Why trade Roberts?

[Knife_Dixon]

Once again you miss the point.

Where the Cubs system is ranked is irrelevant. So what if other teams that have no need for Roberts have better prospects, or if teams with a need won't give up their better prospects? What good does that do the O's?

And that's exactly the situation we have. Regardless of who's got what, the Cubs have the most they're actually willing to part with. That much seems clear.

You expect that situation to change. You've offered no real reason why.

Meanwhile the reasons to believe the offers for Roberts may decline include, but are not limited to:

* the risk of injury

* the risk of a performance dropoff

* the risk of age-related decline

* the risk that the only serious suitor may drop out of the bidding out of exasperation

* the possibility that other teams will look at what transpired with the Cubs and not even bother engaging the O's in discussions

* the simple fact that Roberts' contract is approaching its expiration

* the simple fact that in the last, oh, decade, no player that compares similarly to Roberts on talent/skillset/position/age/contract etc. has been traded for more than the Cubs are offering. Many have been traded for less, though.

If I may interject, I was hoping that you can clarify your position on this. You are saying that the O's should take the best deal out there regardless of whether they actually want what is being offered?

[davearm]

If I may interject, I was hoping that you can clarify your position on this. You are saying that the O's should take the best deal out there regardless of whether they actually want what is being offered?

My position is that the the O's should take the best deal out there, because their asset is likely to depreciate and be worth less later.

We're not dealing with a situation where they don't want what's being offered. They want what's being offered, plus a little more.

By being greedy, they're at risk of having to settle for what's being offered, or less... possibly much less... at some point down the road, for any/all of the reasons listed.

[Fairfax Bird]

Actually that's the whole point.

Refreshing to see we're in agreement for once.

Yeah, thanks for doing the research, even if I think your undervaluing Roberts, I still think the offer that was reported 4 for 1 for Roberts was more than fair and certainly a better offer than the Renteria and Damon deals.

[Crazysilver03]

Where's Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, etc.? Oh they're in the minors too, so they must not be worth anything either.

Not that I think it is a particularly good argument, from you or Owatcher, but look at the details.

Longoria and Bruce are the two top offense prospects in all of baseball. Neither one has hit the majors yet. Longoria, could be in the majors right now, but the Rays want him to get about another months worth of seasoning in the minors, as well as limiting his service clock, which isnt a bad thing. The Reds went out and got Corey Patterson to fill in for CF until Bruce is ready to step in. He showed in ST that he needed a little more time in the minors. When they come up they are here to stay in the majors.

Now, for Murton, Marshall, Gallagher, and Patterson. Each one of them has snipped the big leagues, but none of them have been good enough to force there way on to the team. The Cubs loaded up on veteran pitching, forcing Gallagher and Marshall back to the minors, after the failed attempt at trying to move them to short relief on short notice.

Patterson and Murton also havent forced their way onto the team. But that isnt entirely their fault, because some of the contracts of the veterans makes it impossible for them to push their way on the team.

For me, it comes back to Scott Moore forcing his way on the team in place of Jay Gibbons. Before long, we could see Nolan Reimold forcing his way on to the team at the expense of Jay Payton and Kevin Millar.

[Crazysilver03]

Yeah, thanks for doing the research, even if I think your undervaluing Roberts, I still think the offer that was reported 4 for 1 for Roberts was more than fair and certainly a better offer than the Renteria and Damon deals.

I dont know. I think I would rather have Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez than Marshall, Gallagher, Cedeno, and whoever else.

[davearm]

I dont know. I think I would rather have Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez than Marshall, Gallagher, Cedeno, and whoever else.

I like Jurrjens a lot and would give him a slight edge over Gallagher, but Hernandez, while interesting, is still an A-ball OF.

Put it this way -- Ceda is another A-ball guy that's getting a lot of attention, and Ceda's being offered with two other pretty good, more advanced guys (Cedeno and Veal). That just crushes Hernandez by himself.

[Knife_Dixon]

We're not dealing with a situation where they don't want what's being offered.

Isn't that really all we do know? How many times on this board alone have we seen a consensus as to some player or combination of players being offered in a trade only to find out it isn't remotely true? The Bedard to Dodgers trade speculation comes to mind

I think the point some people are trying to make here is that an offer is only fair if both parties want whats being offered by the other. Maybe its greed maybe its just that MacPhail wasn't enamored with any of the guys offered and willing to take a gamble knowing the consolation prize (draft picks or whatever is offered at the deadline or off-season) probably isn't much less than what is being offered by the Cubs now. It may not be what I would do but I don't see how anyone can think it unreasonable.

[davearm]

Isn't that really all we do know? How many times on this board alone have we seen a consensus as to some player or combination of players being offered in a trade only to find out it isn't remotely true? The Bedard to Dodgers trade speculation comes to mind

I think the point some people are trying to make here is that an offer is only fair if both parties want whats being offered by the other. Maybe its greed maybe its just that MacPhail wasn't enamored with any of the guys offered and willing to take a gamble knowing the consolation prize (draft picks or whatever is offered at the deadline or off-season) probably isn't much less than what is being offered by the Cubs now. It may not be what I would do but I don't see how anyone can think it unreasonable.

If MacPhail didn't want what's being offered by the Cubs, then this thing would've been dead a long time ago.

Obviously there's mutual interest here, regardless of which specific players are involved.

[clapdiddy]

If MacPhail didn't want what's being offered by the Cubs, then this thing would've been dead a long time ago.

Obviously there's mutual interest here, regardless of which specific players are involved.

Agreed. If it was me, I'd take the four (though I'd prefer Patterson to Cedeno) and run. I'd then try to find another second baseman/shortstop from another organization and use young arms to try to get that player.

[Methodology]

I like Jurrjens a lot and would give him a slight edge over Gallagher, but Hernandez, while interesting, is still an A-ball OF.

Put it this way -- Ceda is another A-ball guy that's getting a lot of attention, and Ceda's being offered with two other pretty good, more advanced guys (Cedeno and Veal). That just crushes Hernandez by himself.

You are right because the situation with Renteria is an exact replica to the Roberts situation.

The Braves no longer saw a need for Renteria and wanted Cabrera to take over at short. In return the Braves received the Tigers #4 prospect according to Sickels (Jair Jurrjens, RHP, B- (Good arm but will need additional time)) along with the Tiger's #5 prospect (Gorkys Hernandez, OF, B- (very toolsy, young, strong GCL numbers)).

For the Cubs and O's to make a deal the Cubs are going to have to give up more than they are willing to make up for the fact that the Cubs do not have the pieces or match up well with the O's in terms of team needs. The Cubs fans are right that they have offered a fair offer, however the offer does not fill any key holes and does not include a very high ceiling player that would make the trade worthwhile.

Dave try looking at this trade from both sides rather than just the Cubs side. Just because the Cubs are giving up fair value does not mean that the trade is a good trade for the Orioles. Unless McPhail has some other moves in mind to obtain some MI help or OF depth then he should probably accept the trade the Cubs have "offered" that included Ceda.

[Harry Carry]

Dave's crusade to find a similar trade is such a waste of time.

The Cubs have already offered much more than most of the trades he has said.

This trade needs to happen for both teams. The Cubs need Roberts and he is the Orioles last true trade chip. I agree with Sports Guy the longer Roberts is in a Orioles uniform his value goes down a little. There is a risk in trading for any teams suspects but AM is in a position were he needs to get back high potential guys and continue his rebuilding process.

[davearm]

You are right because the situation with Renteria is an exact replica to the Roberts situation.

The Braves no longer saw a need for Renteria and wanted Cabrera to take over at short. In return the Braves received the Tigers #4 prospect according to Sickels (Jair Jurrjens, RHP, B- (Good arm but will need additional time)) along with the Tiger's #5 prospect (Gorkys Hernandez, OF, B- (very toolsy, young, strong GCL numbers)).

For the Cubs and O's to make a deal the Cubs are going to have to give up more than they are willing to make up for the fact that the Cubs do not have the pieces or match up well with the O's in terms of team needs. The Cubs fans are right that they have offered a fair offer, however the offer does not fill any key holes and does not include a very high ceiling player that would make the trade worthwhile.

Dave try looking at this trade from both sides rather than just the Cubs side. Just because the Cubs are giving up fair value does not mean that the trade is a good trade for the Orioles. Unless McPhail has some other moves in mind to obtain some MI help or OF depth then he should probably accept the trade the Cubs have "offered" that included Ceda.

In terms of value, Renteria and Roberts are indeed useful comps.

And the O's no longer have a need for Roberts since they won't be competitive during the life of his contract.

The situations are very similar, actually.

So as you've shown, according to Sickels the Braves got 2 B- prospects for Renteria, #s 4 and 5 in the Tigers' system.

The reported Cubs' offer is for #s 3 (Gallagher), 4 (Patterson, although could be Cedeno instead), 7 (Veal), and 9 (Ceda), with grades of B, B, B- and B-.

So a quick-and-dirty assessment shows the Cubs are offering more than twice the value of the Tigers' package! 2 B- grade guys, PLUS two B grade guys!

And I am looking at the deal from the O's side:

* The O's have got strong motivation to find a deal, because Roberts' value has a limited shelflife.

* MacPhail has shown a clear preference for pitching, and this deal is rich in it.

* The O's also need at least one MI, and the Cubs have several ML-ready ones to choose from.

* If OF depth is a need, then Matt Murton is a perfect fit.

I've seen folks claim the match here is not good, but that's simply not true. The Cubs have exactly what the O's need/want, UNLESS what you want is a bunch of studs, and quite frankly, that's not coming from anyone. Just look at the several trades I've shown if you're not convinced of this.

[Camden_yardbird]

This trades needs to happen for both teams. The Cubs need Roberts and he is the Orioles last true trade chip. I agree with Sports Guy the longer Roberts is in a Orioles uniform his value goes down a little. There is a risk in trading for any teams suspects but AM is in a position were he needs to get back high potential guys and continue his rebuilding process.

I disagree with this. I think that a certain aspect of his trade value goes down. Namely the time his new team would be able to hold on to him reduces the longer he is with the O's. In that I agree. However part of his trade value, applying basic economics theory, is in how many teams are interested in Roberts. At this time that is one team, so there is no competition in the market.

I think competition in the market (raising trade value) will far outwiegh the time the new team has Roberts (decreasing trade value) in the long run. If two or more teams become interested in Roberts come the trade deadline which I think is very possible then I am confident AM can drive his trade value up.

[Sports Guy]

Actually that's the whole point.

Refreshing to see we're in agreement for once.

And my point is, BRob is obviously looked at in much higher regard than those guys are and therefore, he should get more in a trade than those and past trades don't really matter.

[Harry Carry]

I disagree with this. I think that a certain aspect of his trade value goes down. Namely the time his new team would be able to hold on to him reduces the longer he is with the O's. In that I agree. However part of his trade value, applying basic economics theory, is in how many teams are interested in Roberts. At this time that is one team, so there is no competition in the market.

I think competition in the market (raising trade value) will far outwiegh the time the new team has Roberts (decreasing trade value) in the long run. If two or more teams become interested in Roberts come the trade deadline which I think is very possible then I am confident AM can drive his trade value up.

What happens as the trade line gets closer contending teams are saving there best suspects for Pitching 1st and a power hiting run producer. IMO that's why Roberts value is higher to the Cubs now. AT the trade deadline Hendry might feel and with all probabilty he needs another starting pitcher. With that being said injuries can happen to other contending teams and more teams might have a need for Roberts. IMO that's what AM has to way does he feel a better deal will come about by waiting.