What is Dan Duquette's strategy for 2016?

[wildcard]

The 2015 Orioles club is pretty much put together. There are a few fill-in moves to be made to complete the roster but for the most part the major players are in place, the coaching staff is complete and Buck is thinking about Spring Training. The reviews of the team may be mixed but at least some national writers believe the O's are still headed for a contending year.

But the very foundation that the O's three years of winning baseball has been built on will be in flux after the 2015 season. What Dan did to build a winner was to supplement the solid base of high draft choices acquired by Andy MacPhail with up and coming pitchers found by his scouting staff. Number 1 picks in Markakis, Wieters, Machado with Jones, a number one pick acquired in trade, along with key pieces acquired in trade like Hardy and Davis were all master minded by MacPhail. What Dan did was build a starting staff through scouting and trades. Gonzalez, Norris, Chen and the drafting of Gausman all have Duquette's finger prints on them. The result has been a winning team.

But Dan's method of building has not included many long term contracts to tie up key players. Only Jones and Hardy are signed to extensions. With two major players leaving this off season and 11 more players ready to become free agents after the 2015 season the question is how does Dan keep winning?

Some skeptics have suggested that Dan will follow the Friedman/Maddon model which rode the high draft choices in Tampa for a long winning run and then left to join other clubs with more lucrative deals. I hope that is not the plan.

However, the idea of letting key players leave for compensation picks seems somewhat flawed for staying competitive in the short term. Compensation picks are at the end of the first round of the draft. Picks 30 to 40 depending on other picks that are awarded. They aren't early first round picks like Wieters, Gausman, Machado and Bundy were. Early picks can sometimes make it to the majors in a year or two but that is not as normal for picks 30 to 40. So though it would be good to get something for a free agent it is not a good path to keep the O's competitive in 2016.

I don't have answers for how Dan plans to approach keeping the team contending in 2016. He hasn't shown the will to outbid other teams for expensive free agents. Most of his farm system players outside of Dylan Bundy are not projected to be impact players by 2016. And even if some do develop into major leaguers, 2016 sounds early for them to ready for those roles.

So what do you think? How will Dan keep the O's contending in 2016? I am interested in your ideas. How does Dan fill the holes?

1B ?

2B Schoop

SS Hardy

3B Machado

C Joseph??

LF ?

CF Jones

RF Alvarez???

DH Walker???

Flaherty, BC?, Lough, ??

Tillman

Gausman

Gonzalez

Bundy??

Jimenez

Britton

Brach

McFarland

???

???

???

???

Is this a contending team?

[Mayor McCheese]

Is this a contending team?

The window is closed soooo..

[Can_of_corn]

Take the Toronto job.

[Orioles0615]

The window is closed soooo..

The rotation isn't too bad, but other then that it looks bleak. Even with Alveraz and Walker 2015 would be their first full year. This is why I don't think sign only AAAA guys will work. 2016 could be a rebuild year.

[oriole]

I see it as opportunity. We still have Jones, Machado, and Hardy as a solid core and the pitching looks to be in okay shape as long as Gausman and Bundy come along to at least league average, but hopefully better.

Then we have 2015 as an evaluation year for players like Schoop, Alvarez, and Walker. Hopefully at least one of the three deem themselves worthy to be counted on in 2016. You may even be able to throw Lough in this category even though he is far from a "prospect"

Then you're looking at some payroll flexibility so to fill in the blanks will be easier to accomplish when you have money to spend and a solid core of players to build around.

[33rdst]

Dan should go into next year with about 60-65 million dollars to spend. This assumes 120-125 million dollar payroll. I think he'll look to solidify the pitching staff. How Jimenez, Bundy and Gausman do this year will determine if he'll spend on the rotation. If the younger guys progress as expected and Jimenez can find himself the rotation looks pretty solid. The bullpen will need serious attention. I don't see him resigning O'day, so we'll need a solid right handed set up man. Clearly he'll need to add a couple of left handers as well.

Rebuilding the position players will start with the catcher. If Weiters fully recovers this year I can see them going hard after him. Dan likes a strong team up the middle. Davis would be a great trade this year and I can see him being moved even if we're in contention. Pearce's progress will be the key here. I can see them siging Pearce to a two or three year deal. The rest of the infield is solid. In the outfield, Jones remains the core player and that's a good thing. We'll see how Lough develops this year to determine where DD goes there. Left field and DH will have to be found in trade or free agent market. DD has lots of payroll flexibility. I think we can contend again in 2016. Of course, this is all predicated on the fact that DD will still be here.

[OFFNY]

o

Remain with the Orioles, especially if we have another winning season in 2015.

Three years ago, we needed him, and he needed us.

Now, the leverage has shifted ...... we need him more than he needs us. But he also knows that he is redeeming himself with a team that is in the same division as the team that dumped him prior to the 2003 season.

I believe that Duquette never really got enough credit for putting together the nucleus of the Red Sox teams that were champions and perennial contenders from 2003 through about 2007 and 2008. What better way is there to prove his shrewdness and effectiveness as a major league baseball general manager by resurrecting (and keeping afloat) a team that had previously been in the basement, right in front of the previous team that rejected you? There isn't.

Legacy. I'm banking on Duquette understanding that no amount of money can replace it. If he stays with the Orioles for at least 5 or 6 more years while simultaneously continuing to put together winning teams in Baltimore, he will not only go down in history as a legend to Oriole fans, but he will also likely wind up being regarded as one of the great G.M.'s of his time when all is said and done.

[jamalshw]

Like others have said, the rotation is likely not in that bad of shape. You will have Tillman, Jimenez, Gausman and Gonzo as holdovers. A lot rests on whether Jimenez can find some control and at least be league average. If he can get even close to that, I'm okay with those four plus Bundy. I think DD may pick up another arm for depth, but I don't see that as a major issue.

In the bullpen, I've always been a proponent of building off the scrap heap and through failed starting prospects. I think Davies, Berry and/or Wright may be added to Britton, Brach and McFarland to form a solid base. If the Orioles can extend O'Day and/or bring in one more veteran arm, that would go a long ways.

All in all, I don't view the pitching as very bleak. A couple moves would be needed, but nothing overly expensive.

As most have noted, its the position players that are in question. I think Machado, Hardy and Jones are all solid enough. I expect Schoop to take a big step forward offensively this season. If he does, that answers another question. That then leaves: C, 1B, LF, RF and DH.

I personally don't view Joseph as an everyday answer. Ohlman's glove and struggles at the plate in Bowie are also discouraging. I like Cisco, but he's too far away. To me, this is a real question and resigning Wieters should be a priority.

I would be comfortable with the Orioles banking on Alvarez or Walker to be an answer, but not both. All in all, there are holes and DD will have to be busy at the deadline to help fill them proactively (like DeAza last year) and in the offseason. There are some answers likely to be out there though: Upton, Davis, Wieters, Zobrist, Pearce, Navarro, Heyward, etc.

All in all, I don't think its a foregone conclusion that 2016 will be a rebuilding year, but it will need to be a retooling year with a much more proactive offseason.

[VeveJones007]

The O's ability to contend in 2016-2020 will be dependent upon Gausman, Bundy, Harvey, etc. If they can get great value for cheap, quality pitching, then they can afford to spend on bats to supplement the roster.

DD will have some decisions to make on extensions over the next 10 months. If the young pitching looks good, he will look to extend Davis and Wieters to reasonable deals (dependent, of course, on production, health, and how prospects look at 1B and C) and let Chen and Norris walk for picks (or just walk for nothing if they take a step back in 2015). If he is unable to extend Davis and Wieters, he will look to fill in the roster via free agency like the Cardinals did when Pujols left for LA.

[Guest]

Take the Toronto job.

Yup gonna happen.

[Frobby]

Take the Toronto job.

I was wondering how many posts it would take before somebody made that comment.

On the assumption that Duquette stays, however, it's obvious he can't fill all the holes resulting from the expiring contracts with low-cost options and hope to compete in 2016. Therefore, what I expect him to do is:

1. Decide which players are his top priority to keep and attempt to lock them up before the 2015 season begins.

2. Maybe try to lock up a couple of guys as the 2015 season progresses.

3. Next year, be a bit more aggressive in the early FA market if a lot of key players have flown the coop, especially on the position player side.

Nevertheless, I don't think every key player with an expiring contract will be extended or replaced with a relatively high-priced FA. A lot depends on how 2015 goes for Bundy, Davies, the other AAA starting pitchers, Walker, Alvarez and Joseph.

[Can_of_corn]

I was wondering how many posts it would take before somebody made that comment.

On the assumption that Duquette stays, however, it's obvious he can't fill all the holes resulting from the expiring contracts with low-cost options and hope to compete in 2016. Therefore, what I expect him to do is:

1. Decide which players are his top priority to keep and attempt to lock them up before the 2015 season begins.

2. Maybe try to lock up a couple of guys as the 2015 season progresses.

3. Next year, be a bit more aggressive in the early FA market if a lot of key players have flown the coop, especially on the position player side.

Nevertheless, I don't think every key player with an expiring contract will be extended or replaced with a relatively high-priced FA. A lot depends on how 2015 goes for Bundy, Davies, the other AAA starting pitchers, Walker, Alvarez and Joseph.

Note the emoticon.

[Frobby]

Note the emoticon.

Yeah, I should have put a wink on mine. Your comment was the very first thing that popped into my head when I saw the thread title.

[wildcard]

I like the way Frobby and 33rdst are thinking. I think the O's will have about 53m to spend and will need experienced players to play 1B, LF, two setup men and a catcher to share time with Joseph. That sounds doable.

If the O's get experience players with that money than having Walker and Alvarez in the lineup may work. Two of the 4 opening in the pen can be covered by young pitchers like Davies, Wright, T. Berry or Drake. All the young players have options so DD will do his normal depth acquisitions at AAA.

If all that works then DD may be able to come up with a contending team. There is a long way to go before answers really need to happen but I like the way this looks at this point.

Maybe going after a young free agent like Justin Upton is in the O's future.

[mdbdotcom]

I think if he gets a chance to acquire an experienced and affordable catcher with the ability to start in 2016 he will do so at the earliest opportunity.

Assuming Bundy, Walker, and Alvarez are ready for 2016, catcher should be the only spot that will need to be replaced externally by someone who is more than a role player. I think the strategy will be to grab a catcher and remain flexible.