Jeremy Guthrie in 2008 Predictions

[Fairfax Bird]

Why?

He has 10 starts that were total abnormal to what he did the rest of the year(as a whole) and his MiL career and he deserves the benefit of the doubt???

Well to be fair, he had 17 Quality Starts in 26 starts for the year and gave up 3ER or fewer in 20 of 26 starts, so I get the whole projection thing and am really interested to see how he does, but he deserves credit for more than 10 starts being abnormal to the rest of his year, his year was pretty good.

[mikezpen]

I watched Guthrie quite a bit. He had a terrible August but recovered somewhat in his September starts. It appears that later in the season, he was fine for about 4 or 5 innings and then he'd get hit. I recall going to a Minnesota game in August where he looked about as good as it's possible to look for 6 innings. I think Minny mite have gotten 2 hits. But he never got out of the 7th. They hit 2 home runs about as far as it's possible to go. I never saw anybody lose it that quickly. While the overall line often looked mediocre or bad, The early innings were usually pretty good, even late in the year.

So I don't think they necessarily "caught up with him" or that his early starts were lucky. I think he wore down and that he couldn't go deep into games toward the end of the season. His 175 innings were far more than he'd ever pitched as a pro.

[Since'54]

Assuming he has a good spring, then yes.

Actually, when I think about it, unless he looks terrible in the side sessions, it probably isn't fair to take a spot away from him if he has a terrible spring(because of sample size) BUT if he does have a terrible spring and some of the other young pitchers step up, i wouldn't be against putting him in the pen to see how things go.

I was going to let you alone since it's apparent we are never going to think alike, but this demands a response. You remember of course that you are talking about last season's second best Oriole pitcher and about the man Tony Pente has suggested will be the opening day starter.

[Sports Guy]

I was going to let you alone since it's apparent we are never going to think alike' date=' but this demands a response. You remember of course that you are talking about last season's second best Oriole pitcher and about the man Tony Pente has suggested will be the opening day starter.[/quote']

We are???????

I thought you were talking about the OTHER Jeremy Guthrie!

[rosekeister]

I think Jeremy Guthrie's season is being unfairly characterized as 10 great games which will of course never be repeated. If you look at his game by game log it shows that after the great May and June, Guthrie was 3-2 with a 3.93 ERA in July. This is good pitching which I would accept every month for 2008. Then in September just before and after his injury, Guthrie had an average 4.50 ERA in just 16 innings.

So when people speak of how bad he was after May and June, they are actually referring to one month, August. In six games in August, Guthrie was 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA. Even in August he had two quality starts so when it is said he pitched badly after the first 10 starts, you are only referring to 4 games. I don't think you can judge a pitcher by his four worst starts.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I think Jeremy Guthrie's season is being unfairly characterized as 10 great games which will of course never be repeated. If you look at his game by game log it shows that after the great May and June, Guthrie was 3-2 with a 3.93 ERA in July. This is good pitching which I would accept every month for 2008. Then in September just before and after his injury, Guthrie had an average 4.50 ERA in just 16 innings.

So when people speak of how bad he was after May and June, they are actually referring to one month, August. In six games in August, Guthrie was 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA. Even in August he had two quality starts so when it is said he pitched badly after the first 10 starts, you are only referring to 4 games. I don't think you can judge a pitcher by his four worst starts.

You could also say that, even though he only had four REALLY bad starts, he only had eight quality starts in 15 chances on/after July 1, even though his first twelve starts (all before July 1) were all quality starts.

[Since'54]

You could also say that, even though he only had four REALLY bad starts, he only had eight quality starts in 15 chances on/after July 1, even though his first twelve starts (all before July 1) were all quality starts.

And if you did choose to say that, you might conclude that he's in line for a pretty decent season in 2008. Unless, of course, you felt factors other than actual major league production were the main points to consider.

[BaltimoreTerp]

And if you did choose to say that' date=' you might conclude that he's in line for a pretty decent season in 2008. Unless, of course, you felt factors other than actual major league production were the main points to consider.[/quote']

Or, you might conclude that he had a good first half, something caught up to him in the second half (fatigue, injury, the rest of the league), and you can't say for sure that he will be as good as his full-season numbers show this coming season.

[Since'54]

Or, you might conclude that he had a good first half, something caught up to him in the second half (fatigue, injury, [U]the rest of the league[/u]), and you can't say for sure that he will be as good as his full-season numbers show this coming season.

Of course you can't say that for sure. Pretty apparent. Otherwise what you say here minus the boldface section is what I've been stating throughout this thread.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Of course you can't say that for sure. Pretty apparent. Otherwise what you say here minus the boldface section is what I've been stating throughout this thread.

And what I said, including the boldface/underlined section, is what we've been stating throughout the thread.

So, sounds like some of us are willing to take more into account.

[rosekeister]

You could also say that, even though he only had four REALLY bad starts, he only had eight quality starts in 15 chances on/after July 1, even though his first twelve starts (all before July 1) were all quality starts.

I think though that if you toss a pitcher's best 10 starts as unimportant, then you have to toss out his worst 10 starts to get some idea of how he pitches. When people discuss Guthrie I think what is really being talked about is whether he had a career year which will never be repeated or whether he finally got his chance and ran with it. Only time will tell.

Pitchers only start 30-35 games a year so to toss out the best 10 will make any pitcher look bad. Mathmatically speaking if you toss out the best, the rest will look worse. Guthrie's year comes down to one bad month. Even Bedard had a month with an ERA over 6.00.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I think though that if you toss a pitcher's best 10 starts as unimportant, then you have to toss out his worst 10 starts to get some idea of how he pitches. When people discuss Guthrie I think what is really being talked about is whether he had a career year which will never be repeated or whether he finally got his chance and ran with it. Only time will tell.

Pitchers only start 30-35 games a year so to toss out the best 10 will make any pitcher look bad. Mathmatically speaking if you toss out the best, the rest will look worse. Guthrie's year comes down to one bad month. Even Bedard had a month with an ERA over 6.00.

 CarGm TmG Date       Opp DR GmReslt Pitcher Result  IP   H  R ER BB SO HR   ERA  BF Pit Str GmSc IR IS Situat. In/Out Inn Rnr O Scr  SB CS Pk AB 2B 3B IW HB SH SF RE DP+-----+---+---------+----+--+-------+--------------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+------+--+---+---+----+--+--+--------------+--------------+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+   24  33 May  8     TBD  7 W  8-3  GS-6  ,W  2-1   6    6  1  1  0  2  0   4.64 22  67  46   58        1t start tie   6t 3 out a 4   0  0  0 22  3  0  0  0  0  0  0  2    25  38 May 13    @BOS  4 L  5-6  GS-9            8.1  3  1  0  2  2  0   3.34 29  91  61   75        1b start a 2   9b 1-- 1 a 5   0  0  0 27  2  0  0  0  0  0  1  2    26  43 May 19    @WSN  5 W  3-2  GS-7            7    4  1  1  0 10  0   2.95 25 112  74   75        1b start tie   7b 3 out d 1   0  0  0 25  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0    27  47 May 24     TOR  4 L  4-5  GS-7            7    7  3  3  2  3  2   3.09 27  96  60   52        1t start tie   7t 3 out a 1   0  0  0 24  2  0  0  1  0  0  0  3    28  52 May 29    @KCR  4 W  6-2  GS-7  ,W  3-1   7    3  2  2  1  3  1   3.02 24  96  59   65        1b start tie   7b 3 out a 4   0  0  0 22  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  1    29  57 Jun  3    @LAA  4 L  3-4  GS-8            8    3  2  1  0  4  0   2.76 28  88  64   74        1b start tie   8b 3 out a 1   0  0  0 27  1  0  0  1  0  0  1  0    30  62 Jun  9     COL  5 L  2-3  GS-8            8    6  2  2  1  6  0   2.70 30 114  71   67        1t start tie   8t 3 out tie   0  0  0 29  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  1    31  66 Jun 14     WSN  4 L  1-3  GS-7            7    4  1  1  2  5  0   2.57 27  92  58   68        1t start tie   7t 3 out tie   0  0  1 25  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0    32  71 Jun 20    @SDP  5 W  7-1  GS-8  ,W  4-1   8    4  1  1  1  9  1   2.42 28 101  68   78        1b start a 3   8b 3 out a 6   0  0  0 27  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0    33  76 Jun 26     NYY  5 W  3-2  GS-7            6.1  7  2  2  1  6  1   2.45 25  94  62   56        1t start tie   7t 1-- 1 tie   0  0  0 24  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2    34  81 Jul  1     LAA  4 L  3-4  GS-8  ,L  4-2   8    4  4  4  0  7  2   2.62 28 108  73   65        1t start tie   8t 3 out d 2   0  0  0 28  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0    35  86 Jul  6    @TEX  4 L  3-4  GS-6            6    5  3  3  3  3  1   2.74 26  98  61   50        1b start tie   6b 3 out d 3   0  0  1 21  2  0  0  0  1  1  0  0    36  89 Jul 12     CHW  5 L  7-9  GS-4  ,L  4-3   3.2  9  6  5  3  3  2   3.07 23  81  46   21        1t start tie   4t -23 2 d 5   0  0  0 20  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0    37  94 Jul 17    @SEA  4 W  8-3  GS-6  ,W  5-3   6    6  2  2  3  3  1   3.06 25  94  53   52        1b start tie   6b 3 out a 1   1  1  0 22  1  0  1  0  0  0  1  2    38  98 Jul 22    @OAK  4 W  2-0  GS-7  ,W  6-3   7    2  0  0  3  6  0   2.88 25  99  58   76        1b start tie   7b 3 out a 1   0  1  0 22  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0    39 102 Jul 27     NYY  4 W  4-2  GS-6  ,W  7-3   6    6  2  2  3  4  0   2.89 26 101  59   53        1t start tie   6t 3 out a 1   0  0  0 23  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  1    40 107 Aug  2    @BOS  5 L  4-7  GS-6            5.1  9  3  3  4  3  2   2.98 29 105  60   37        1b start tie   6b 123 1 tie   1  0  0 24  1  0  0  0  1  0  1  1    41 112 Aug  8     SEA  5 L  4-8  GS-4  ,L  7-4   4    8  6  5  0  3  2   3.22 22  88  56   27        1t start tie   4t 3 out d 3   0  0  0 20  0  0  0  1  0  1  1  0    42 117 Aug 13    @NYY  4 L  6-7  GS-5            4.2  9  6  6  2  3  2   3.50 24  96  61   23        1b start a 3   5b -23 2 d 2   1  0  1 22  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  1    43 122 Aug 19    @TOR  5 L  2-3  GS-8            8    3  2  2  0  6  1   3.44 27 115  81   74        1b start tie   8b 3 out tie   0  0  0 27  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0    44 127 Aug 24     MIN  4 L  4-7  GS-7            6.2  9  3  3  1  1  2   3.46 29  93  61   44        1t start tie   7t 12- 2 a 1   0  0  1 28  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0    45 132 Aug 30     TBD  5 L  6-8  GS-6  ,L  7-5   6    8  6  5  3  6  2   3.62 30  98  63   37        1t start tie   6t 3 out d 1   0  0  0 26  2  0  0  0  1  0  1  0    46 137 Sep  4    @TBD  4 W  8-4  GS-6            6    8  3  3  4  5  0   3.65 28 100  64   45        1b start a 2   6b 3 out d 1   0  1  1 24  3  0  1  0  0  0  0  0    47 142 Sep  9     BOS  4 L  2-3  GS-5            5    7  2  2  2  5  0   3.65 24 108  70   48        1t start tie   6t -2- 0 d 1   1  0  0 22  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0    48 159 Sep 27     TOR 17 W  8-5  GS-5            5    6  3  3  1  3  0   3.70 22  80  48   45        1t start tie   5t 3 out a 1   0  1  0 20  1  0  0  0  1  0  0  0 

I propose his ten best starts are:

May 13, 19, 24, 29

June 3, 9, 14, 20

July 22

August 19

And his ten worst are:

July 1, 6, 12

August 2, 8, 13, 30

September 4, 9, 27

That leaves:

 CarGm TmG Date       Opp DR GmReslt Pitcher Result  IP   H  R ER BB SO HR   ERA  BF Pit Str GmSc IR IS Situat. In/Out Inn Rnr O Scr  SB CS Pk AB 2B 3B IW HB SH SF RE DP+-----+---+---------+----+--+-------+--------------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+------+--+---+---+----+--+--+--------------+--------------+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+   24  33 May  8     TBD  7 W  8-3  GS-6  ,W  2-1   6    6  1  1  0  2  0   4.64 22  67  46   58        1t start tie   6t 3 out a 4   0  0  0 22  3  0  0  0  0  0  0  2     33  76 Jun 26     NYY  5 W  3-2  GS-7            6.1  7  2  2  1  6  1   2.45 25  94  62   56        1t start tie   7t 1-- 1 tie   0  0  0 24  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2    37  94 Jul 17    @SEA  4 W  8-3  GS-6  ,W  5-3   6    6  2  2  3  3  1   3.06 25  94  53   52        1b start tie   6b 3 out a 1   1  1  0 22  1  0  1  0  0  0  1  2    39 102 Jul 27     NYY  4 W  4-2  GS-6  ,W  7-3   6    6  2  2  3  4  0   2.89 26 101  59   53        1t start tie   6t 3 out a 1   0  0  0 23  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  1    44 127 Aug 24     MIN  4 L  4-7  GS-7            6.2  9  3  3  1  1  2   3.46 29  93  61   44        1t start tie   7t 12- 2 a 1   0  0  1 28  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 

That gives him a 3-0 record with a 2.90 ERA and 1.355 WHIP. In five starts; he only started 26 last year.

Not much to go on.

[Boy Howdy]

I understand the legitimate fears about the "real" Guthrie looking more like the pitcher from the second half, but even considering removing him from the rotation right now makes little sense to me considering we're actively seeking guys who can eat up innings. With Bedard gone, Guthrie averaged more IP/start last year than anybody the O's have.

With all the different splits people are posting to analyze him, here's one that I like a lot:

In the 6 starts Guthrie won, he pitched to a 1.80 ERA and averaged 6 2/3 IP

In the 5 starts Guthrie lost, he pitched to a 6.75 ERA and averaged 5 1/3 IP

In the 15 starts Guthrie got no-decision, he pitched to a 3.20 ERA and averaged a shade under 6 2/3 IP

[Since'54]

And what I said, including the boldface/underlined section, is what we've been stating throughout the thread.

So, sounds like some of us are willing to take more into account.

Time , I think, to sit back and let the season unfold. I hope that if Guthrie has a solid 2008 as the best Oriole pitcher (which I predict) that you, SG, and others desist with the assertions that your statistics show that he is nothing but a fluke. If he falls on his face, I'll be happy to bow to your superior wisdom.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Time ' date=' I think, to sit back and let the season unfold. I hope that if Guthrie has a solid 2008 as the best Oriole pitcher (which I predict) that you, SG, and others desist with the assertions that your statistics show that he is nothing but a fluke. If he falls on his face, I'll be happy to bow to your superior wisdom.[/quote']

Glad you want to stop discussing, because this post shows you don't understand a word of the discussion.