Jeremy Guthrie in 2008 Predictions

[RShack]

I don't know much about baseball statistical analysis but I know a lot about statistics.

Well, based only on that, I expect it will be a rocky ride. You're not gonna believe what some guys think stats tell them. Good luck ;-)

ps: A few guys are good about it. A guy named 1970 is. A sporadic poster named TommyD has made some interesting posts. A couple others too...

[BaltimoreTerp]

For me "the end of the season" means the whole year -- which gives stats you don't seem prepared to address.

Just take a look. You don't see a jump of 2.25 runs in ERA, and walking more guys and giving up more home runs in considerably fewer innings, and get suspicious?

I would love to see him do really well, and show that the second-half was due to injury or exhaustion or something else, but the stats there and in the minors suggest that he just isn't THAT good.

[theobird]

Just take a look. You don't see a jump of 2.25 runs in ERA, and walking more guys and giving up more home runs in considerably fewer innings, and get suspicious?

I would love to see him do really well, and show that the second-half was due to injury or exhaustion or something else, but the stats there and in the minors suggest that he just isn't THAT good.

But his stuff is that good. I think the guy got tired because he had never thrown that many innings. I think his first half stats were better than what he is, his second half stats worse than he really is. My guess for '08? I'd say Guthrie will end up with a 3.90-4.10 ERA. W-L's is hard to predict because it is hard to predict how good, or bad, this team will be.

[Sports Guy]

But his stuff is that good. I think the guy got tired because he had never thrown that many innings. I think his first half stats were better than what he is, his second half stats worse than he really is. My guess for '08? I'd say Guthrie will end up with a 3.90-4.10 ERA. W-L's is hard to predict because it is hard to predict how good, or bad, this team will be.

This isn't true!

Everyone keeps saying it but its not true.

His fastball is very good...The rest of his stuff is POTENTIALLY good and in certain games, it is very good.

But to have very good stuff, it needs to be consistent.

His secondary pitches are far from consistent.

[Lucky Jim]

Well, based only on that, I expect it will be a rocky ride. You're not gonna believe what some guys think stats tell them. Good luck ;-)

ps: A few guys are good about it. A guy named 1970 is. A sporadic poster named TommyD has made some interesting posts. A couple others too...

And so you go back on ignore. I tried.

[Lucky Jim]

This isn't true!

Everyone keeps saying it but its not true.

His fastball is very good...The rest of his stuff is POTENTIALLY good and in certain games, it is very good.

But to have very good stuff, it needs to be consistent.

His secondary pitches are far from consistent.

This is exactly right. Why anyone would choose to ignore is second half, would choose to ignore his inconsistent off-speed stuff and simply assume that Guthrie will be good next year is beyond me.

He gave up 14 HRs over his last 73 innings last year. This was from fatigue? Just how tired was he?

[Sports Guy]

Why do you guys think Guthrie struggled in the minors at an older age???

Confidence

Inconsistent secondary pitchers

Those are my 2 reasons.

[theobird]

Why do you guys think Guthrie struggled in the minors at an older age???

Confidence

Inconsistent secondary pitchers

Those are my 2 reasons.

I got it SG. You don't think Guthrie will be very good this year. You think he will pitch to around a 5 ERA. Right? I got it. But I don't agree with you. Time will tell who is right. If you are, I will admit it and go on. But it will not be a good thing for the O's, to be sure. I say he will pitch much closer to a 4 ERA than a 5. You say 5. We'll see.

[Sports Guy]

I got it SG. You don't think Guthrie will be very good this year. You think he will pitch to around a 5 ERA. Right? I got it. But I don't agree with you. Time will tell who is right. If you are, I will admit it and go on. But it will not be a good thing for the O's, to be sure. I say he will pitch much closer to a 4 ERA than a 5. You say 5. We'll see.

Actually i said 5, give or take .25 points.

I am not sure if it will be a bad thing or not.

I think he can be an asset in the pen(as I always have said) and since we have a ton of young pitching, it could make our overall staff deeper.

[Lucky Jim]

I got it SG. You don't think Guthrie will be very good this year. You think he will pitch to around a 5 ERA. Right? I got it. But I don't agree with you. Time will tell who is right. If you are, I will admit it and go on. But it will not be a good thing for the O's, to be sure. I say he will pitch much closer to a 4 ERA than a 5. You say 5. We'll see.

SG is not saying what he WILL do. He's saying that we should plan on Guthrie regressing while we hope that he does not. There's a difference.

One is about constructing a roster out of unrealistic expectations and assumptions (like, say, that Bruce Chen could repeat his performance). This is how terrible rosters were put together for years.

The other is taking a clear-eyed look at what the team's realistic expectations are, and planning accordingly. If SG thought that Guthrie would, no doubt, pitch to an ERA over 5.00 this year, he'd probably stick him in the bullpen now. But he's not saying that. He's just saying we need to be ready if/when the poorer version of Guthrie shows up again. I don't think (and I could be wrong) that SG is saying that he shouldn't be given a shot at the rotation to start the season. He may not expect him to last there, but that's just because his expectation for Guthrie is a regression. It's a fair expectation. And just as likely (or more) as Guthrie repeating the first half of last year.*

And he's right. There's really no disputing it.

*If SG is saying that the peripherals somehow "fix" Guthrie into a certain type of performance - i.e., are evidence that Guthrie can't repeat last year, then he's using them incorrectly. But I think he knows better than that.

[theobird]

SG is not saying what he WILL do. He's saying that we should plan on Guthrie regressing while we hope that he does not. There's a difference.

One is about constructing a roster out of unrealistic expectations and assumptions (like, say, that Bruce Chen could repeat his performance). This is how terrible rosters were put together for years.

The other is taking a clear-eyed look at what the team's realistic expectations are, and planning accordingly. If SG thought that Guthrie would, no doubt, pitch to an ERA over 5.00 this year, he'd probably stick him in the bullpen now. But he's not saying that. He's just saying we need to be ready if/when the poorer version of Guthrie shows up again. I don't think (and I could be wrong) that SG is saying that he shouldn't be given a shot at the rotation to start the season. He may not expect him to last there, but that's just because his expectation for Guthrie is a regression. It's a fair expectation. And just as likely (or more) as Guthrie repeating the first half of last year.

And he's right. There's really no disputing it.

Jim, if you read SG's last post he is predicting that Guthrie will pitch to a 5 +/- .25. That is his opinion, and he is entitled to it. I respect his opinions. He's a great poster, and a guy that I agree with most all of the time. But, I disagree with him on Guthrie and have since last season. I hope that I reserve the right to my opinion as well. I am predicting Guthrie to pitch to a 4 +/- .25. OK, I stole the +/- .35 from SG. I see Guthrie as having an excellent arm, and the guy is a very poised pitcher. No, he isn't Jim Palmer. But I like his tools. I like his make up.

Any pitcher we currently have could falter and be replaced in the rotation. I think that goes without saying, considering the depth we now have in the arms department and the fact that really none of them are established.

[RShack]

And so you go back on ignore. I tried.

Yep, you sure did.

Some folks cope *so* well with disagreement...

[Sports Guy]

If I had to predict an ERA for Guthrie, i would probably put him right around where ZIPS projected him(4.84)....Somewhere in that area...Which is why i said 5 give or take .25.

I wonder 2 things about Guthrie:

Would you guys think he was going to be very good if.....

1)....he wasn't a former first round pick.

2).....he wasn't a likeable guy.

[Lucky Jim]

If I had to predict an ERA for Guthrie, i would probably put him right around where ZIPS projected him(4.84)....Somewhere in that area...Which is why i said 5 give or take .25.

I wonder 2 things about Guthrie:

Would you guys think he was going to be very good if.....

1)....he wasn't a former first round pick.

2).....he wasn't a likeable guy.

Do you think Guthrie warrants a spot in the rotation?

[Sports Guy]

Do you think Guthrie warrants a spot in the rotation?

Assuming he has a good spring, then yes.

Actually, when I think about it, unless he looks terrible in the side sessions, it probably isn't fair to take a spot away from him if he has a terrible spring(because of sample size) BUT if he does have a terrible spring and some of the other young pitchers step up, i wouldn't be against putting him in the pen to see how things go.