Davis to Try Bunting vs. Shift

[Bradysburns]

I hope that the hitters who this has affected most have been spending the offseason figuring out a different strategy specifically to combat the shift strategy and that the advantage which temporarily went to the unprecedented use of extreme shifts last year will be compensated for by some of these hitters developing a way to put a ball past the pitcher ANYWHERE on the third base side. It doesn't have to be on the ground, or a bunt even, or a well struck ball, it just has to be plopped, dribbled, slapped, popped up ANYWHERE past the pitcher and it will be a hit.

There is also the psychological piece that made the shift even more effective against some hitters. It gets used against these dead pull hitters like Davis and Ortiz (and Ted Williams) who were dead stubborn about beating it "their way" and not "giving in." Some hitters, like Williams, handle that mental pressure better than others. Davis did not handle it AT ALL last year. They were in his head the whole season. Even now, I am sure he can recall every single time that he rocketed what he thought was a hit into the shift only to see it caught. Chris should use spring training not only to get practice in developing his own technique to hit some balls past the pitcher on the third base side, but to also give a psychological message to other pitchers that, yes, he can and will take the single every time.

It certainly would make sense. Could you imagine if he single-handedly ruined the shift by coming up with some nifty little flip-swing or something, or like a power bunt - just get it up the line on the ground or in the air. Normally you'd need to get that bunt down but with the 3B in deep right field (haha) you could just bump it out there without a problem.

[Can_of_corn]

Maybe that's the issue. These guys go up there with a plan at the plate. Some hitters get defensive and can go the opposite way. Other guys simply don't. I don't think CD changes his swing much, regardless of the count. But when he's really relaxed, he does hit a good number of balls the opposite way.

I bet that when he gets back into a groove he'll naturally start hitting more that way, too. I suspect when pull hitters struggle, they pull even harder. When they relax, they pull less viciously. No data on that, but it would seem to make sense.

But not on the ground. Verducci was on MLB channel today and said that Davis has five ground balls for hits to the left side of the infield in the last five years. The spray charts I have seen confirm this. He hits FL and line drives to all fields but not ground balls.

[srock]

The entire group of talking heads on MLB Network essential said. "This is a guy who has the very rare talent of being able to hit 50 home runs, giving him first base is a win for the pitcher."

Calling malarkey on this.

If he walks nobody complains its a win for the pitcher. And its the same thing. With runners on base its actually better to bunt then walk, potentially more total bases gained. And if the goal is advancing a runner from 1st to 3rd and very low chance of a double play and high chance runner gains 2 bases.

Situation bunting is the new trend, book it.

[osfan83]

I disagree. If Chris doesn't change his approach I would put all 7 fielders on the right side. All it will take is 4 or 5 bunts for base hits in April/May, and you will se the shift change.

If giving a power hitter a free base is a win for the pitcher, then why doesn't every team just walk every #4 hitter every time?

[MurphDogg]

I disagree. If Chris doesn't change his approach I would put all 7 fielders on the right side.

Look at the spray chart. He still hits fly balls and line drives to left field.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Yeah, except he didn't hit 50 last year, did he? I would have been happy to see a few more on base hits as he wasn't going to hit 50 the way he was doing it last year. Maybe it was not being healthy, or his focus, or whatever, but somewhere in there was also the marked increase in shift and the way they pitched him. If he gets back to swinging like 2013, then, fine. But, if not, he needs to take what he can give the team, not what he "might" have been able to do.

They quote you're responding to says that he "has the very rare talent of being able to hit 50 home runs." He has hit over 50 HR in a season, thus he does have that ability. He has been top-ten in the league each of the last three years in AB/HR. Despite his struggles in 2014, he is still a HR hitter, however you want to slice it.

Why is it that anyone who experiences success is bound to regress, but anyone who struggles has found their new normal?

[SeaBird]

Exactly what I came in here to say. I can't believe he can't learn to go the opposite field. Bunting seems extreme, though he's fairly fast for a big guy.

Thanks. I was wondering if he's fast. Especially out of the box?

But I'll believe he will bunt when I see it. The urge to go long will probably overcome him and he'll just whale away.

[srock]

But not on the ground. Verducci was on MLB channel today and said that Davis has five ground balls for hits to the left side of the infield in the last five years. The spray charts I have seen confirm this. He hits FL and line drives to all fields but not ground balls.

It certainly would make sense. Could you imagine if he single-handedly ruined the shift by coming up with some nifty little flip-swing or something, or like a power bunt - just get it up the line on the ground or in the air. Normally you'd need to get that bunt down but with the 3B in deep right field (haha) you could just bump it out there without a problem.

It is ridiculously difficult to intentionally hit a ground ball to a specific place unless the pitcher basically tells you what he is doing. Even then its not easy. Against batting practice pitching, sure its doable, but even then its probably hard to aim well enough. Remember there is till a guy around SS so just hitting it on the ground to opposite field isn't good enough.

Bunting is much easier method. A batter can bunt any pitch anywhere. Bunting still isn't easy, but its much easier then hitting in general.

[Frobby]

So Davis says he will bunt more often? My over/under for Davis bunt attempts this year is 6.5. Who wants the over?

[MurphDogg]

So Davis says he will bunt more often? My over/under for Davis bunt attempts this year is 6.5. Who wants the over?

Considering the fact that David Ortiz is well known for his willingness to bunt against the shift and he has only bunted more than twice in a season once (four times in 2006), I will definitely be taking the under.

[srock]

So Davis says he will bunt more often? My over/under for Davis bunt attempts this year is 6.5. Who wants the over?

While a good idea, it does seem unlikely Davis bunts very often. I'll take the over if I can include spring training PA's

He should bunt enough to keep pitchers honest and in some key situations.

[BarclaySouthway]

Ben Lindberg has been looking at bunts versus the shift in Baseball Prospectus and Grantland. These numbers come from his articles.

Batters were 27-for-50 on the bunts the laid down versus the shift in 2013.

Batters were 28-fo-49 through 6/27 of last year. I was unable to find anything after that date.

So, in a season and a half worth of data, batters were 55-for-99. And they were on pace to double their bunts from the year before. Would love to find an easy way to track this.

I would imagine we'll continue to see an increase in attempts with numbers like that. Which could lead to even more shifting around based on outs, count, runners.

http://http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-warning-the-shift/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24021

[srock]

Ben Lindberg has been looking at bunts versus the shift in Baseball Prospectus and Grantland. These numbers come from his articles.

Batters were 27-for-50 on the bunts the laid down versus the shift in 2013.

Batters were 28-fo-49 through 6/27 of last year. I was unable to find anything after that date.

So, in a season and a half worth of data, batters were 55-for-99. And they were on pace to double their bunts from the year before. Would love to find an easy way to track this.

I would imagine we'll continue to see an increase in attempts with numbers like that. Which could lead to even more shifting around based on outs, count, runners.

http://http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-warning-the-shift/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24021

55 for 99

.555 AVG

.555 OBP

.555 SLG

OPS = 1.11

I'll take that anyone vs. the shift.

[Hallas]

55 for 99

.555 AVG

.555 OBP

.555 SLG

OPS = 1.11

I'll take that anyone vs. the shift.

The SLG might be higher. Once in a blue moon a bunt results in a double. It's easier to hit a bunt double against the shift. Plus ROEs aren't counted, which definitely result in at least 1 base.

That said, bunting versus major league pitching can be kind of hard. It's not necessarily something just anyone can pick up.

[CA-ORIOLE]

55 for 99

.555 AVG

.555 OBP

.555 SLG

OPS = 1.11

I'll take that anyone vs. the shift.

The net effect is likely much worse as it doesn't take into account the strikes and deep counts that the batter is put in and doesn't bunt.