameters to rank players, that's fine, but when you are going to rank a guy like that number five you should be prepared to defend that choice, not get all defensive. You are too good for that kind of reaction.

Happy to let your words speak for themselves. I'll just note I stated "He's shown feel for the barrel at the plate", which is a much different statement than "he barrels the ball often." The former speaks to periodic demonstration of bat-to-ball that is indicative of hand-eye coordination (hitting certain pitch types in certain situations) and allows an evaluator to project a hit tool. The latter speaks to a present ability to consistently square-up pitches, but is not necessarily in and of itself indicative of hand-eye, as you can have players proficient at working for pitches in specific zones where there mechanics allow them to regularly barrel.

When you get a chance to see Hart play I'm sure you'll note his swing issues are mostly tied to weight transfer/lower-half, which has sapped power and disrupted his timing (issues magnified when he struggled with an aggressive full season assignment, particularly identifying spin). He needs reps, which Mellen explains in the write-up, and isn't going to be a fast mover. But the profile holds particular attributes that are not easy to acquire, and the issues are mostly things that players have shown in the past can be learnable through experience and instruction. I personally think it will come down to his pitch-ID. His swing will continue to improve. The glove will be an asset. All those things would be true regardless of where he was drafted.

[weams]

Sorry Nick, but this is just scout talk and his performance suggests just the opposite. Hart has 15 EBH in 528 professional PAs with a 115 to 36, K to BB ratio and a .580 OPS. That means not only is he not "barreling the ball" very often but he's not controlling the strike zone against low level pitching. Not one person I talked to inside of outside the organization in the player development or professional scouting side has seen what the amateur scouts have seen in him. Other than his draft status, he's done nothing to stand out in professional baseball. I'm shocked that any evaluator would still have him in the top ten and at number five means that evaluator must really not like the rest of the system.

To each is own of course, but at some point a player must perform on the field and Hart has been nothing short of a bust in professional baseball so far. He's young and can certainly improve of course, but a combination of a lack of power (not home runs just extra base hits) and a poor K-BB ratio means he has a ton to improve upon before he should be considered a top ten prospect.

I saw both Hart and Yastrzemski play this spring. Certainly I have no scouting eye but they both appeared to have a little something that I was not seeing in folks like Buck Britton and Ivan Dejesus Jr. They were quite active and had the smooth movements of someone who had control of their own body instinctively. Hart covered a lot of ground in the outfield and Mike moved with a good jump at the crack of the bat.

[wildcard]

I think that confuses the point. Age is important because of what we know regarding developmental arcs and physical "peak" years. I don't think anyone question the fact that he's a future major leaguer. Mellen noted him as a likely contributor in 2015. But the odds are he is what he is, which is a solid reserve player that can occupy a roster spot and provide some production, but likely isn't a name you rely upon for anything significant. As I noted, good to have that wrapped in a cheap price tag. You'd normally pay a few million a year for that player.

I believe that when a player's development is interrupted by injury or moving from one place to another like Cuba to the US, we have to consider age a little differently. Alvarez is still advancing through the O's system. I don't believe we know where he will end up or at what level of performance.

[Frobby]

I believe that when a player's development is interrupted by injury or moving from one place to another like Cuba to the US, we have to consider age a little differently. Alvarez is still advancing through the O's system. I don't believe we know where he will end up or at what level of performance.

Obviously you factor in those things. Still, the fact remains that physically, he's not going to change much at this point, and you can still assess what the player's strengths and weaknesses are.

[Tony-OH]

You're the one who came out aggressive on this one. And you haven't even seen him play? Good grief, I would've been much more terse in my reply if I were in Stotles position. It's certainly one thing to disagree, but it's another to discredit their approach, which is the implication here.

Just my two cents, but this was my initial reaction several hours ago when I read your initial post.

You can take any position you like, but I talk to a lot of scouts and player development people with many years of actual baseball scouting and development in professional baseball. I've been doing this for oh, I don't know, about 16 years now. I don't need to see everyone personally to make an assessment.

I have a different opinion than Stotle and apparently BP and if you feel I came off as "aggressive" in my post than that's your reaction. This is exactly why i never discuss other people's lists because they automatically get defensive. I talk with real scouts all the time, you the know the kind that are paid and make a living doing this stuff and we disagree at times, but we have a great back and forth. I enjoy that back and forth because we don't try and impress ourselves with scout speak but just talk in plain english (with some scout speak) about our opinions on the future of that player.

Nowhere did I attack anyone's ranking, I just said I disagreed with putting a guy in there with such little success so far in his career. Some guys love to throw around the scouting terms and can convince many fans that they know exactly what they are talking about. In my mind though, I'd rather use the assessment of multiple scouts then allow the stats to do some talking as well. Too many times I've heard from amateur and pro scouts that player X is this and that, but at the end of the day you go, "then why did he put up a .560 OPS? or why did he strike out 6.2 batter per 9 with that stuff?"

Stats don't tell you everything but they are great indicator/tool to use. I prefer the group approach where you get multiple views on a guy from multiple sources than analyze the stats/age/level and make an assessment. No one has the 100 percent answer. This is supposed to be fun, but some people take it too seriously and become too touchy. I've had people want to discuss my rankings or reports and I've always been glad to state my point.

I've looked over my post again for the life of me I don't see any aggression unless this got you all upset "I'm shocked that any evaluator would still have him in the top ten and at number five means that evaluator must really not like the rest of the system."

That's not aggression, that's my opinion and one I stand by. BP and Stotle or whoever can have any opinion or make any list with any rankings they want, but they should be willing to engage in conversation why they choose that player over the many others in the system.

Scouts differ all the time so I have no problem with anyone who has a different opinion on a player, but I never degraded how they evaluate players now do I do any name calling of disrespect them, I just said I can't see how they could make that pick. I stand by that. If that's aggressive to you or anyone else, so be it. You won't be the first person to get all upset with me nor the last.