The 2015 OPS Projections Thread

[MurphDogg]

I found this list of pinch running stolen base leaders since 2010: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/10/2/6889243/jarrod-dyson-pinch-runner-extraordinaire-kansas-city-royals-playoffs

Some pretty good stolen base rates on there.

So Dyson's rate is 78.8 percent as a pinch runner and 87 percent when not pinch-running. So the gap does seem fairly large. Even an elite a baserunner as Dyson barely beats the breakeven rate as a pinch runner.

Campana's rate is 84 percent as a pinch runner and 89 percent otherwise.

David Lough is certainly not Jarrod Dyson, that is for sure.

[Babypowder]

Lough started only 14 of KC's 30 games while he was on the roster in 2012. That's not what most people would define as "pretty much an everyday player."

Then I guess we are lucky I said 2013...

[Babypowder]

As to De Aza vs. Lough, I think it boils down to the fact that the Orioles believe he's the better offensive player. De Aza has a 100 OPS+ for his career, Lough is at 93. De Aza has a .330 career OBP, Lough is at .308. At .330, De Aza is a plausible leadoff guy, at .308, Lough is not.

In any event, Buck has a nice competitive situation this year with a lot of guys vying for playing time. They'll all get their opportunities, I suspect.

And yet in the last two seasons Lough has had wRC+ of 97 and 95 to De Aza's 98 and 94. That looks pretty similar to me. Factor in much better defense and better baserunning, plus cost savings and control, I still on't understand.

[Beef Supreme]

Then I guess we are lucky I said 2013...

2013, Lough started 80 of 124 games while on the MLB roster. Closer to everyday player.

And you could say he was pretty much an everyday player...from June 1 through August 21. Then, the Royals started pinch hitting for him in some games, using him as a defensive substitution in others. Lough had complete games in only 10 of the Royals final 37 games that year.