Dan Connolly: How Orioles Management Failed to Construct a Winning Roster

[Frobby]

After a while they start tuning them out.

Ahh, I don't know if it's that simple. Anyway, here is a breakdown of fangraphs' Defense by position (2015 vs. 2014):

1B: -7.6 vs. -6.9

2B: -4.4 vs. 6.0

SS: 13.5 vs. 19.4

3B: 9.4 vs. 1.8

LF: -9.2 vs. 7.3

CF: 4.3 vs. 15.2

RF: -7.8 vs. -0.7

C: 12.3 vs. 14.2

Worse at every position except 3B (with Manny playing 162 games instead of 82). The big deficits at SS and CF are largely due to the games missed by Hardy and Jones.

Hardy: 12.8 in 113 games vs. 20.4 in 141 games.

Jones: 8.7 in 137 games vs. 10.2 in 159 games.

Parra has been a defensive disaster according to fangraphs: -6.2 in RF and -2.5 in CF.

[tntoriole]

Still, he loses credibility when he harps on Markakis. He's just an average player - paying him would have been a stupid decision - knowing he needed surgery on his neck.

Yeah, well, that "neck" has somehow played 155 games in right and hit .296 in the leadoff slot for the Braves. I think Nick will derive a certain satisfaction from overperforming in the fourth year and I hope he does. Unlike Travis, DeAza, et.al. Or Hardy, for that matter.

[tntoriole]

I thought this point at the close of the article was interesting:

I do think there's some truth here. 47 unearned runs vs. 36 last year, -5.2 fangraphs Defense vs. +41.9 last year, 47 outs on the bases vs. 38 last year. It is a point we haven't discussed much around here, especially the fact that the defense wasn't nearly as good (though we made fewer errors).

Agree..particularly as it looks like if we win today, that 6 more wins would have gotten us into the wildcard. I also agree that starting pitching has been the primary fail this year, but having Cruz's output and having Markakis 180 hits would have led to enough runs to have overcome the bad pitching for at least 6 more wins, imho.

[Frobby]

Yeah, well, that "neck" has somehow played 155 games in right and hit .296 in the leadoff slot for the Braves. I think Nick will derive a certain satisfaction from overperforming in the fourth year and I hope he does. Unlike Travis, DeAza, et.al. Or Hardy, for that matter.

Nick's durability is pretty amazing. I can't blame Duquette for not wanting to risk a four-year deal on a guy having neck surgery, but I'm glad Nick was able to get through it and play almost every game this year. I do think we miss him a lot more than many WAR fanatics appreciate.

[Can_of_corn]

Nick's durability is pretty amazing. I can't blame Duquette for not wanting to risk a four-year deal on a guy having neck surgery, but I'm glad Nick was able to get through it and play almost every game this year. I do think we miss him a lot more than many WAR fanatics appreciate.

Fanatics?

You word choice disappoints me.

[Frobby]

Fanatics?

You word choice disappoints me.

What word would you prefer? All I mean is that you can't rely on WAR as the only measure of a player's value or impact on a team.

[tntoriole]

Nick's durability is pretty amazing. I can't blame Duquette for not wanting to risk a four-year deal on a guy having neck surgery, but I'm glad Nick was able to get through it and play almost every game this year. I do think we miss him a lot more than many WAR fanatics appreciate.

Although his power is down, I was in Miami last week and saw him turn on and pulverize first pitch from Jose Fernandez last week and play headsup defense in a meaningless game. You do have to wonder what 180 hits at the top and then Machado, Jones, Davis and Cruz might have ben able to overcomein some of the bad pitching efforts. And we still would have Zach Davies, Steven Brault, Stephen Tarpley...

[Going Underground]

If Dan went to Toronto and they won the division, he would have been considered a really good GM.You are only as smart as the last season.

[tntoriole]

If Dan went to Toronto and they won the division, he would have been considered a really good GM.You are only as smart as the last season.

He would have been President, not GM. And you wonder if he would have even made or authorized the trade deadline deals that really pushed Jays into a different gear as trade deadline deals have not been his strong suit. But, DD will get another chance to have a better offseason than this past one...but I predict it will be his last opportunity if his choices turn out as poorly this time.

[Can_of_corn]

What word would you prefer? All I mean is that you can't rely on WAR as the only measure of a player's value or impact on a team.

And who exactly does that here?

[DrungoHazewood]

What word would you prefer? All I mean is that you can't rely on WAR as the only measure of a player's value or impact on a team.

Who are these people? Do they overlap with the anti-FIP fanatics?

[El Gordo]

Trading Norris alone would have improved that. Remember, I was a strong Norris supporter. So this is not me revising history.

Because it was obvious that he would be so bad this season?

[Can_of_corn]

Because it was obvious that he would be so bad this season?

Because they had six similar starters and he was the only one that was both right handed and in his walk year.

[El Gordo]

What word would you prefer? All I mean is that you can't rely on WAR as the only measure of a player's value or impact on a team.

Try pedagogues next time.

[spiritof66]

Yep. That's saying that in the most blinders-on, narrow, optimistic view of the deals they were stupid. But I need to sell papers, so we'll go with that one.

Maybe we're saying the same thing, but I look at this aspect of the piece as, "It would be too complicated for me to analyze the future impact of these signings, so let's look at it in a simplistic way that no responsible GM (or manager of any business business) would use.

The other problem with hindsight looks at these decisions is that they tend to assume that the Orioles could have signed any (or all) of three by meeting the offers they took. We really don't know whether the Mariners, Braves or (especially) the Yankees would have offered more if the Orioles had pushed the bidding upward. So signing them have required more dollars (or years) than everyone assumes.