Fangraphs: Top 10 Worst Transactions of 2015 Off-Season

[Can_of_corn]

But he got 9.

Two million is a rounding error for the Yanks.

[OriolesMagic83]

Scherzer's contract is going to brutal at the end. $35 mill from 2019 to 2021 for a pitcher who will probably be a middle of rotation starter by then if he's not injured. I like Lester long-term a lot more than Scherzer. Nats are going all in this year. Scherzer's contract will only be worth it if Nats win WS.

[Can_of_corn]

Scherzer's contract is going to brutal at the end. $35 mill from 2019 to 2021 for a pitcher who will probably be a middle of rotation starter by then if he's not injured. I like Lester long-term a lot more than Scherzer. Nats are going all in this year. Scherzer's contract will only be worth it if Nats win WS.

A significant portion of his contract is deferred. They won't be paying 35 mil in 2020.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Well color me surprised.

Looking back on it this is probably a by product of bullpen roles.

Could it be also that the comparison pools are significantly different in size? Let's say there are 30 closers, if each team has a 7-man bullpen, that would be 180 other relievers (180 = 30 x (7-1)). Considering that, closers were FAR more likely to generate 2 rWAR than the typical bullpen arm.

[PaulFolk]

I believe that O'Day and Britton will outperform Andrew this season. As they did last season.

It's a real stretch to say that O'Day and Britton "outperformed" Miller last season. Why, because their ERAs were slightly lower? That's more than outweighed by the fact that Miller had a 14.9 strikeout rate (far better than O'Day's 9.6 and more than double Britton's 7.3) and that he allowed fewer base runners (0.802 WHIP, a bit better than both O'Day and Britton).

It's fine to predict that Britton and O'Day will outperform Miller in 2015. But they sure didn't in 2014.

[BohKnowsBmore]

It's a real stretch to say that O'Day and Britton "outperformed" Miller last season. Why, because their ERAs were slightly lower? That's more than outweighed by the fact that Miller had a 14.9 strikeout rate (far better than O'Day's 9.6 and more than double Britton's 7.3) and that he allowed fewer base runners (0.802 WHIP, a bit better than both O'Day and Britton).

It's fine to predict that Britton and O'Day will outperform Miller in 2015. But they sure didn't in 2014.

Part of that is that when Miller does allow hits/balls in play, they seem to be more dangerous than those allowed by Britton. Britton's WHIP was 0.90, by the way, so it's not as though it was poor or even that far behind Miller's. And I would argue that Britton's ability to induce the DP helps make up for any difference there.

[ledzepp8]

It's a real stretch to say that O'Day and Britton "outperformed" Miller last season. Why, because their ERAs were slightly lower? That's more than outweighed by the fact that Miller had a 14.9 strikeout rate (far better than O'Day's 9.6 and more than double Britton's 7.3) and that he allowed fewer base runners (0.802 WHIP, a bit better than both O'Day and Britton).

It's fine to predict that Britton and O'Day will outperform Miller in 2015. But they sure didn't in 2014.

O'Day 225 ERA+ 2.3 rWAR

Britton 233 ERA+ 2.5 rWAR

Miller 193 ERA+ 1.8 rWAR

[Babypowder]

O'Day 225 ERA+ 2.3 rWAR

Britton 233 ERA+ 2.5 rWAR

Miller 193 ERA+ 1.8 rWAR

Miller pitched in front of a much worse defense most of the year. fWAR has Miller at 2.3, Britton at 1.1, and O'Day at 0.9.

Miller was easily the best pitcher of the 3 of them last season. Britton and O'day were also good but they are propped up a bit by the defense playing behind them, just like the rest of the Orioles staff.

[waroriole]

Miller pitched in front of a much worse defense most of the year. fWAR has Miller at 2.3, Britton at 1.1, and O'Day at 0.9.

Miller was easily the best pitcher of the 3 of them last season. Britton and O'day were also good but they are propped up a bit by the defense playing behind them, just like the rest of the Orioles staff.

FWAR also significantly overvalues Ks.

[Babypowder]

FWAR also significantly overvalues Ks.

Perhaps, but to me that's better than giving pitchers too much credit for the guys playing behind them.

[waroriole]

Perhaps, but to me that's better than giving pitchers too much credit for the guys playing behind them.

I prefer a system that distinguishes between a ball hit off the wall and a slow roller back to the mound.

[MurphDogg]

Perhaps, but to me that's better than giving pitchers too much credit for the guys playing behind them.

The pitchers are aware of the quality of the defense behind them though. The pitcher on a team with good defense shouldn't be punished for having lower strikeout rates when they know they have a top defense behind them. It would certainly change my approach as a pitcher knowing that I have a top defense as opposed to a mediocre defense. My strikeout rate and my walk rate would decrease because I wouldn't need to pitch off the plate as much.

[Dipper9]

IF Miller closes (and stays scary good) he is probably worth it. Not worth it to us but worth it to the Yankee$.

First, regardless of anyone's feelings on how great Miller is, was, or ever will be, we just can't pay a one inning reliever $36 million. We just can't.

As for the Yanks, Miller could be Mariano Rivera for all I care, but the Yankees starters have to get him a lead in the 9th for it to matter. Good luck with that. For everyone complaining about our offseason and worried that our pitching can't hold up to last year, the Yankees rotation has so many IFs I can't even list them, but I'll start with Tanaka (will his arm hold up without getting the surgery last year) and Sabathia (the guy is old and getting fatter and hasn't had a real solid season for a few years now).

[Babypowder]

The pitchers are aware of the quality of the defense behind them though. The pitcher on a team with good defense shouldn't be punished for having lower strikeout rates when they know they have a top defense behind them. It would certainly change my approach as a pitcher knowing that I have a top defense as opposed to a mediocre defense. My strikeout rate and my walk rate would decrease because I wouldn't need to pitch off the plate as much.

I have found very little evidence of this actually occurring. For the most part, pitchers with high K rates continue to have high K rates after changing teams, and vice versa.

[MurphDogg]

I have found very little evidence of this actually occurring. For the most part, pitchers with high K rates continue to have high K rates after changing teams, and vice versa.

I must admit that I haven't studied it extensively and would be curious if anybody has.

But it would seem a given that pitchers with lower K rates benefit more from a team's great defense than pitchers with higher K rates. Combine that with the fact that pitchers with higher K rates tend to be more expensive than lower K rates then it would make sense for the Orioles, who have great defense, to not pay free agent prices for pitchers with high K rates, since those pitchers are worth more to teams with a defense that is not as stout.