Why trade Roberts?

[NCRaven]

Now that the trade speculation is dying off, I'm wondering why we were trying so hard to move him.

Roberts had one of the best days that we could ever expect out of him today, and we lost by 4 runs. That's why we should trade him. We are going to lose 90+ games this year and probably next year and lose him for nothing. So get max value now, while you can.

[Fairfax Bird]

Roberts had one of the best days that we could ever expect out of him today, and we lost by 4 runs. That's why we should trade him. We are going to lose 90+ games this year and probably next year and lose him for nothing. So get max value now, while you can.

This is exactly correct.

[Owatcher]

Well at least I give you credit for admitting I was right when I said you're really not being realistic about this.

Your comment about the Cubs not matching up is really just another way of saying I want too much. The Cubs have matches at every single position of need for the O's.

The problem is, you want multiple holes filled, AND you want them all filled with blue-chippers. Not gonna happen. If you want 3-5 guys for Roberts, then you're going to be getting exactly the caliber of talent the Cubs are offering. In that regard the match is just about perfect.

Cubs don't have any "blue chip" prospects. They needed to offer atleast 1 and they couldn't even do that. That's why Roberts is still an O, went 2-2 w/ 2 BB while Murton, Marshall, Gallagher, Patterson are in Iowa and Cedeno is buried on the bench because he doesn't have any options left (and they couldn't bring themselves to release him to the O's for free).

[Owatcher]

No problem. Who do you like? Murton? Patterson? Burke? Colvin? Who?

There are all kinds of options available. You just can't have them all. If you put in a bat, then Ceda comes out. Fine with us.

AM wants at least 1 legitimate talent for Roberts. Not a bunch of "cross your fingers and hope" type of guys. Pie & a pitcher or two and the deal get's done. Just ask Hendry.

[Owatcher]

Once again you miss the point.

Where the Cubs system is ranked is irrelevant. So what if other teams that have no need for Roberts have better prospects, or if teams with a need won't give up their better prospects? What good does that do the O's?

And that's exactly the situation we have. Regardless of who's got what, the Cubs have the most they're actually willing to part with. That much seems clear.

You expect that situation to change. You've offered no real reason why.

Meanwhile the reasons to believe the offers for Roberts may decline include, but are not limited to:

* the risk of injury

* the risk of a performance dropoff

* the risk of age-related decline

* the risk that the only serious suitor may drop out of the bidding out of exasperation

* the possibility that other teams will look at what transpired with the Cubs and not even bother engaging the O's in discussions

* the simple fact that Roberts' contract is approaching its expiration

* the simple fact that in the last, oh, decade, no player that compares similarly to Roberts on talent/skillset/position/age/contract etc. has been traded for more than the Cubs are offering. Many have been traded for less, though.

AM is obviously comfortable facing the risks. Many of us O's fans are as well.

[allstar1579]

As fans, we are emotional people, and we are panicking that we will get the most out of Brian by trading him today before anything bad happens. Like many have said, however, it is also possible that he goes out and raises his trade value by having a great year. It is also possible that a contender loses a 2B for the year and has no in house replacements. These are just as likely as any of the pessimistic "oh what if he slumps, what if he gets hurt" cries.

Can't we just enjoy the fact that today is opening day, baseball is upon us, Brian is an Oriole today, and we should cheer for him. If he gets traded, great, I hope it's for some really helpful pieces, if not, great, I love watching him play.

But seriously, it's time to let this, and all other Roberts to the Cubs debates ride off into the sunset so that this can be a happier site to visit, and we can get back to just enjoying baseball.

[davearm]

Seems you have done the research, please go on and share these "many" trades that have gotten less value. I would love to see who you compare Roberts to in talent, skillset, position, age, and contract.

Luis Castillo for Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler (December 2005)

Luis Castillo for Dustin Martin and Drew Butera (July 2007)

Edgar Renteria for Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez (November 2007)

Edgar Renteria for Andy Marte (December 2005)

Placido Polanco for Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez (June 2005)

Julio Lugo for Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza (July 2006)

Ray Durham for Jon Adkins (July 2002)

Eric Young for Pedro Astacio (August 1997)

Eric Young for Terry Adams, Chad Ricketts and Brian Stephenson (December 1999)

Randy Winn for Antonio Perez (October 2002)

Randy Winn for Jesse Foppert and Yorvit Torrealba (July 2005)

Felipe Lopez (plus Austin Kearns) for basically two relievers (Majewski and Bray) (July 2006)

Tad Iguchi for Michael Dubee (July 2007)

Johnny Damon (with Mark Ellis) for Angel Berroa, A.J. Hinch and Roberto Hernandez (January 2001)

[Crazysilver03]

Luis Castillo for Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler (December 2005)

Luis Castillo for Dustin Martin and Drew Butera (July 2007)

Edgar Renteria for Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez (November 2007)

Edgar Renteria for Andy Marte (December 2005)

Placido Polanco for Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez (June 2005)

Julio Lugo for Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza (July 2006)

Ray Durham for Jon Adkins (July 2002)

Eric Young for Pedro Astacio (August 1997)

Eric Young for Terry Adams, Chad Ricketts and Brian Stephenson (December 1999)

Randy Winn for Antonio Perez (October 2002)

Randy Winn for Jesse Foppert and Yorvit Torrealba (July 2005)

Felipe Lopez (plus Austin Kearns) for basically two relievers (Majewski and Bray) (July 2006)

Tad Iguchi for Michael Dubee (July 2007)

Johnny Damon (with Mark Ellis) for Angel Berroa, A.J. Hinch and Roberto Hernandez (January 2001)

You do realize that quite a few of these were salary or player dumps, right?

Both times Luis Castillo was traded, it was more to move his salary than try and get talent for him.

Polanco was traded way undervalue so the Phillies could play Utley.

Iguchi was traded by the Sox because they knew he was going to leave and wanted to get him on a winning team, besides, this one is really reaching.

[davearm]

You do realize that quite a few of these were salary or player dumps, right?

Both times Luis Castillo was traded, it was more to move his salary than try and get talent for him.

Polanco was traded way undervalue so the Phillies could play Utley.

Iguchi was traded by the Sox because they knew he was going to leave and wanted to get him on a winning team, besides, this one is really reaching.

You're welcome to offer up some better comps.

Here are some of the resources I used:

MLB.com trade deadline coverage 2003

MLB.com trade deadline coverage 2004

MLB.com trade deadline coverage 2005

MLB.com trade deadline coverage 2006

MLB.com trade deadline coverage 2007

baseball-reference.com lists transactions and comps for everyone

[Fairfax Bird]

Luis Castillo for Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler (December 2005)

Luis Castillo for Dustin Martin and Drew Butera (July 2007)

Edgar Renteria for Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez (November 2007)

Edgar Renteria for Andy Marte (December 2005)

Placido Polanco for Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez (June 2005)

Julio Lugo for Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza (July 2006)

Ray Durham for Jon Adkins (July 2002)

Eric Young for Pedro Astacio (August 1997)

Eric Young for Terry Adams, Chad Ricketts and Brian Stephenson (December 1999)

Randy Winn for Antonio Perez (October 2002)

Randy Winn for Jesse Foppert and Yorvit Torrealba (July 2005)

Felipe Lopez (plus Austin Kearns) for basically two relievers (Majewski and Bray) (July 2006)

Tad Iguchi for Michael Dubee (July 2007)

Johnny Damon (with Mark Ellis) for Angel Berroa, A.J. Hinch and Roberto Hernandez (January 2001)

I'll give you these players as players that hold as much value as Roberts. Renteria only because he is a good defensive SS. He isn't the offensive force that Roberts is as a lead-off hitter. Damon is his equal and that was a terrible trade for the Royals, however, Berroa fell flat on his face and was a very good prospect. Comparing Tad Iguchi is very funny. Randy Winn was a good offensive player, but not a lead-off hitter and therefore not comparable, but they got a pretty good deal for him. Foppert was supposed to be a stud. Ray Durham had an expiring contract. Julio Lugo was good, but not the player that Roberts is. Castillo is good, but again an expiring contract and his legs aren't what they used to be.

What we have learned is that I probably overvalue Roberts and you definitely undervalue Roberts.

[Sports Guy]

Dave's crusade to find a similar trade is such a waste of time.

The Cubs have already offered much more than most of the trades he has said.

[baltfan]

Luis Castillo for Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler (December 2005)

Luis Castillo for Dustin Martin and Drew Butera (July 2007)

Edgar Renteria for Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez (November 2007)

Edgar Renteria for Andy Marte (December 2005)

Placido Polanco for Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez (June 2005)

Julio Lugo for Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza (July 2006)

Ray Durham for Jon Adkins (July 2002)

Eric Young for Pedro Astacio (August 1997)

Eric Young for Terry Adams, Chad Ricketts and Brian Stephenson (December 1999)

Randy Winn for Antonio Perez (October 2002)

Randy Winn for Jesse Foppert and Yorvit Torrealba (July 2005)

Felipe Lopez (plus Austin Kearns) for basically two relievers (Majewski and Bray) (July 2006)

Tad Iguchi for Michael Dubee (July 2007)

Johnny Damon (with Mark Ellis) for Angel Berroa, A.J. Hinch and Roberto Hernandez (January 2001)

The above is the single best argument that I have seen for not trading Roberts. Almost all of the players above are garbage. Your argument that the Cubs offer is in line with past offers on similar players simply isn't very compelling given this list. I would rather the Orioles keep Roberts and take a chance in the draft with compensation picks.

[Cubsfan]

Cubs don't have any "blue chip" prospects. They needed to offer atleast 1 and they couldn't even do that. That's why Roberts is still an O, went 2-2 w/ 2 BB while Murton, Marshall, Gallagher, Patterson are in Iowa and Cedeno is buried on the bench because he doesn't have any options left (and they couldn't bring themselves to release him to the O's for free).

Where's Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, etc.? Oh they're in the minors too, so they must not be worth anything either.

[Cubsfan]

AM wants at least 1 legitimate talent for Roberts. Not a bunch of "cross your fingers and hope" type of guys. Pie & a pitcher or two and the deal get's done. Just ask Hendry.

One minute you guys are bragging how your OF is set for years and you need MI players and not pitchers. Your GM asks for 3 pitchers and a SS, rejecting other IF and OF names. Your suggestion is for another OF and a pitcher or two, ignoring your MI problems and adding to your "glut" of young pitchers and OFs. I'm sure that all of the combinations and permutations of players offered at some point would have included Patterson and Cedeno in addition to other players. I'm sure Murton was offered and rejected earlier in the negotiations. I think what all of you are forgetting is that stockpiling good young pitchers can lead to a trade for a good young MI. All of you want a young version (future all-star) of Brian Roberts back in the deal, but there's no guarantees when you're trading for prospects. McPhail did a good job in trading Tejada and Bedard for 10 prospects, but they could all end up failures.

[davearm]

Dave's crusade to find a similar trade is such a waste of time.

The Cubs have already offered much more than most of the trades he has said.

Actually that's the whole point.

Refreshing to see we're in agreement for once.