Os Sign O'Day for 4 Years - It's official

[Can_of_corn]

Show me the SP or OFer you're going to get for 4/30 who isn't a "marginal gain."

I was in favor of investigating signing Kang last year and putting him in the outfield.

Does that count?

I think he would have served as more then a marginal gain over who they had out there last season.

It also isn't as simple as 4/30 and you know it.

The O's signed Cruz to a 1/8 deal and he was more then a marginal gain.

How much did Pearce make in 2014? He was more then a marginal gain.

[Can_of_corn]

Until some deadline deals they had a sub-replacement 2B, a replacement-level DH, and a starter with a 5.95 ERA.

Holes at the trade deadline and holes in December are two different things.

Did they go into the season expecting that type of production?

[Pickles]

Holes at the trade deadline and holes in December are two different things.

Did they go into the season expecting that type of production?

They went into the season w a 37 year old Jeremy Guthrie penciled into the rotation.

Does that count?

[Pickles]

I was in favor of investigating signing Kang last year and putting him in the outfield.

Does that count?

I think he would have served as more then a marginal gain over who they had out there last season.

It also isn't as simple as 4/30 and you know it.

The O's signed Cruz to a 1/8 deal and he was more then a marginal gain.

How much did Pearce make in 2014? He was more then a marginal gain.

So basically it's possible to get production for next to nothing.

Terrific.

Then the O'Day contract should definitely not be a burden.

Now, we just have to master that crystal ball.

[Can_of_corn]

They went into the season w a 37 year old Jeremy Guthrie penciled into the rotation.

Does that count?

Would you rather enter the season with a 37 year old Guthrie or Mike Wright?

[Pickles]

Would you rather enter the season with a 37 year old Guthrie or Mike Wright?

It's 12/8. Barring injury, Mike Wright won't be in the OD rotation.

They also went into the season w the corpse of Omar Infante and Alex Rios in the everyday lineup.

[DrungoHazewood]

Holes at the trade deadline and holes in December are two different things.

Did they go into the season expecting that type of production?

Guthrie's three-year FIP average prior to 2015 was something like 4.75. Infante had been worth 0.5 fWAR in 575 PAs in 2014. Rios was worth 0.1 fWAR in 525 PAs in 2014. I'm sure they were expecting some bouncebacks from players who were basically replacement-level previously.

[Frobby]

Right. And if either side is ahead by 3 or more runs then the difference between a shut down pen and a mediocre pen might be one win.

Maybe, but there are an awful lot of games where teams aren't leading by 3+ runs when the bullpen comes into the game.

It seems to me, instinctively, that if bullpens pitch 35% of the innings in MLB, I'd expect the combined salaries of the bullpen guys league wide to be about 35% of what all pitchers earn. Results will vary by team depending on where the young talent is on that team. I don't know how close that is to reality.

Edit: per this article in fangraphs, in 2014 the median team spent 28.65% of their payroll on starting pitching, 14.75% on the bullpen. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-payroll-allocation-by-position/ The ratio of 14.75/43.40 = 33.9% is very close to what I expected, and seems pretty rational to me.

[24fps]

Fun fact of the day: O'Day has allowed 60 runs in his four-year Oriole career. Brian Matusz allowed 60 runs in 49+ innings in 2011.

Well thank goodness he got that out of his system. Full speed ahead on getting Brian back in the rotation, then.

Yes I'm kidding. Why does this notion keep cropping up?

[DrungoHazewood]

Well thank goodness he got that out of his system. Full speed ahead on getting Brian back in the rotation, then.

Yes I'm kidding. Why does this notion keep cropping up?

Becase he once had a 3 fWAR season as a starter and with pitchers you just never know.

[AdamK]

Well thank goodness he got that out of his system. Full speed ahead on getting Brian back in the rotation, then.

Yes I'm kidding. Why does this notion keep cropping up?

Thinking it may be better to have the batters toss the ball to themselves at the plate, rather than let Brian pitch on that day. You know, for the sake of preserving his arm.

[Frobby]

Well thank goodness he got that out of his system. Full speed ahead on getting Brian back in the rotation, then.

Yes I'm kidding. Why does this notion keep cropping up?

Because 2011 wasn't the only year Matusz pitched as a starter. He was off to a decent start in 2009-10 as a starting pitcher, so some people view 2011 as an anomaly caused by bad coaching by Connor, or Matusz being woefully out of shape when he came to camp that spring, or Buck's TTTP fetish messing him up, or whatever.

I'm sort of in that camp, but I also feel that Matusz simply doesn't seem to have the feel for the strike zone vs. RHB and command of his change-up consistently enough anymore for me to think he'd be anything more than a guy who might post a 4.50ish ERA as a starter, and could do worse. So, I'd rather leave him in a role where he has proven he can do a reasonably good job. But I do understand why the topic gets raised.

[Bradysburns]

I'm just thinking here but I am guessing for every "quality" reliever who wilted when put in the closer role the rest of us can name three that took over the job with little or no issues.

Great point. He could be a great closer and maybe I'm just paranoid. I just loved the back end of DOD and Britton and would rather not see us futz with that if at all possible. Like others have said, I would only like to see us trade Britton for a "wow" offer - one that could include wining and dining. Barring that, keep 'em both please!

[Can_of_corn]

Great point. He could be a great closer and maybe I'm just paranoid. I just loved the back end of DOD and Britton and would rather not see us futz with that if at all possible. Like others have said, I would only like to see us trade Britton for a "wow" offer - one that could include wining and dining. Barring that, keep 'em both please!

Having a great bullpen certainly lowers my blood pressure from the 7th inning on.

[Hallas]

That sounds good but just isn't true. Merely getting excess value can't be the goal. You still have to field an entire team within a set budget.

While this is true, I think that every year, we have to adjust ourselves to the new normal of what we should be expected to spend. The fact is that payrolls have increased 10-15% every year. We spent 118M in 2015. Just to keep afloat with average salary increases, we would need to spend 125-130M. So our baseline for 2015 should be 125-130M. If we aren't prepared to spend this minimum, then we shouldn't have the same expectations, and we should go back to a more strict small-market mentality like the Rays. That said, we appear to be in a significantly better financial position than the average small-market team thanks to a pretty favorable TV deal, so pushing our payroll to 130, or even 140, should not be a hugely difficult thing for FO/ownership to accept.