Draft Preview - BA Initial Issue Is Out

[hoosiers]

The Draft Preview issue of Baseball America came out last month.

I was out of work for some time in 2002 and followed that draft very closely – wanting the Os to draft Adam Loewen about two minutes into reading the initial Baseball America preview article around Jan/Feb 2002. I’ve followed the draft pretty closely after that.

Each year since, I have tried right here to guess the prospect the Orioles should draft each year. The only rule I had was to pick a player initially rated outside the Orioles selection slot from the BA initial draft preview. I have had pretty quality results identifying an initially under-rated prospect who moved up in the draft (though none of those players have moved on to major league success – yet).

In 2003, I chose Chris Lubanski who initially was projected around or outside tenth overall. KC selected him fifth. 2004 escapes me.

In 2005, I gave the kiss of death to Jordan Danks draft hopes. He was around fifteen overall and played so poorly leading up to the draft that he sent teams letters saying not to draft him. He went to Texas and was just rated the 40th best college prospect in the initial BA draft preview for the 2008 draft.

In 2006, I had better luck with Evan Longoria who Tampa Bay took third overall.

Last year, Josh Vitters moved up to be selected third overall.

Not bad. This year, the Os draft fourth overall. It will be difficult to project someone from outside the top four projected talents because the top four seem pretty well locked down. I’ve been salivating over the write-ups for Tim Beckham for over a year. It’s practically impossible to contemplate passing on him if he’s available when we pick. Similarly, it’s difficult to imagine Brian Matusz and Aaron Crow getting kicked outside the top five. These two college pitchers seem head and shoulders about the rest of the pitching crop entering this season in terms of durability/consistency, past success and plus stuff. As much as I like those three, BA rates Vanderbilt slugger Pedro Alvarez the best prospect prior to the 2008 college and HS seasons.

Miscellaneous BA notes and various opinions of mine are below:

Tampa Bay, KC and Pittsburgh draft ahead of us. I believe all three will pony up big coin this year for their picks, but I do not know if KC and Pitts will go to the $6M+ range that may be necessary to sign some of these top kids. I do believe there will be a college lean among these teams (and ours as well) to get someone who may contribute sooner than later.

I was thinking recently about last year’s lists and how Vitters and Moustakas moved into the top three. Perhaps there is a BA lean toward college prospects early in the season. This would be natural, IMO, since there has been better opportunity to scout the college players including HS, two years of college and in the summer leagues while the HS kids were probably mostly 17 during last summer’s circuits. As the draft approaches, the HS kids seem to move up more so than the college guys – just my opinion – not sure if true or not.

Our GM has hinted at drafting and developing pitchers as a priority though this does not necessarily refer to using a first round pick on a pitcher. BA recently ranked our pitching talent third overall and we have plenty of pitching talent between Frederick and Norfolk. I am firmly in the ‘draft the best player available’ camp, but I might not feel the need to add a pitcher to our current stable with our 08 first round pick if Erbe and/or Beato appear to be regaining their top prospect status prior to the draft.

There is a fairly strong representation of local talent in the rankings. I count three HSers in the top 40 HSers from DC and Delaware plus four prospects at Virginia or Navy in the top 66 college guys.

Among the top 50 college players ranked by college class, I count three Orioles drafted but unsigned prospects. The most notable is Tanner Sheppers from the 2005 draft who is a possible first round talent this year. A HS guy liked a lot by Joe Jordan, Dan Klein, from last year’s draft is at UCLA and rated 34th overall among college freshmen. We drafted Eryk McConnell at NCState in last year’s tenth round and he is currently rated 16th among college seniors. The Blue Jays and NYY have a similar amount of unsigned talent, but these lists are dominated by the Red Sox who drafted but did not sign three of the top 12 freshman and two of the top 25 juniors.

The BA Draft Preview was five full pages and was supplemented by a strong college preview section. I did do a good bit more research than normal to find a pre-season Hoosiers selection. The process is somewhat complicated by so many corner infielders (which I would prefer to avoid - five in the top 14 prospects per BA) and catchers (two in the top fifteen). Due to the Wieters pick last year, I would be surprised to see us go in that direction again. As I said above, the top four talents are so good, it’s difficult to really latch onto someone outside this group, but here goes:

For the top college positional talent, outside of Alvarez, there is only two 1B, one catcher and an OFer among the top 15 players. The significant possibilities at this point, IMO, would be the two 1B, Justin Smoak and Yonder Alonso. Smoak is a switch hitter with “big time” power – a phrase one must note when considering a Joe Jordan pick. However, I lean toward Alonso as a better pure hitter. Yonder also has walked 145 times in 687 collegiate at-bats. He led last year’s Cape Cod league in walks. He doesn’t appear to have Smoak’s present power, but I’ve read where it’s expected to develop. BA notes that Smoak went to the same HS as Wieters.

For the top college pitchers, it’s a good drop-off after Matusz and Crow, IMO. Christian Friedrich is BA’s ninth overall prospect right now – a LHP out of Eastern Kentucky with comps to Rich Hill of the Cubs. A potential fast riser is Ryan Perry who, per BA, had a great Cape Cod league after two average college seasons. Perry has a big-time FB.

On the HS pitcher side, Tim Melville, six-five, 205, RHP from Missouri is the best in class and winner of the Jackie Robinson Player of the Year. BA had a nice write-up on Alex Meyer – a six-seven RHP out of Indiana who has had a meteoric rise since pitching two scoreless innings at a Perfect Game showcase last year, but there’s too much risk there for me.

On the HS position player front, there’s three in the BA overall top 15 outside of Beckham. The highest is Eric Hosmer whom BA compares to Alonso with more power potential. There are nice comments on Kyle Skipworth – a catcher out of CA ranked twelth – and Harold Martinez – 3B out of Miami rates fourteenth overall. I would be surprised if we drafted a catcher and while Martinez plays SS now, he projects at 3B and Hosmer has it all over Martinez as a hitter, IMO.

(BTW, google searches on the above names can provide a lot of information very quickly, as does the draft section Greg has developed here.)

So, I’m conflicted with my projection pick due to the following:

- I get the impression AM may be a heavy college pitcher lean under most circumstances.

- Jordan seems to prefer pure hitters with power potential (Snyder, Wieters more so than Rowell)

- Our system has currently major holes in the middle infield.

- It would be nice to draft a college player capable of contributing around 2011 when we hope to compete again.

- I think, at the current time and I’ll say it for the hundredth time (something I’ll probably regret in June), the write-ups on the top four guys are pretty special. If I didn't limit my choices to outside the BA top four, I'd go with Beckham in a heartbeat.

The best cases for cracking the top guys can be made by the guys right outside the top four at this time – Smoak, Melville, Alonso, Hosmer and Friedrich. If Friedrich projects as a 2, he’d be difficult to pass on, IMO. Still, as much as I think we will lean toward a college player, I will note that the best HS bats recently have moved quickly through the minor leagues and stick with last year’s formula and take ...... Eric Hosmer.

Hosmer is six-four, 210 and appears to be a quality defensive 1B. Write-ups on Hosmer, including one that will make you salivate at pgcrosschecker.com, hint that he is one of the best HS bats to come along in several years.

[Greg Pappas]

Good post.

We have a lot in common Hoosiers, in that we both follow the draft process so closely. It's truly a pleasure to review the talent available and try to determine which players could be future Orioles, and which players you think wll be the best players.

I thoroughly enjoyed reading your post, for it shows a real passion for the draft. I'm appreciative of Tony-OH for allowing this forum, as I notice quite obviously the difference in threads/topics being discussed here in the Draft forum, as opposed to those same things in the Minors forum in years past. I guess people feel more inclined to research and discuss these young men, delving into the often undervalued component of new player acquisition. My schedule is rough, but I'm trying as you are to keep up with all the happenings as concerns the draft AND the minors camp AND the ST results/performances. Not easy...

Again, good post.

[WebLink21]

Nice post. I think if the O's are going to take a first basemen though, they sould go for the best college bat at his position and go with Smoak. He will be ready alot sooner than Hosmer and I think he is more of a "known" player. I think that Hosmer may have a higher ceiling, but I think with Smoak you can pencil him in most seasons are .290 with 30-35 HR's and 100-120 RBI's. Plus you know you will be getting a really well played 1B. I may be a little biased though. Just look at my avatar.

[bluehens45]

Fantastic post hoosiers. I love reading and talking the draft.

Through the early part of season my rankings for who to pick at #4.

1A. Alvarez, With the injury maybe he slides

1B. Smoak, He has vaulted to the top of my list.

2. Matusz, He's going to be a stud

3A. Beckham, 5 tool player and a position of need

3B. Hosmer, i have been high on him for a few months

I think it comes down to Smoak and Beckham. I could see us going either way and i would be fine with either player. I would actually be very happy with any of the players i listed. I think Tampa goes with Matusz #1. I think KC will go local with Melville or Crowe. Pitt is going to be really hard to judge there known for not going over slot but with some new FO people i think they make a big splash with a position of need and go Alvarez. Leaving us with the decision between Smoak and Beckham. If i picked today it would be no doubt Smoak but its earily and by the time the season is over we could very easily be salivating over Beckham like we are with Smoak now.